Coronavirus (2021) thread

[BlueAnorak]

This effect is called "population heterogeneity" and is included in the more sophisticated models of covid. It reduces the level at which herd immunity effects can be seen.

It's been used quite a bit by "sceptics" to entirely wrongly argue that herd immunity had already been achieved at various points in the pandemic, but the fundamental concept is sound. I'm not aware of any dynamics which imply repeated cycles as you suggest.

See for instance

Science | AAAS

science.sciencemag.org

Looks like the modellers forgot about it in their recent models then. :-D
The downside being that when the weather gets cooler larger areas become susceptible to the spread of the virus and it can make a come back.

 

[Healdplace]

Sadly England hospital deaths today are well up.

And as we feared are over 100 for the first time since late winter.

On 117.

This is always a big day with weekend catch up and these come from the days when we were double the cases of now.

It is tragic but not a surprise. As the numbers I posted daily last week showed we were nearly there and would get there.

Let us hope it does not go much higher though. As the media will make much out of this I expect.

 

[Healdplace]

ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS

117 with 22 from the North West.

Last week it was 73 with 17 NW and week before 37 with 16


Again as expected NE & Yorkshire had by far the most. But Midlands and London high too.

You can see the NW percentage of the total is falling.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Sadly England hospital deaths today are well up.

And as we feared are over 100 for the first time since late winter.

On 117.

This is always a big day with weekend catch up and from the days when we were double the cases of now.

It is tragic bit not a surprise.

Let us hope it does not go much higher though. As the media will make much out of this I expect.

And still only just on a par with a normal flu season. I wonder if it will keep it up for 3 months?
And again we don't know how many are unvacinated/ vaccinated though the current reports seem to indicate 80%+ unvacinated.

 

[Healdplace]

SCOTLAND DATA

HAPPILY STILL ON TRACK DOWN

7 deaths - was 13 last week


1044 cases - was 1604 last week

5,6% positivity - was 9.2% last week - BIG fall here

472 patients - down 3 on day -was 529 last week

63 ventilated icu - down 2 on day - was 47 last week


This is still looking positive.

 

[Healdplace]

There seems some growing support for the Euros factor in cases rising. Now falling back to where they might have been without.

Allegedly the ratio of positive cases was 9 times higher in males during the big spike in cases but has fallen back close to parity now.

If so that is pretty suggestive as to cause.

Presumably there must be good data on that kind of change.

Unfortunately if true then we might not yet have seen the peak in those other parts of the UK yet to have peaked - though the effect in Scotland and North West might be more real as they were first in to Delta so may well be expected as first out.

Let us hope the ones who caught it fast are the same as the ones who would have caught it more slowly otherwise. And any rise will be modest.

 

[Healdplace]

ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS TODAY

117

By region:- 6 East, 19 London, 20 Midlands, 36 NE & Yorkshire, 22 North West, 7 South East, 7 South West

Highest in the NE & Yorkshire in months but follows them overtaking NW in patients last week as my hospital data daily showed so was inevitable.

Midlands and London have done the same in the past couple of days to put NW down to 4th. So their deaths will overtake the NW too soon as these things follow a path from cases to admissions to inpatient numbers (how many stay in and for how long versus those discharged) to ventilator rises to deaths.

Over maybe 3 or 4 weeks.

In the short term this will raise the death numbers daily. But the impact of lower cases is yet to be seen (next week or after for that on deaths to be very clear). So hopefully not a very high peak coming.

 

[Johnny Mars Bar]

Is there an argument to say that loads of young lads going out on the lash during the euros and actually catching covid - who might not have bothered to get a vaccine - is a good thing in terms of herd immunity?

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

Bulk of Covid pandemic will be behind us by September, says Prof Lockdown

THE UK is finally emerging from the pandemic – with the bulk of cases due to be behind us in months, Professor Neil Ferguson said today. Thanks to vaccines, he said “the equation has fu…

www.thesun.co.uk

I know it’s the sun but you can listen to the audio of professor lockdown and it’s interesting and positive.

He says most of this pandemic will be behind us by end of sept/ Oct, although Covid will still be with us.

 

[splinter]

Sadly England hospital deaths today are well up.

And as we feared are over 100 for the first time since late winter.

On 117.

This is always a big day with weekend catch up and from the days when we were double the cases of now.

It is tragic bit not a surprise.

Let us hope it does not go much higher though. As the media will make much out of this I expect.

Bulk of Covid pandemic will be behind us by September, says Prof Lockdown

THE UK is finally emerging from the pandemic – with the bulk of cases due to be behind us in months, Professor Neil Ferguson said today. Thanks to vaccines, he said “the equation has fu…

www.thesun.co.uk

I know it’s the sun but you can listen to the audio of professor lockdown and it’s interesting and positive.

He says most of this pandemic will be behind us by end of sept/ Oct, although Covid will still be with us.

bloody hope so.. @kevin horlocks wand hope the deaths dont go much higher @Healdplace