Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Gaylord du Bois]

Covid: UK cases fall for seventh day in a row

Despite falling numbers, the PM is urging people to "remain cautious" and "not jump to conclusions".

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Healdplace]

Full GM details


Total cases 1088 - DOWN 242 on Yesterday - when the whole NW was DOWN by 598

Pretty much right.


Wk to wk DOWN 916 when the NW is DOWN by 2375

Also about right as a split of the NW.



BOROUGH / CASES TODAY / V YESTERDAY / V LAST WEEK



BOLTON 83 / DOWN 15 / DOWN 83

BURY 81 / DOWN 16 / DOWN 37

MANCHESTER 228 / DOWN 38 / DOWN 113

OLDHAM 105 / DOWN 22 / DOWN 105

ROCHDALE 74 / DOWN 56 / DOWN 85

SALFORD 125 / UP 11 / DOWN 82

STOCKPORT 105 / DOWN 2 / DOWN 101

TAMESIDE 79 / DOWN 26 / DOWN 96

TRAFFORD 86 / DOWN 30 / DOWN 35

WIGAN 122 / DOWN 48 / DOWN 178


Five boroughs under 100 and Manchester the lowest in ages in GM on just 228.

More large week to week falls for third day running.

Salford's turn to let the side down by NOT being down both day to day and week to week like all the ret but was down big week to week like the rest,

Another obviously good day for GM with more large weekly Pop Score falls - which is the number that matters most to chart the progress of the pandemic in GM.

 

[Gaylord du Bois]

Coming from America:

​ BREAKING NEWS The C.D.C. will recommend that some vaccinated people resume wearing masks indoors under certain circumstances, reversing its earlier guidance.​ Tuesday, July 27, 2021 10:04 AM EST The change follows reports of rising breakthrough infections with the Delta variant of the virus in people who were fully immunized.

Hopefully they'll weather the storm as we have.

 

[Healdplace]

Greater Manchester

Weekly total cases:-




Bury 704 , Trafford 908, Bolton 946, Tameside 990, Rochdale 1001, Oldham 1119, Stockport 1152, Salford 1245, Wigan 1435, Manchester 2127

More very big falls today. Three now under 1000 again. Wigan well below 2000. Manchester closing in on doing so too,. Everyone is heading in the right direction today.

 

[BlueAnorak]

We could vaccinate our adolescents like almost everywhere else in the Western world is...

We could, but vaccinating children has more risk for not much benefit to the children. Yes it benefits the rest of society but is that ethical?

Covid-19 vaccines for children: hypothetical benefits to adults do not outweigh risks to children - The BMJ

As the majority of adults in multiple rich western countries have now received at least one dose of a covid-19 vaccine, the focus is turning to children. While there is [...]More...

blogs.bmj.com

 

[Healdplace]

GM Weekly Pop Data after yesterday:~

Borough / Pop Today / 7 days ago / up or down wk to wk/ Testing is % of local population who have tested positive for Covid over past year.

As ever with Pop going up is bad, going down good - the higher the number the better or worse depending on direction moving. The Pop is total cases in past week versus 100,000 POPulation to even out the comparison versus size and expected cases based on numbers living there.



Salford 481/ 708 / DOWN 227 Testing positive 12.8%

Oldham 472 / 794 / DOWN 322 Testing positive 13.4%

Rochdale 450 / 677 / DOWN 227 Testing positive 13.1 %

Tameside 437 / 700 / DOWN 263 Testing positive 11.2%

Wigan 436 / 822 / DOWN 386 Testing positive 12.6 %

Stockport 392 / 600 / DOWN 208 Testing positive 10.0 %

Manchester 384 / 580 / DOWN 196 Testing positive 13.4%

Trafford 383 / 540 / DOWN 157 Testing positive 10.1%

Bury 368 / 606 / DOWN 238 Testing positive 12.3%

Bolton 329 / 509 / DOWN 180 Testing positive 13.1%


MORE GIGANTIC FALLS IN WEEKLY POP - EVERYONE DOWN BY THREE FIGURES IN THE WEEK AND SEVERAL BY OVER 200 AND WIGAN BY 386 POP SCORE POINTS IN A WEEK IS AMAZING HIGHEST EVER
.
Everyone now under 500 and over 300 but ALL falling.

A week ago the spread was 509 to 822. Nearly 300. Now the gap is half that at just 152.


Stockport up by 36 - its lowest in ages - on 10, 043 - and Trafford up by 36 too to 10, 149.

So Stockport's lead up by 13 stays at 106 over a vastly improved Trafford.



Bolton again was the best Pop Score in GFM - just 29 - first sub 30 in a few weeks - Bolton up to 13, 146.

Bury up 32 to 12, 324.

Manchester up 41 to 13, 378 still the highest in GM.

Oldham up 44 to 13, 379 - and takes over as the highest Pop Score in GM today.

But they are so close it was by less than half a Pop Score point!



Rochdale up 33 to 13, 147.

Salford up 47 to 12, 892 and will be the next into the 13K club one day this week.

The highest POP rise today - first time all GM boroughs sub 50 Pop Score in weeks!


Tameside up 35 t o 11, 204

And Wigan up 37 - another low here for some time - to 12, 633.

 

[BobKowalski]

Good news again today and just shows yet again how inept and hopeless SAGE are with their shit forecasts. They were saying 100,000 infections a day we would be having by now.
I don't think they have got a single thing right since covid started, yet these are the imbeciles advising Boris.
The covid investigation needs to be done ASAP not next year.

That’s because we don’t have hard data, all we have is guesswork, and someone has to do the guesswork. Does the virus hibernate in summer or is it something else? Or a combination of hot weather and kids not in school around Europe? Fuck knows.

 

[BlueHammer85]

ENGLAND HOSPITAL DATA

Admissions:

836 on Sunday - was 734 Saturday and 698 last Sunday

Still rising pretty much everywhere whatever the cases are doing. Though there will be a short lag.


ADMISSIONS SUNDAY BY REGION:- (Last Sunday - SAT - THIS SUN) daily admissions


London 101 - 134 - 130

Midlands 142 - 122 - 133

NE & Yorkshire 164 - 161 - 200


AND NORTH WEST 110 - 131 - 121

So the NW still a lot of people going in but the lowest of the four main regions on latest data.

NE & Yorkshire the most and starting to show in the deaths as we saw today where they had more than the NW.

These are the only stats we need to focus on.
New cases

Good news again today and just shows yet again how inept and hopeless SAGE are with their shit forecasts. They were saying 100,000 infections a day we would be having by now.
I don't think they have got a single thing right since covid started, yet these are the imbeciles advising Boris.
The covid investigation needs to be done ASAP not next year.

And what if they tested the whole nation tommorow ? absolute wild guess - but could be as high as half a million.
Who knows. It’s guess work.

 

[Healdplace]

These are the only stats we need to focus on.
New cases


And what if they tested the whole nation tommorow ? absolute wild guess - but could be as high as half a million.
Who knows. It’s guess work.

Zoe more or less does that by getting people to report via the app.

They are registering three quarters of a million ongoing Covid infections as of today.

Which is pretty close to the latest ONS data on prevalence. Around 1 in 75 having Covid.

Its both a scary and reassuring figure at the same time.

Scary as it shows how easy it is in an average day to be in contact with someone who has it. Almost harder not to do so.

Reassuring in that only around 1000 of those multiple thousands catching it a day are going into hospital . Which is probably about a one in 50 chance of doing so even if you catch it. Maybe more like one in a 100.

And a much lower chance still of staying there for long or being in danger of succumbing to it.

Covid is an awful disease but we are closer than ever to being able to live with it not run in fear from it.

 

[Marvin]

That’s because we don’t have hard data, all we have is guesswork, and someone has to do the guesswork. Does the virus hibernate in summer or is it something else? Or a combination of hot weather and kids not in school around Europe? Fuck knows.

Those countries have high vaccination rates. Big clue!