Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Marvin]

Just how dangerous is this N 501Y? Is there evidence it allows Delta to start over and create a Delta + wave in places that it has already colonised? Or is it just a bigger risk for those parts of the world yet to be inundated with Delta cases?

And if it is a real threat how easy is it to by pass with a vaccine tweak?

Aside from the obvious long wait to get to all the vulnerable again before mid winter. If that is even possible in the short time frame we have.

The Beta variant has a number of mutations that make it more difficult to neutralise than the Delta variant but it is not as contagious. The escape variants in the Beta strain are: K417N, E484K, N501Y. These have been shown to signfiicantly reduce the effectiveness of vaccine serum in neutralising the virus in the lab.

yesterday I noticed that the number of cases that have been sequenced containing all these mutations have increased in the last fortnight but they are still very small numbers. Less than 1% samples. We need to keep an eye on this because potentially it's possible it could erode our immunity. These mutations have cropped up genomics testing before and then dropped out again a few weeks later but the virus is under selection pressure now.

I think N501Y was in the Alpha variant so it's not dramatic news, we just need to be aware that the virus could change slowly and adopt all the characteristics that make it the most slippery it can be,

 

[Healdplace]

Scotland cases on Wednesday over past month

Paints a picture of what has happened in those weeks as it started in Scotland first



30 JUN 3887 (9.8% positivity) Deaths 3 - Patients 235 - Ventilated 19

7 JULY 3799 (10% positivity) Deaths 5 - Patients 387 - Ventilated 34

14 JULY 2636 (8.1% positivity) Deaths 11 - Patients 515 - Ventilated 46

21 JULY 1686 (6.0% positivity) Deaths 7 - Patients 529 - Ventilated 51

TODAY 1179 (4.8% positivity) Deaths 9 - Patients 474 - Ventilated 63

 

[Marvin]

SCOTLAND DATA

Another Fall in cases

9 deaths - was 7 last week

1179 cases - was 1686 last week

4.8% positivity - was 6.0% last week - this is still dropping is the key

474 patients - UP 2 on yesterday - was 529 last week

63 ventilated icu - same as yesterday - was 51 last week

I like the point you make there with positivity. Observers keep commenting that it's not a real fall, it's just a fall in testing now schools are shut but falling positivity suggests that the falls in case numbers reflect the extent of the infection.

Thanks for highlighting this. I had forgotten about this statistic.

 

[Healdplace]

ENGLAND HOSPITAL 54 DEATHS BY DATE

27 JUL Adds 10 (last Week added 5 on day 1)

26 JUL Adds 23 to total 34 on day 2 (last week adds 28 to total 40 on day 2)

25 JUL Adds 8 to total 41 on day 3 (last week adds 13 to total 32 on day 3)

24 JUL Adds 6 to total 41 on day 4 (last week adds 6 to total 34 on day 4)

23 JUL Adds 6 to total 47 on day 5 (last week adds 7 to total 31 on day 5)


These are not really any big increases week to week

 

[M18CTID]

Twas a model. Not a model on the catwalk. Not a model on the miniature railway. Twas a model more like a mathematical one. How well did your last mathematical model perform?

And that's fair enough, but while I disagree with pretty much everything Bluematt has posted in this thread - because most of what he's posted is, frankly, bollocks - he does have a point on this. Although I would say it's not SAGE he should be aiming his ire at. It should be at the media, etc, for repeating the "100,000 daily cases" line as gospel like it was definitely going to happen. Even when cases started to fall 10 days ago and it was suggested on here last Monday that it might just be on the turn, it took the media days to pick up on it. A couple of days later with even more data to suggest it was on the slide with more and more posters on here picking up on it, there was still nothing from the media. Indeed, I can't remember what day it was but I think it was either last Wednesday or Thursday, I heard a trailer for Channel 4 News proclaim "As Covid cases across the country continue to rise....." Well I suppose they were right and active case numbers were increasing but I doubt that's what they meant and it's bang out of order. We see it with hospital data - @Healdplace posts up to date figures every day yet the media always tend to be a few days behind.

 

[ballbag]

It’s the Daily Mail so it’s probably nonsense, but a good laugh all the same.

Apparently that daft tart who was speaking at the “freedom rally” also believes you can cure cancer by….

… INJECTING COFFEE UP YOUR ARSE

I shit you not (lol).

Anti-vaxxer who compared medics to Nazis only worked briefly for NHS

Kate Shemirani also ran a clinic injecting clients with Botox and claims to have beaten breast cancer with coffee enemas and injecting her stomach with mistletoe.

www.dailymail.co.uk

She is a cancer. So its not worked.

 

[Healdplace]

I like the point you make there with positivity. Observers keep commenting that it's not a real fall, it's just a fall in testing now schools are shut but falling positivity suggests that the falls in case numbers reflect the extent of the infection.

Thanks for highlighting this. I had forgotten about this statistic.

I post about positivity a lot in here and I am baffled that the England data never cites it and makes it harder than ever to work it out.

The other 3 nations do offer it daily and follow WHO advice as to its importance.

Though all the multiple types of tests these days have diluted it somewhat .

I only ever use Pillar 1 & 2 in working it out for England but rarely try as it is made as hard as possible as if they do not want you to bother.

But yes it is key information in a situation such as now.

 

[SWP's back]

Literally several of these per day, get vaccinated.

 

[Healdplace]

NORTHERN IRELAND DATA

3 deaths - was 2 last week

1600 cases - was 1973 last week

9.1% positivity - was 10.5% last week

9157 weekly cases - was 9078 yesterday and 9088 last week - this has flatlined now hopefully too

73 care home outbreaks - was 72 yesterday and 40 last week

244 patients - up 1 on yesterday - was 177 last week

23 ventilated - up 2 on yesterday - was 2 last week

THIS BIG WEEKLY RISE IN VENTILATED PATIENTS IS LARGELY FROM CARE HOMES I SUSPECT WHICH ARE CREATING PROBLEMS I FEAR


BUT AT LEAST EVEN HERE HINTS OF MAYBE THE START OF A FLATTENING OFF

TO SEE THE SMALLEST BY FAR NATION TO HAVE THE MOST CASES OUT OF THE OTHER TWO POSTED WITH MUCH HIGHER POPULATIONS SHOWS THAT ZOE IS RIGHT TO HAVE N IRELAND WELL UP IN THEIR RANKINGS

AS LAST INTO THIS WAVE MAY BE THE LAST OUT SADLY

 

[Healdplace]

So total deaths so far with out of hospital England to add are 72

Last week the number was 78 - first fall on a weekday in a while here. Probably just a blip not a real one. Though we can hope.

That became just 73 in all settings as some were discounted as is not that unusual (double counting/months old etc) The 5 discounted last week were all from the England hospital data.