Coronavirus (2021) thread

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inbetween said:
The virus behaves quite predictably really. We've just had several major events such as the Euros happening within the space of a month. We've then just had a period of really good weather where people generally have gone out more and many are on holiday as well.

It's the household mixing that happens around these events that is critical, particularly because how many people go round to their parents, grandparents or mates and stay outside, wear masks or socially distance? None.

The vaccines are also finally getting into the people that mix the most and that will further drive cases down. We know that many vaccinated people go on to be asymptomatic and well asymptomatic people don't go out to get tested.

SAGE cannot model any of this, all they have is a number of infections and a predicted growth rate.
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What is SPI-B?
 
inbetween said:
The vaccines are also finally getting into the people that mix the most and that will further drive cases down.
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This is super important. We started off aiming at the most vulnerable and worked down the list. Now we need to forget that, and vaccinate the so called 'super-mixers'. It's the most efficient way of minimising the risk to the general public from the disease that is out there, and minimising the chances of further strains developing.

There's a lot of talk about making vaccines obligatory for clubs, football, and so on. The most effective move would be to start with pubs, but that's politically out of the question for Boris, we have to maintain the fairytale view of pubs and pub goers as a great British bastion of freedom...

The govt seem to just want to bypass the task of strategising a clear informational campaign, or provide any form of positive incentive, in case it goes wrong. They'll still get where we need to be, but relying on negative reinforcement and restriction will leave a nasty taste in the mouth for some.
 
inbetween said:
The virus behaves quite predictably really. We've just had several major events such as the Euros happening within the space of a month. We've then just had a period of really good weather where people generally have gone out more and many are on holiday as well.

It's the household mixing that happens around these events that is critical, particularly because how many people go round to their parents, grandparents or mates and stay outside, wear masks or socially distance? None.

The vaccines are also finally getting into the people that mix the most and that will further drive cases down. We know that many vaccinated people go on to be asymptomatic and well asymptomatic people don't go out to get tested.

SAGE cannot model any of this, all they have is a number of infections and a predicted growth rate.
Click to expand...

Arguably, in good weather families and friends mixing will take place in better ventilated conditions ie outside or inside with windows open thereby minimising spread irrespective of masks or distance.

Even at night people will have windows open and fans on.
 
An illustration of how unexpected current crash in case numbers is from one of the more interesting "amateur" (he's actually a professional modeller, but in climate science, with some background in epidemiology) modellers, James Annan:

1627462350242.png

You can see the relatively gradual progression of the epidemic to date, then just how sharp this sudden change is - bear in mind that's a log scale covering six orders of magnitude. Note the far more gradual projection forward, which is what you'd expect if it was just more people becoming immune (It's a simple SEIR model for those interested).

There are some people, including some genuine experts, claiming this isn't unexpected, but it's very notable that not one of them predicted it!

It does seem that some sharp change in behaviour (Euros, yes but that's not enough on its own), heatwave, reluctance to get tested with holidays, people being more cautious rather than less due to the high caseload at "Freedom day", some schools already out etc.

Whatever, it's very good news, but given it's not well understood, rather cautious as to what it means for the future trend.
 
Just how dangerous is this N 501Y? Is there evidence it allows Delta to start over and create a Delta + wave in places that it has already colonised? Or is it just a bigger risk for those parts of the world yet to be inundated with Delta cases?

And if it is a real threat how easy is it to by pass with a vaccine tweak?

Aside from the obvious long wait to get to all the vulnerable again before mid winter. If that is even possible in the short time frame we have.
 
New ONS study just out says most people who have got Covid twice in the past year get it more mildly and asymptomatically second time around.

You would hope that means a lower viral load each time and less risk of passing it on and that it should ultimately help Covid become endemic over the next few years until virtually absent day to day - assuming this path continues.

Or is that a way too optimistic guess on what this infers given new variants?
 
If the vaccine reduces your symptoms and thus reduces your chance to infect someone else; why is asymptomatic spread when vaccinated seemingly nonexistent but asymptomatic spread when unvaccinated is still the thing we should all be worrying about? Indeed, asymptomatic spread is actually one of the drivers for lockdown…
 
Wales Data

GOOD NEWS AND BAD

6 deaths - was 1 last week. The only bad news & Legacy of the high cases from a week or two back.

588 cases - was 941 last week - a good week to week fall again,

5.2% positivity - was 7.5% last week - This is falling too like everywhere meaning low tests are NOT the cause.

145 patients - was 107 last week

27 ventilated - was 26 last week

Also seems that Wales peaked lower (assuming they have like rest of UK - bar N Ireland who notably WERE the last to see a Delta increase perhaps due to having the sea between them and England to slow down and EU Brexit rules which ironically may have helped too)

And Wales have the best vaccination rate in the UK - so may be connected with their quicker peak and fall.
 
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