The virus behaves quite predictably really. We've just had several major events such as the Euros happening within the space of a month. We've then just had a period of really good weather where people generally have gone out more and many are on holiday as well.That’s because we don’t have hard data, all we have is guesswork, and someone has to do the guesswork. Does the virus hibernate in summer or is it something else? Or a combination of hot weather and kids not in school around Europe? Fuck knows.
It's the household mixing that happens around these events that is critical, particularly because how many people go round to their parents, grandparents or mates and stay outside, wear masks or socially distance? None.
The vaccines are also finally getting into the people that mix the most and that will further drive cases down. We know that many vaccinated people go on to be asymptomatic and well asymptomatic people don't go out to get tested.
SAGE cannot model any of this, all they have is a number of infections and a predicted growth rate.