Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Deleted member 77198]

Good news again today and just shows yet again how inept and hopeless SAGE are with their shit forecasts. They were saying 100,000 infections a day we would be having by now.
I don't think they have got a single thing right since covid started, yet these are the imbeciles advising Boris.
The covid investigation needs to be done ASAP not next year.

Your slagging off of SAGE is weird and obsessive. Do you have any idea how hard they will have been working over the last 18 months? Do you have any idea what they do?

A forecast is a model using a set of real world data to predict how things could end up (not will, but could, often as a maximum scenario). It’s like moaning that you’ve invited 5 people to a party and your missus has invited 4, last time you had the party all 9 people turned up, so you forecast that 9 people will turn up this time, but on the day 6 turn up… the forecast can only give you the forecast of 9 because that’s what the data gives you. The data cannot foresee that 2 of the people get the shits on the day of the party so can’t turn up and another is away on business so also can’t go. If people could actually start foreseeing the future you’re entering the realms of magic, and magic doesn’t exist.

SAGE work on the real world numbers that they have at any given time, in conjunction with the trajectory of the recent waves. Their models will give forecasts using that data. The data cannot foresee the future, they just forecast a prediction of it.

SAGE have got many many things right since Covid started. Calling them imbeciles makes you look like one because you clearly haven’t got a clue.

 

[grunge]

Your slagging off of SAGE is weird and obsessive. Do you have any idea how hard they will have been working over the last 18 months? Do you have any idea what they do?

A forecast is a model using a set of real world data to predict how things could end up (not will, but could, often as a maximum scenario). It’s like moaning that you’ve invited 5 people to a party and your missus has invited 4, last time you had the party all 9 people turned up, so you forecast that 9 people will turn up this time, but on the day 6 turn up… the forecast can only give you the forecast of 9 because that’s what the data gives you.

SAGE work on the real world numbers that they have at any given time, in conjunction with the trajectory of the recent waves. Their models will give forecasts using that data. The data cannot foresee the future, they just forecast a prediction of it.

SAGE have got many many things right since Covid started. Calling them imbeciles makes you look like one because you clearly haven’t got a clue.

Also using very fine remit points set by the Government.

 

[Healdplace]

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, characteristics of people testing positive for COVID-19, UK - Office for National Statistics

Estimates for England, Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland. This survey is being delivered in partnership with University of Oxford, University of Manchester, Public Health England and Wellcome Trust. This study is jointly led by the ONS and the Department for Health and Social Care (DHSC)...

www.ons.gov.uk

ONS report on infection and reinfection mentioned earlier - out this morning

 

[Healdplace]

• In the weeks prior to 12 July 2021, the percentage of people testing positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) in the UK increased in both those working and not working in patient facing healthcare roles; the increase was greater in those not working in patient facing roles.
• The number of socially distanced and physical contacts that adults and school-age children reported with people outside their household increased from March 2021 up to 12 July 2021 across the UK.
• In July 2021, 61% (95% confidence interval: 57% to 64%) of people testing positive for COVID-19 in the UK with a strong positive test reported symptoms.
• In the UK, the most commonly reported symptoms have consistently been cough, fatigue and headache; the least commonly reported symptoms have consistently been abdominal pain, diarrhoea and nausea or vomiting.
• Analysis of COVID-19 reinfections between 26 April 2020 and 17 July 2021 found that, on average, the viral load is lower for the second infection compared with the first infection.
  
  
  MAIN BULLET POINTS OF ONS REPORT
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  

 

[Healdplace]

Gov UK also reports the start this week of the delivery of 9 million vaccines donated to struggling nations.

5 million via COVAX and the other 4 million directly. Up to mid 2022.

AZ by the looks of it primarily, of course, as this is UK government subsidised to be low cost to others. And in this case free.

Being sent directly - not part pf the 5 million via COVAX - and from this week the report says will be the first batches of 4 million doses donated directly by UK to the most urgently needed locations:-

QUOTE

Indonesia will receive 600,000 doses, 300,000 will be sent to Jamaica and 817,000 are to be transported to Kenya, among other countries.

The UK is donating the University of Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine, made by Oxford Biomedica in Oxford and packaged in Wrexham, North Wales.

 

[Healdplace]

ZOE DATA (TODAY)


PREDICTED DAILY CASES

DOWN by 1891 to 60, 478. ZOE HAS FLATTENED IN PAST WEEK AROUND 62/63K BUT THIS IS ITS BIGGEST DAILY DROP LATELY

ONGOING SYPTOMATIC CASES - UP ON ZOE

From 795, 502 to 800, 689 - a rise of 5187 TODAY V 11, 828 yesterday and V 16, 056 the day before.

The rise in ongoing cases ALSO falling on Zoe now.



Highest watch zones.

1st LONDON FALL from 1201 / 1439 to 1162 / 896

2nd NORTHERN IRELAND UP from 841 / 1909 to 606 / 1919

3rd NE & YORKS FALL from 1016 / 1406 TO 995 / 1376



BUT NORTH WEST FALLS OUT OF THE TOP WATCH ZONE FOR FIRST TIME IN WEEKS TO JOIN MOST OF REST OF ENGLAND AND SCOTLAND

On 854 / 1117

The lowest 2 in UK ARE:-


Wales UP from 333 / 561 to 358 / 653

And Scotland - lowest in UK - DOWN from 363 / 659 to 307 / 528



All GM boroughs bar Manchester today are a very mixed bag on Zoe. With ups and downs

Zoe numbers all over the place and look a bit hard to interpret these days despite endless rejigging


GM BOROUGHS: ESTIMATED CASES PER MILLION POPULATION YESTERDAY V TODAY


BOLTON UP 17 636 to 20 983

BURY UP BIG 6114 to 16, 336

MANCHESTER DOWN 25, 782 to 21, 879

OLDHAM UP TO 7281 to 8993

ROCHDALE UP BIG 4277 to 13, 716

SALFORD UP 10 679 to 12 373

STOCKPORT DOWN BIG 13, 478 to 9797 - Fallen for a week straight to under 10 K for first time lately,

TAMESIDE UP slightly 13, 557 to 13 576

TRAFFORD UP 11, 494 to 12 553

WIGAN UP 10, 532 to 12 203


A lot of rises here and sone unexpected ones

Stockport gone from most in North West to second best in GM in a week.

IF the Zoe data means anything - increasingly hard to be sure it does beyond very general trends.

 

[Tommy_Catons_Perm]

Good news again today and just shows yet again how inept and hopeless SAGE are with their shit forecasts. They were saying 100,000 infections a day we would be having by now.
I don't think they have got a single thing right since covid started, yet these are the imbeciles advising Boris.
The covid investigation needs to be done ASAP not next year.

Twas a model. Not a model on the catwalk. Not a model on the miniature railway. Twas a model more like a mathematical one. How well did your last mathematical model perform?

 

[Johnny Mars Bar]

ZOE DATA (TODAY)


PREDICTED DAILY CASES

DOWN by 1891 to 60, 478. ZOE HAS FLATTENED IN PAST WEEK AROUND 62/63K BUT THIS IS ITS BIGGEST DAILY DROP LATELY

ONGOING SYPTOMATIC CASES - UP ON ZOE

From 795, 502 to 800, 689 - a rise of 5187 TODAY V 11, 828 yesterday and V 16, 056 the day before.

The rise in ongoing cases ALSO falling on Zoe now.



Highest watch zones.

1st LONDON FALL from 1201 / 1439 to 1162 / 896

2nd NORTHERN IRELAND UP from 841 / 1909 to 606 / 1919

3rd NE & YORKS FALL from 1016 / 1406 TO 995 / 1376



BUT NORTH WEST FALLS OUT OF THE TOP WATCH ZONE FOR FIRST TIME IN WEEKS TO JOIN MOST OF REST OF ENGLAND AND SCOTLAND

On 854 / 1117

The lowest 2 in UK ARE:-


Wales UP from 333 / 561 to 358 / 653

And Scotland - lowest in UK - DOWN from 363 / 659 to 307 / 528



All GM boroughs bar Manchester today are a very mixed bag on Zoe. With ups and downs

Zoe numbers all over the place and look a bit hard to interpret these days despite endless rejigging


GM BOROUGHS: ESTIMATED CASES PER MILLION POPULATION YESTERDAY V TODAY


BOLTON UP 17 636 to 20 983

BURY UP BIG 6114 to 16, 336

MANCHESTER DOWN 25, 782 to 21, 879

OLDHAM UP TO 7281 to 8993

ROCHDALE UP BIG 4277 to 13, 716

SALFORD UP 10 679 to 12 373

STOCKPORT DOWN BIG 13, 478 to 9797 - Fallen for a week straight to under 10 K for first time lately,

TAMESIDE UP slightly 13, 557 to 13 576

TRAFFORD UP 11, 494 to 12 553

WIGAN UP 10, 532 to 12 203


A lot of rises here and sone unexpected ones

Stockport gone from most in North West to second best in GM in a week.

IF the Zoe data means anything - increasingly hard to be sure it does beyond very general trends.

Is there an element with Zoe of people just stopping using it reliably? I signed up to it and was inputting 'feeling normal' every day when it prompted me, and filling out the twice weekly testing I've been doing...

but tbh over the last couple of weeks I've stopped bothering, and I've stopped bothering uploading the negative LFT results to gov.uk as well. Can't be arsed with it anymore.

I suspect this is pretty common.

 

[Healdplace]

ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS

54 with 17 North West - last week was 68 with 20 NW - week before 25 with 4

This could have been worse.

NW biggest region again is probably why down week to week

But good to see Tuesday is likely to be the highest - until possibly next Tuesday.


By age: - 20 - 39 (2), 40 - 59 ( 8) , 60 - 79 (23) 80 PLUS (21)

By region: - East 6, London 8, Midlands 4, NE & Yorkshire 12, North West 17, South East 4, South West 3


NW deaths were:- Blackpool 3, Bolton 2. Lancaster 2. Morecambe 2, Pennine Acute 2, Wirral 2 and 1 each in East Lancashire, Manchester, Mid Cheshire, Warrington

 

[Healdplace]

SCOTLAND DATA

Another Fall in cases

9 deaths - was 7 last week

1179 cases - was 1686 last week

4.8% positivity - was 6.0% last week - this is still dropping is the key

474 patients - UP 2 on yesterday - was 529 last week

63 ventilated icu - same as yesterday - was 51 last week