Coronavirus (2021) thread

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The vaccines have been shown to be almost 100% effective in the context of preventing serious illness, hospitalisations and deaths. In the context of infections though the waters become muddy and the figures drop somewhat below 60% so it depends what the outcome is.

On variants, don't forget that COVID was novel and it previously had never been seen before by the immune system. The vaccines do not kill COVID in the way that antibiotics kill bacteria which generates antibiotic resistance. The vaccines just teach your immune system that COVID viral particles are bad so they need to destroy it. Previously this wasn't the case and COVID ran free infecting cells until the immune system realised and started to respond, usually by then though it was too late and sometimes the huge immune response is what killed people (cytokine storm).

The virus cannot mutate to avoid the vaccine because it doesn't know what a vaccine is. The virus can only mutate to become more infectious and change the properties of how it infects us but this would require considerable mutated change where it almost becomes a new virus which is highly unlikely.

I wouldn't be too worried about variants, the prospect of a super deadly variant is extremely small, especially when case numbers begin to tumble globally as a result of the vaccines. It's actually more likely that we'll see new super infectious variants like Delta which are less severe but we may need boosters to protect the vulnerable. This is exactly how flu works, you never hear of a cold or flu season where young/healthy people are suddenly getting really ill and dying.
Thanks for reassurances but does that mean the unlicky 5 percent will always get a mild dose.?
Secondly I'm sure I saw a downing street video that claimed hospital patients ie serious cases would gradually change to mostly doubly vaccinated people ie not mild because all would be vaccinated.
 
Secondly I'm sure I saw a downing street video that claimed hospital patients ie serious cases would gradually change to mostly doubly vaccinated people ie not mild because all would be vaccinated.
That is simply a quirk of statistics and does nothing to undermine the effectiveness of vaccines. The only issue comes with people not understanding the maths behind it.
 
A dominant escape variant would be unusual because the goalposts are constantly moved as people get infected. The vaccines prime against the virus spike protein and to my knowledge this hasn't seen a whole lot of change and the mutation rate is quite low. If this wasn't the case then the vaccines would be practically useless against Delta however this isn't true at all. There are tens of thousands of variants out there and none really have exhibited such traits.

In any event, when it comes to mutations there's a distinct difference between a change in infectivity/severity and the bodies ability to deal with it. We've seen some escape variants appear already but none of them have become dominant so they aren't dangerous. The SA variant is meant to be more dangerous in terms of immune escape but it isn't infectious enough to outstrip Delta. This is perhaps the whole point of herd immunity where we are keeping Delta dominant to protect the population.

It's far more likely then that the virus may mutate again to become more infectious (as with Delta) and become dominant which is fine. The chances of a mutation occurring to escape the immune system and become dominant are quite low and if this happened then we must basically have a completely new virus.

People don't seem to be able to get away from the fear of a doomsday variant. I posted some quotes from one of the creators of the AZ vaccine on this thread Coronavirus (2021) thread

Basically, it's extremely unlikely that there will be a variant that can escape vaccines because to do so, it would require such a huge change to the spike protein as to make the virus itself non-functional.

Unfortunately, the media love the idea of a variant bogeyman as it allows them to scream hysterical headlines and government seem to like them too as it aligns with their published objective of 'increase sense of personal fear'. Hopefully over time some perspective will prevail because variants will never go away and we can't base all policy on a hypothetical variant. Labour were talking more nonsense when they demanded that border policy 'in case we allow a new variant in'. There will ALWAYS be new variants and so this just isn't a credible policy.
 
SCOTLAND DATA

Still down week to week but only just.

6 deaths - was 6 last week

1456 cases - was 1505 last week

6.2% positivity - was 6.4% last week - up a bit from past couple of days

474 patients - down 16 on yesterday - was 502 last week

60 ventilated icu - same as yesterday - was 57 last week

OK NUMBERS RATHER THAN GOOD TODAY BUT HOSPITAL NUMBERS ARE AT WORST FLAT WHICH IS GOOD
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS

42 with 11 from the North West

Last week 41 with 14 NW - week before 27 with 8 NW


An OK number given the high point on Tuesday - which as I pointed out then is always the high point as it has weekend catch up added from non registrations on Sundays.

There has been if anything a slowing of the week to week increase since. Which is good news along with yesterdays surprisingly big fall of patients IN hospital in England and slowing of the week to week rise.

Though NW still the highest region for deaths has yet to change regularly.

But it inevitably will soon,
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS

By region: 4 East, 7 London, 6 Midlands, 7 NE & Yorkshire, 11 North West, 1 South East, 6 South West.

IN NW:- 3 Bolton, 2 Manchester + 1 each in Cheshire East, Liverpool, Southport, St Helens, Wirral and Wigan.

By age:- 2 (aged 20 - 39), 9 (aged 40 - 59) , 16 (aged 60 - 79) and 15 (aged 80 PLUS)


IT IS QUITE NOTABLE HOW THE OVER 80 AGE GROUP WHICH USED TO BE VERY MUCH THE LARGEST AS THEY WERE THE MOST LIKELY TO HAVE CO MORBIDITIES TRIGGEED BY COVID - SO FOR OBVIOUS REASONS - IS OFTEN NOW BELOW THE 60 - 79 GROUP IN RAW NUMBERS - THOUGH BOTH ARE WELL BELOW THEIR FIGURES FOR WHEN WE LAST HAD THIS MANY CASES.

THE 40 - 59 GROUP IS DISPROPORTIONATELY HIGH WITH A SMALLER GAP.


I note this as it is a factor of both the success of the vaccines AND the quirk of lower numbers appearing to cause disproportionate changes to the risk.

They are not doing. But it is why people see most patients being double vaccinated yet going into hospital as a concern when it is just forgetting there are now FAR more vaccinated versus unvaccinated people so the proportions are bound to change because of that tilting things.

It is a form of statistical optical illusion. You KNOW the truth but SEE the lie.

After all 1% of 1000 is 10 and 1% of a million s 1000

I000 is a LOT more than 10 but they are exactly the same versus the number they are a fraction from.


THIS is what fools people into panic over vaccinated people in hospital. It is not what your senses are being fooled into thinking it is. Just maths.
 
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NORTHERN IRELAND DATA

3 deaths - was 1 last week

1101 cases - was 1357 last week - Hopeful

7.2% positivity - was 8.6% last week - Good sign this is falling here now.

8854 seven day rolling cases - was 9142 yesterday & 9393 last week - Good to see this fall too

85 CARE HOME OUTBREAKS - was 80 yesterday & 43 LAST WEEK -

AS I KEEP POSTING THIS IS THE BIG CONCERN AS IT JUST KEEPS GOING UP AND NOBODY SEEMS TO BE NOTICING OR ACTING AT LEAST

232 patients - was 234 yesterday & 163 last week

25 ventilated - was 25 yesterday & 8 last week
 
Falls on zoe noted for East Ayrshire and Glasgow are still absolutely rapid. No idea how good an indicator that is these days, but it's good to see it going that way than the opposite in any case. The drop in Glasgow area is almost vertical. Pleasing.

Under no illusion that it won't tick back up at some point, but the longer it drops the better and also maybe helps control how big an uptick it leads to. Ie starting from a low a base as possible before if/when it goes back up.

Screenshot_20210730-151243_COVID Symptom Study.jpg
 
NORTHERN IRELAND WEEKLY CASES BY AGE RANGE

0 - 19 (2546) 28.8%

20 - 39 (3777) 42.6%

40 - 59 (1779) 20.1%

60 - 79 (609) 6.9%

80 PLUS (140) 1.6%



THIS IS WHY I AM WORRIED - YES IT IS PARTLY THAT STATUSTICAL ILLUSION I MENTIONED JUST BEFORE.

BUT THE NUMBERS OVER 60 ARE GOING UP A LOT AND ARE MORE THAN 3 TIMES THE PERCENTAGE THEY WERE A FEW WEEKS AGO

THE BROAD PATTERN IS THE SAME BUT THOSE NUMBERS AND THE CARE HOME ESCALATION = THE WORRYING JUMP UP IN PAST WEEK OR SO IN VENTILATORS AND NOW DEATHS IN NORTHERN IRELAND SADLY

SOME WERE INEVITABLE BUT THE CARE HOME OUTBREAKS WILL BE DRIVING THEM
 
So today's deaths with out of hospital England to come is 55.

Last week it was 49.

That became 64 on all settings later. 56 of them from England with 15 out of hospital added.
 
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