Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Today's 3 nations cases total with England to come is 3381

It was 3597 last week.

England later added 32, 792 to total 36, 389


Yesterday England added 27, 524 to the three nation total of 3593 to total 31, 117


As you can see numbers are pretty flat.
 
From CDC in the USA:

The Delta variant is as contagious as chickenpox and may be spread by vaccinated people as easily as the unvaccinated, an internal C.D.C. report said.

Delta variant is more transmissible than the viruses that cause MERS, SARS, Ebola, the common cold, the seasonal flu and smallpox, according to the document.

(I presume they mean spread by vaccinated people who are infected despite being vaccinated, not by vaccinated people who are not infected because they were vaccinated.)
 
On 24 Jan we had 30,004 cases - similar number to now.

We had just about been at the peak of deaths and hospitalisations in that wave but only knew that later. And a week or two earlier cases had been 20K or more higher driving those patient and death peaks 2 - 3 weeks on.

Looks hopefully pretty similar to now in profile.

Using two days before (as 24 Jan was a Sunday so 22 Jan was also a Friday

THEN there were 38, 257 in hospital v now 5916

THEN there were 4076 on ventilators v now 869

THEN there were 1401 deaths v 68 today

THAT IS THE VACCINE EFFECT FOR ANYONE STILL PONDERING IF IT IS WORTH HAVING ONE
 
The positivity data for England by the way is apparently 9.2% today - down from 9.5% yesterday,

It peaked 11 days ago on 19 July at 11.8%

This is NOT just fewer tests as so many seem to think. The fall is likely caused by many things but it is for real not just fewer tests.

Yesterday in here I posted the week to week positivity changes for Wales and Scotland if you want to look and see how they have been following a similar track - though slightly offset as Scotland fell first,

Just as North West did in the England regions.

Nobody is counting any chickens but I think optimism is growing out there we may have seen the worst of Delta,
 
Regionally the falls are fairly modest and fairly evenly split between the England regions.

Yorkshire, East Midlands and South West actually went UP today. Though Yorkshire by just 10.

North West fell by just 215 - pretty typical.

Week to week it fell by 799. From 4172 to 3373.

Greater Manchester a fair but not amazing share of those numbers.

Down just 50 of the 213 since yesterday. Should be nearer 80/90.

And down week to week 292 of the 799 which is just a tad short of about the 330 expected.

Most places down week to week but by less than the last few days which is to be expected as you obviously CANNOT fall by 100 every week if you only start in the 200s!

Indeed Bury and Salford the only two UP on last week.

Bolton posted its fifth successive sub 100 number, Best run since Delta arrived there.

Bury its 8th successive sub 100 total. So UP in its case on last week is by just 8.

And Trafford its fifth in the last six numbers.

But nobody by huge amounts today.

Indeed Stockport had the best of it today down 61 week to week.

Solid progress pretty much all round.
 
Sky's take on the numbers by the way.

Lots of cases going under the radar. We are living atop a powder keg of unseen cases.

Perhaps. But....

THIS is why the positivity numbers matter as do the trends and awareness that things like the ONS data survey today tell you what was happening 2 weeks ago not as of now. And, unless you look at the way tests are accumulated over 5 days to get the numbers released daily then not to see the actual day to day trend as you are looking partly at last week all the time.

You would think after 18 months of this pandemic TV Companies might be aware of how it all works. But that involves actually finding out and there are far more important stories to chase obviously.

For those pondering as in the posts last night WHY I bother to seek out and post lots of data I went looking for it to inform myself. Not to post in here. Because I knew the media would handle the pandemic this way and I wanted to look for the data direct to be sure I was seeing what was happening not what they wanted to tell us was happening or had had the nous to even look to find even if someone was telling us.

Having worked on TV shows I knew it was much easier to say what you are told to say. Not check if it is real.
 
Healdplace said:
The positivity data for England by the way is apparently 9.2% today - down from 9.5% yesterday,

It peaked 11 days ago on 19 July at 11.8%

This is NOT just fewer tests as so many seem to think. The fall is likely caused by many things but it is for real not just fewer tests.

Yesterday in here I posted the week to week positivity changes for Wales and Scotland if you want to look and see how they have been following a similar track - though slightly offset as Scotland fell first,

Just as North West did in the England regions.

Nobody is counting any chickens but I think optimism is growing out there we may have seen the worst of Delta,
Click to expand...
I'm optimistic, I don't know quite why, but I think that burst of big events and summer living may have helped the wave blow itself out.

But also we have end of school meaning we are no longer packing the kids into schools, then sending them home to their parents who go back to the workplace and so on.

It's for that same reason, I am cautious on the data. I do feel we first ought to consider that the drop can be explained due to the sudden stop in lat flow tests by school kids, who had a much higher prevalence than the rest of the population.

Either way, they are an unvaccinated population, who are super social and generally fairly uncautious in their daily lives. They are no longer being packed into small spaces and literally moved around in herds. That is going to make a massive difference in the course of the next six weeks and hopefully it is more than enough to save us from a healthcare disaster.
 
feelymcfeel said:
That is simply a quirk of statistics and does nothing to undermine the effectiveness of vaccines. The only issue comes with people not understanding the maths behind it.
Click to expand...
Apologies if my math does not Reach the standard required to understand statistics but in layman terms what part of ", those who have been doubly vaccinated are likely to be an increasing proportion of hospital patients after catching CV? " can be misunderstood?
 
SilverFox2 said:
Apologies if my math does not Reach the standard required to understand statistics but in layman terms what part of ", those who have been doubly vaccinated are likely to be an increasing proportion of hospital patients after catching CV? " can be misunderstood?
Click to expand...
Wasnt meant as a dig mate, apologies if it came across that way.

Assume a population of 1000, 90% vaccinated. Assume a vaccine reduces the chance of hospitalisation from 20% to 10%.

10% of 900 is more than 20% of 100. The vaccine has done its job but as more people are vaccinated the absolute number of people in hospital that are vaccinated is greater.
 
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