Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Healdplace]

From the debate I have seen out there it is becoming thought most likely that Covid is in effect like the cold - unbeatable through its endemic nature - in that we will all catch it every few years uless we live in a bubble.

So the tactic needed is to find equilibrium with it not annihilation by creating ever better vaccines - aimed not to kill it off (as trying might drive worse variants by giving them a chance to dominate) but to minimise risk from the symptoms allowing us to brush it off not die. As that is not an aim of the virus so it will not be deliberately aiming at destroying its host.

The idea of reaching herd immunity is being seen by many out there as not really valid in the sense that millions catching colds annually (another type of corona virus) has not created immunity for anybody as you get some short term help from your immune system naturally (or primed by vaccines as we are doing with covid) but there will always be a next time opportunity for the upgraded model that comes later.

This is scary and welcome at the same time.

Scary as the risk is a deadly variant that turns covid into a serious threat to civilisation at levels of say 33% mortality will always be there. So we need a FAR better global awareness and action plan to stop an epidemic becoming a pandemic when we do hit that point as is inevitable some time in the future.

But also welcome as it means we will HAVE to accept it as another risk in life but only a risk that becomes more dangerous as we get older so we need to act more sensibly - just as we do with so many other things that get more of an issue as we age.

So once over that transition from the old normal to the new normal it will just become THE normal.

 

[west didsblue]

German officials did. Macron gave it a kicking. The EU via the EMA did none of those things. The UK agency also imposed caveats on the AZ vaccine. The EMA did not. The US has refused to give the AZ vaccine authorisation.

Is it a scandal? Yes, especially the US decision. Is it a scandal of AZ and the UK’s making with its loud attempts to link AZ vaccine with Brexit? To a large extent, yes. The Brexit claim, the unbalanced contracts which went against UK’s previous commitments, and AZ’s trial data and production difficulties invited retaliation. Result? The unnecessary trashing of the AZ vaccine in part for political purposes. But if the UK hadn’t trumpeted it for political purposes to begin with and worked with Europe, then maybe a lot of this could have been avoided.

We keep picking fights we can’t win. It’s fucking dumb.

Right now, the EU is happily pointing out that the EU has a higher vaccination rate than the US. Countries like Ireland, Belgium, Spain have caught up and jumped ahead of the UK. Others will as well. Meanwhile, the rest of the world is lagging behind and that is the real scandal making all this faux boasting between the richer countries somewhat depressing, if predictable.

Sad but true.
The real losers are the populations of the poor countries whose leaders have jumped on the anti AZ bandwagon as a result of the unnecessary and dangerous dick waving contest in Europe, the UK and the US.
I see they've rebadged the vaccine to Vaxzevria, presumably as an attempt to distance it from the controversies.

 

[Healdplace]

ZOE APP DATA

More falls here today

Predicted cases down 2788 to 50, 041 - fallen daily now for over a week from nearly 63K

Ongoing symptomatic cases down 11, 843 to 782, 399 - started falling in last couple of days after rising more and more slowly for previous week. From a high of 806, 741.

The two highs were the most Zoe has ever recorded.

 

[Healdplace]

Zoe regional data today

In the regions Zoe also shows everyone down.

Northern Ireland top region - UP AT 681 / 1937 FROM 632 / 1901


London (top England region) DOWN AT 910 / 1126 FROM 989 / 1209

NE & Yorkshire (only other region with London and N Ireland in top watch zone) DOWN to 814 / 1072 FROM 843 / 1202

North West is out of the top red zone and DOWN to 711 / 962 FROM 774 / 1031 First time below 1000 here in a week or two.

The other regions just a bit below there.

IN the lowest watch zones still are:-

Wales UP to 335 / 629 FROM 292 / 577

But by far the best is Scotland - who are also UP for first time in 2 weeks - today at 312 / 406 FROM 230 /427

 

[Deleted member 77198]

Appreciated response and I'm not trying to start an argument.

I'm just wondering that if 80%, as was last I knew, were vaccinated, how is it 20% unvaccinated are the mutant carriers (or blamed) and there's not 20% more dead if the virus, Delta or otherwise, is that extreme?

As I said, things don't add up somewhere.

Yeah no worries mate, never thought you were starting an argument. Always best to ask questions to get answers rather than speculate or read speculation. There are a lot of very knowledgeable posters in this thread, it’s been excellent in here through the pandemic, I’ve learnt more in here than from every news outlet in the country combined.

 

[Deleted member 77198]

No Covid traces found in railway stations or trains

Heavily touched areas like escalator handles, ticket machines and benches were swabbed for the virus.

www.bbc.co.uk

That’s interesting and encouraging. Good to know the trains and stations are cleaned to a high standard despite them being late all the time.

I bet they haven’t done this study on the bloody filthy Stagecoach 11 (Alty-Stockport) bus service. I get on the first buses at 05:45 sometimes and they haven’t been cleaned properly from the day before. On the top decks at the back there’s always scum on the corners of the floor (and that’s before I sit there!)

 

[Deleted member 77198]

THAT is super interesting and I wonder how it will be explained away to satisfy any doubters.

I'm not pro or against anything, I'm just trying to navigate through the shit, like everyone else.

You know, for people that "don't understand the science" when we've been told how much these viruses remain on hard surfaces for an x amount of time and all that...

Varying time periods depending on varying conditions have been found, from mere hours, up to 28 days, they have found it may remain on surfaces if untreated

The effect of temperature on persistence of SARS-CoV-2 on common surfaces - Virology Journal

Background The rate at which COVID-19 has spread throughout the globe has been alarming. While the role of fomite transmission is not yet fully understood, precise data on the environmental stability of SARS-CoV-2 is required to determine the risks of fomite transmission from contaminated...

virologyj.biomedcentral.com

So for them to find no traces shows that cleaning of the stations/trains and good hand washing/sanitising by commuters must be high or the air conditions must be good to keep the surface spread low.

We’ve been very cautious at work. Our cleaners work overtime to ensure all door handles and stair rails are cleaned often and thoroughly and we’ve all got into the routine of washing/sanitising hands often.

 

[Healdplace]

WALES DATA

NB THIS IS TWO DAYS OF DATA AS USUAL ON MONDAY _ COVERING ALL WEEKEND

1 death - was 2 last week

1106 cases - was 1130 last week

4.6% positivity - was 5.1% last week

 

[BerkshireBlue]

I did read the article, it's the Imperial researchers who "found no coronavirus contamination", implying they did the analysis, how else could they make that deduction?

Imperial College London researchers examined the results of the tests - which took place in January and June - and found no coronavirus contamination of any surface or airborne virus particles.

You know I posted my original post a joke right?
but you're jumping to a conclusion that you have no evidence for. It clearly states ICU examined results it does not imply they did the tests and why would they? ICU are not in the business of going out sampling trains for viruses they analyse data and results.

 

[Healdplace]

ZOE DATA GM BOROUGHS:

ESTIMATED ACTIVE CASES PER MILLION POPULATION YESTERDAY V TODAY


BOLTON DOWN 22 156 to 18 683

BURY DOWN 25 822 to 20 318


MANCHESTER UP 16 673 to 17 887

OLDHAM DOWN 7911 to 5921 - Oldham now best in GM and only Stockport also sub 5 figures

ROCHDALE UP 19 494 to 19 551 -

SALFORD DOWN 11 827 to 11 553

STOCKPORT DOWN 9919 to 9492 -

TAMESIDE UP 7300 to 12 460 Big jump up here according to Zoe! (And at 93 cases yesterday was one of the lowest in real data - Zoe has constantly got Tameside wrong).

TRAFFORD DOWN 13, 076 to 12 168

WIGAN UP 10 250 to 14 237


CHESHIRE EAST (For Andy) Last few days: - 10 765 - 14 311 - 11 382 - 13 883 - 15750 - 14 984 -13 533

TODAY:- DOWN to 11 587



CHORLEY IS THE WORST IN THE NORTH WEST outside GM UP on 28, 881

LIVERPOOL up slightly to 15 511 from 14 494


They CAN see coming trends and Zoe works best to suggest paths of very general trends. Not actual numbers.

And recall these are NOT cases today or this week but total ongoing cases in the boroughs.