Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Healdplace]

NORTHERN IRELAND DATA

THIS IS NOT LOOKING SO GOOD - WHY IS NOBODY TAKING THIS CARE HOME DISASTER SERIOUSLY IN THE PRESS?

5 deaths - was 0 last week

872 cases - was 639 last week

9.6% positivity - was 6% last week

8525 weekly cases - was 9242 last week

97 CARE HOME OUTBREAKS - WAS 85 FRIDAY - WAS 59 LAST WEEK

- THIS IS ESCALATING DAY AFTER DAY AS I HAVE BEEN MENTIONNG IN HERE FOR TWO OR THREE WEEKS NOW AND NO MEDIA STORIES. WHERE ARE THEY?

202 patients - was 232 Friday (last report) & 208 last week

23 Ventilated - was 25 Friday & 16 last week

 

[Healdplace]

A really good day in Greater Manchester today - apart from Stockport,

Zoe had them high in past days but today they had the worst day in the county.

Everywhere else falls quite big. 7 of the ten boroughs under 100 for first time in weeks.

Even Manchester under 200 for first time in ages.

But Stockport up day to day and week to week and has by far the biggest Pop Score rise of the 10 today,

Not a huge uptick in Stockport I should stress (107 to 123 cases) but it stands out as the only one to go this way on such a good day of low numbers and falls and having the highest Pop Score here is extremely unusual for what is almost always one of the lowest scorers in Stockport.

Hopefully just a one off data blip as can happen - especially given Stockport's best vaccinated numbers in GM.

But I have no idea where this came from otherwise.

 

[KS55]

Kind of suggests PHE totally got the virus wrong at the start. Clearly mainly airbourne spread even in WInter.

Is this correct?
It might equally suggest that the regular swabbing of vulnerable areas has been successful.
By the same token the research included 1 hour air samples which all proved negative.

 

[Healdplace]

North West today down 488 to 2451 - lowest score in 43 days.

GM down 254 of that 488 (well over average) to 906.

This is the first sub 1000 score in over 6 weeks and the lowest on a Monday in 2 months.

North West today is down week to week by 830 from 3281.

GM is down of that by 424 - which is just as good and over par as day to day.

I guess Stockport were just unlucky today not to share in these across the board good news numbers.

Might make up for it tomorrow as its recent numbers have been very good so it was due an off day as the vagaries of counting and test data delays can cause them to happen now and then.

Why we look at weekly Pop scores for trends.

 

[Healdplace]

ENGLAND HOSPITAL NUMBERS

Things WERE going extremely well - until today!

ADMISSIONS

IMPORTANT TO RECALL THESE ARE 2 DAYS OLD SO FROM SATURDAY. SO WHEN WE GET TODAYS (ON WEDNESDAY) BASED ON WHAT FOLLOWS THEY WILL BE WELL UP I FEAR

Saturday week 734 - Thursday 758 - Friday 650 - Saturday 593

Great Falling numbers and big SAT to SAT fall.

Here are how the main regions moved SAT - THU - FRI - SAT

LONDON 134 - 129 - 126 - 124

MIDLANDS 122 - 134 - 111 - 119

NE & YORKSHIRE 161 - 154 - 125 - 149


And

NORTH WEST 131 - 135 - 117 - 88 (First sub 100 in NW for a few week or two)



That looks very encouraging until you see the IN PATIENT DATA - which goes beyond Saturday and includes Sunday and Monday. So is 48 hour more current than the admissions.

Monday is always the big admissions day from people who wait the weekend to act. So no surprise there.

And this Monday was up from the numbers above as you will see in my post below.

So do not get too excited at those falls above.

 

[Healdplace]

ENGLAND HOSPITAL DATA - IN PATIENTS DAILY TOTAL

Last Monday - Friday - Saturday - Sunday - Today

5055 - 5111 - 5057 - 5090 - 5309 (5309 PATIENTS IN ENGLAND HOSPITAL AS OF TODAY)

So it fell to almost below where it was last week but had a big rise today on 219.

Last weeks equivalent numbers were:

3813 - 4401 - 4476 - 4725 - 5055


As you can see a MUCH bigger week to week rise 1242 versus the week to today - just 254.

Very good news obviously,

AND the admissions rise today of 219 - the majority of the entire rise from last week - is also lower than the 330 increase of Sunday to Monday alone last week.

Especially as that followed rises all the other days that fell rather than rose this weekend,

So there is a pretty good story emerging from all of that when you see the bigger picture.

Though the regional picture matters too - see my next post below.

 

[Healdplace]

ENGLAND HOSPITAL DATA IN PATIENTS BY REGION



Here are how the main regions moved LAST MON - FRI - SAT - SUN - TODAY


LONDON 957 - 1029 - 1034 - 1023 - 1157

MIDLANDS 959 - 931- 901 - 911 - 946

NE & YORKSHIRE 1152 - 1111 -1112 - 1117 - 1146


And

NORTH WEST 871 - 870 - 828 - 864 - 888


So - what do we take from that?

North West is STILL the lowest of the four big England regions - the GOOD news.

But has risen by 60 in the two days after those admissions numbers posted above that only go up to Saturday - the BAD news.

This is an unexpected reverse in the region in past 48 hours. Might be just a blip like the Stockport numbers today. We will see as the week goes on.

NOTE:-

Midlands and NE & Yorkshire have fallen across the weekend which is the surprise. Though they ARE both up in past 48 hours similar too the NW having done - though both slightly less of an increase. 45 & 34 versus the NW 60.

And London far and away now seem to be driving the hospital numbers.

Up 200 across the weekend of the rise which was actually only 198 across those days.

It is not uncommon for numbers to fall mid week.

We will have to see where this goes but London is now very clearly the main focus of Delta in hospital terms - a change in the past week or so as cases fell and it became the highest cases number every day ahead of the North West.

 

[Healdplace]

ENGLAND VENTILATED NUMBERS


Last Monday - Friday - Saturday - Sunday - Today

712 - 785 - 789 - 769 - 791 (791 PATIENTS ON VENTILATORS IN ENGLAND HOSPITAL AS OF TODAY)

So it fell to almost below where it was over the weekend and up 22 today from the bigger admssions.

Last weeks equivalent numbers were:

543 - 625 - 659 - 675 - 712


So a weekly rise last week of 169 versus this week of just 79

Clearly a much lower increase in Ventilator patients wk to wk along with the fall in patient increases.


Here are how the main regions moved LAST MON - FRI - SAT - SUN - TODAY


LONDON 161 - 187 - 189 - 184 - 204 Up 43 in week and 17 over wknd

MIDLANDS 129 - 145 - 144 - 144 - 145 Up 16 in week and 0 over wknd

NE & YORKSHIRE 148 - 159 - 158 - 143 - 142 DOWN 6 in the week and 17 over the weekend.

VERY UNEXPECTED TURNAROUND IN YORKSHIRE AND NORTH EAST

Though their case numbers have also plummeted in the daily cases as I pointed out in the regional review yesterday.


And

NORTH WEST 131 - 129 - 131 - 137 - 135 UP 4 in the week and 6 over the weekend.


So North West not out of the woods yet.

And as the hospital deaths we saw earlier are still the most in the NW and the above data will take a week or so to translate into fewer deaths once it starts to go down. Which it is not yet quite doing.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Is this correct?
It might equally suggest that the regular swabbing of vulnerable areas has been successful.
By the same token the research included 1 hour air samples which all proved negative.

It could indeed indicate regular swabbong and cleaning works. As usual so much is omitted from an information bulletin that you can't check out the process and identify what they did and when.

 

[Healdplace]

UK HOSPITAL NUMBERS

PATIENTS LAST WEEK V TODAY


ENGLAND 5055 v 5309

N IRELAND 208 v 202

SCOTLAND 475 v 407

WALES 120 v 140


TOTAL 5858 V 6058 (up 200 week to week)


VENTILATED LAST WEEK V TODAY


ENGLAND 712 V 791

N IRELAND 14 V 23

SCOTLAND 65 V 60

WALES 24 V 19


TOTAL 815 V 893 (up 78 week to week)