Coronavirus (2021) thread

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No. Vaccines make you less ill if you catch it when vaccinated. If they didn't 1000+ would be dying every day at the moment
Yes, but most young people will argue that their immune systems will handle it. My main reason for taking the vaccine was more societal than personal. If the virus in transmitting between vaccinated just as much as the unvaccinated, then it defeats my purpose somewhat. There is also concern that mutations can occur between the vaccinated.
 
Yes, but most young people will argue that their immune systems will handle it. My main reason for taking the vaccine was more societal than personal. If the virus in transmitting between vaccinated just as much as the unvaccinated, then it defeats my purpose somewhat. There is also concern that mutations can occur between the vaccinated.
25% of those dying are under 35 at the moment.
6% of cases get Long Covid regardless of age.
 
I've just had a look at the ONS data on age of death involving Covid. As you probably know, that means any death where death is mentioned on the death certificate.

The readily available data stretches back to the week ending 12th Feb.

Overall, there are 395 attributed deaths in the 15-44 age group.

Given an estimated 21.5 millions in this age group, I make it that the risk of death in this group overall since February is around 0.0018%.

Of course, we don't know what % of those who died did so primarily because of Covid. We also don't know what proportion had been vaccinated, either wholly or in part.

I personally would hesitate to label anyone as being 'selfish' given these uncertainties, but others appear to have no such qualms.

sorry but your stat is nonsense. It means nothing. You need to be looking at infection fatality rate or case fatality rate for risk of death. Risk of death is from people that have the virus at the time not the whole population.
 
Last edited:
Sat Aug 07, 2021 3:51 pm

What's the story with the delta variant being transmissible between vaccinated and unvaccinated alike? Is this a game changer regarding vaccines? Also, this new variant from Columbia is apparently suspected to be able to evade the current crop of vaccines, although this has not been confirmed. Have to say, I'm so f**king over this.

'transmissible between vaccinated and unvaccinated alike' is the wrong way to say it.

Delta IS transmissible by the vaccinated but at much lower rate. UK last week estimated vaccinated people likely caught and passed on the virus 50% as much as the unvaccinated.

Personally, I think that's likely to underestimate the effectiveness of the vaccine at preventing transmission - Delta is the first time we've let a variant spreading through a vaccinated population, but also a population in a non-lockdown state, millions crowding into the pubs and mate's houses for summer and the Euros.

The chance of getting serious illness is reduced in line as we thought at the beginning - ten times (or so - likely to be more) less likely to get a serious case. It's too early and too big a question to say how much less likely to get long Covid you are.

All the focus on death numbers has led people to form the impression that this was the only significant risk COVID poses to people. That is a big mistake to make. Studies are showing those who 'recover' fully may incur a whole load of nasty damage to their bodies, from grey matter loss, to permanent lung damage, to cardiovascular inflammation. It's my assumption that unfortunately in years to come we are going to see heart disease numbers rise significantly.

Ironically, for people who assume their immune system will handle it, the real worry is the damaged caused to us by our immune system - in response to COVID.

It frequently, randomly provokes a misdirected and over the top reaction from the immune system, and that is what is likely to be leading to the damage to the organs that doctors are seeing in adults of all ages, and this is what is behind what we call "severe covid", "long covid" - and everything else between.

The vaccine is not perfect - no such thing is possible. But it is an awful lot safer than any of the variants. Unwanted effects will occur, but at a massively lower rate.
 
Cases across the regions:


Change in last 24 hrs V seven days ago



SOUTH


East DOWN 319 to 2399 V 2074

London DOWN 511 to 3898 V 3686


South East DOWN 329 to 3616 V 3214


South West DOWN 298 to 2879 V 2526


EVERY REGION UP ON LAST WEEK AGAIN





MIDLANDS



East DOWN 239 to 2404 V 2212

West UP 31 to 2585 V 2203


Modest rise for WM but both up slightly week to week



COMBINING THESE TWO INTO ONE AS THE NHS DOES TOTALS 4989 - STILL THE LARGEST REGION







NORTH



North East DOWN 150 to 1247 V 1281 - Still falling week to week JUST. Really flat.



Yorkshire DOWN 208 to 3228 V 2869 - up week to week also.


NE & YORKSHIRE as Zoe and the NHS combines these two for the hospital data and this is now the second biggest area with 4475 cases. Not far behind the Midlands.




AND



NORTH WEST DOWN 413 to 3043 V 3311 -



Falls week to week when the others are up. And behind several regions too in current numbers





Past weeks NW numbers are 3311 - 2939 - 2451 - 2265 - 3195 - 3608 - 3456 - 3043

Equivalent NW numbers a week earlier 3615 - 3464 - 3281 - 2683 - 2999 - 3588 - 3373 - 3311


Look at the week to weeks above:-


DOWN 304 - DOWN 525 - DOWN 830 - DOWN 418 - UP 196 - UP 20 - UP 83 - DOWN 268

PRETTY FLAT!





GM numbers in past week 1402 - 1160 - 906 - 901 - 1279 - 1486 - 1452 - 1187

GM numbers week before 1618 - 1410 - 1330 - 1068 - 1251 - 1381 - 1331 - 1402

Wk to wk :-


DOWN 216 - DOWN 250 - DOWN 424 - DOWN 167 - UP 28 - UP 105 - UP 121 - DOWN 215


We will see where this goes over the next 3 or 4 days when numbers tend to fall.

But week to week last week v today DOWN 216 v DOWN 215 says it all!




Total in GM from the NW cases Total 39.0%. It was 42.0% yesterday and 42.3% a week ago.

So good day for GM v NW.
 
'transmissible between vaccinated and unvaccinated alike' is the wrong way to say it.

Delta IS transmissible by the vaccinated but at much lower rate. UK last week estimated vaccinated people likely caught and passed on the virus 50% as much as the unvaccinated.

Personally, I think that's likely to underestimate the effectiveness of the vaccine at preventing transmission - Delta is the first time we've let a variant spreading through a vaccinated population, but also a population in a non-lockdown state, millions crowding into the pubs and mate's houses for summer and the Euros.

The chance of getting serious illness is reduced in line as we thought at the beginning - ten times (or so - likely to be more) less likely to get a serious case. It's too early and too big a question to say how much less likely to get long Covid you are.

All the focus on death numbers has led people to form the impression that this was the only significant risk COVID poses to people. That is a big mistake to make. Studies are showing those who 'recover' fully may incur a whole load of nasty damage to their bodies, from grey matter loss, to permanent lung damage, to cardiovascular inflammation. It's my assumption that unfortunately in years to come we are going to see heart disease numbers rise significantly.

Ironically, for people who assume their immune system will handle it, the real worry is the damaged caused to us by our immune system - in response to COVID.

It frequently, randomly provokes a misdirected and over the top reaction from the immune system, and that is what is likely to be leading to the damage to the organs that doctors are seeing in adults of all ages, and this is what is behind what we call "severe covid", "long covid" - and everything else between.

The vaccine is not perfect - no such thing is possible. But it is an awful lot safer than any of the variants. Unwanted effects will occur, but at a massively lower rate.
I'll respond to this tomorrow as it's very later where I am...but Faucci has explicitly said that the vaccinated have the same viral load as the unvaccinated
 
I'll respond to this tomorrow as it's very later where I am...but Faucci has explicitly said that the vaccinated have the same viral load as the unvaccinated.
Fauci's comment was out of the blue for me, and does not neccessarily tally with all the other opinions and statements. He needs America to wake the fuck up to Delta, and wear masks when possible.
 
There are around 21.5 million people in the 16-44 age range in England(*), so 16 deaths means you had a 0.0001% chance of dying a death 'involving' Covid.

(*) The ONS data on this topic covers the 16-44 age range.
Those 16 deaths were over five recent days. We don't know the figures for the last 18 months so it is impossible to assess the odds at this time.
 
Full GM details


Total cases 1187 - DOWN 265 on Yesterday - The whole NW was DOWN by 413

Ahead of what the fall should be - around 180


Wk to wk DOWN 215 when the NW is DOWN 268

So well over the expected fall here of about 120 here too.

So very good news for GM today .




BOROUGH / CASES TODAY / V YESTERDAY / V LAST WEEK



BOLTON 89 / DOWN 11 / UP 2

BURY 114 / UP 15 / UP 27

MANCHESTER 242 / DOWN 72 / DOWN 113

OLDHAM 99 / DOWN 40 / DOWN 13

ROCHDALE 80 / DOWN 10 / DOWN 20

SALFORD 132 / DOWN 44 / DOWN 55

STOCKPORT 116 / DOWN 50 / DOWN 26

TAMESIDE 100 / DOWN 7 / UP 17

TRAFFORD 86 / DOWN 56 / DOWN 40

WIGAN 129 / UP 10 / UP 6


Better days for most today.
 
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