Worrying going into autumn and winter.
But hopefully the boosters and new treatments can keep the deaths low
Hospital numbers are actually OK. As I said weeks ago they were always going to increase once it was not just the NW creating the cases as it was much of the Summer.
There are 6 other England regions and three of them large - NE & Yorkshire. London and Midlands. They ought to at least be double the NW increase but in reality they have edged up but not by as much as the NW did solo. And the NW has flattened off.
In the circumstances I would have expected 50K cases and 10 K in hospital.
But so far the escalation of the other regions went up and flattened off and is not obviously accelerating right now.
This could yet turn. But cases are not what they were and are not translating into hospital cases long term as stays are shorter by days due to the different age profile versus the past.
So this is not where we would be if this was 6 months ago. The vaccine has turned a serious wave into an at present manageable one.
We have to watch Scotland as their cases have risen and hospital numbers are up but so far not really any differently from England due to the same age profile.
Similar in Northern Ireland where it could be a lot worse.
Schoolchildren catching it from September are only a numbers thing UNLESS they infect more vulnerable relatives and send them into hospital. Most of them who catch it will be a number on the screen but not a problem for the NHS.
The argument I think always was letting as many catch it as do in the Summer and mitigate the numbers in the autumn/winter when the NHS will face other non Covid issues so need that breathing space.
We are on track for that tactic so far. It could yet tip the wrong way. But it might be this is going to edge up not shoot up and stay at a manageable level. Which I think sub 10K in UK hospitals would be seen as being.
Not lost hope yet. But this is a bit on the edge that is true. The return of England schools in 2 weeks will be where we start to find out.