Coronavirus (2021) thread

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roubaixtuesday said:
Good twitter thread from maths prof making the same points I've been trying to, but rather better, about why the current figures are a concern.

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I'm not that troubled. Most are in with breathing difficulties and are out after 7 days. 78% of those hospitalised have not been double vaccinated. I'd be worried if numbers were 4 or 5 times higher but they're not. Also every hospitalisation now saves 5 in late autumn improving exposure to the virus and less serious illness in the future.
We will disagree on this but each to their own.
 
Healdplace said:
Hospital numbers are actually OK. As I said weeks ago they were always going to increase once it was not just the NW creating the cases as it was much of the Summer.

There are 6 other England regions and three of them large - NE & Yorkshire. London and Midlands. They ought to at least be double the NW increase but in reality they have edged up but not by as much as the NW did solo. And the NW has flattened off.

In the circumstances I would have expected 50K cases and 10 K in hospital.

But so far the escalation of the other regions went up and flattened off and is not obviously accelerating right now.

This could yet turn. But cases are not what they were and are not translating into hospital cases long term as stays are shorter by days due to the different age profile versus the past.

So this is not where we would be if this was 6 months ago. The vaccine has turned a serious wave into an at present manageable one.

We have to watch Scotland as their cases have risen and hospital numbers are up but so far not really any differently from England due to the same age profile.

Similar in Northern Ireland where it could be a lot worse.

Schoolchildren catching it from September are only a numbers thing UNLESS they infect more vulnerable relatives and send them into hospital. Most of them who catch it will be a number on the screen but not a problem for the NHS.

The argument I think always was letting as many catch it as do in the Summer and mitigate the numbers in the autumn/winter when the NHS will face other non Covid issues so need that breathing space.

We are on track for that tactic so far. It could yet tip the wrong way. But it might be this is going to edge up not shoot up and stay at a manageable level. Which I think sub 10K in UK hospitals would be seen as being.

Not lost hope yet. But this is a bit on the edge that is true. The return of England schools in 2 weeks will be where we start to find out.
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Are you in favour of boosters for over 60s..Israel saying the boosters will give a higher level of protection for the elderly and vulnerable
 
splinter said:
Are you in favour of boosters for over 60s..Israel saying the boosters will give a higher level of protection for the elderly and vulnerable
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For the most vulnerable yes as in the very first to be vaccinated last Winter. Most likely to be in need this Winter.

But not for all over 60s unless the evidence of waning immunity here is likely to cover over the winter and is greater than presently apparent.

The supply should go to the third world who are in dire need and that will help US more too as the new variants that might set us back in 2022 are going to come from the regions who cannot afford the drugs that we have to give to them.

It is not just morally the right thing to do but also self serving as we will be on our tenth booster by the time we get the normality people crave if we sit and watch the rest of the world spawn ever increasing new versions of Covid.
 
Healdplace said:
Thank you all for for the concerns. It is much appreciated.

I have had a very severe kidney infection that hit out of nowhere a week ago and has since utterly drained me to the extent I cold barely move for days.

Been on very strong antibiotics and the lab tests were such that my GP has just put me on a second type as follow up and they want to be very sure they have eliminated it fully.

I was unable to even go on line or frankly care for much of last week but for past 48 hours have started to be able to eat and drink a little. Very little tbh. And get out of bed and go outside for some air.

Managed to watch City and that was the turning point of my recovery. Well it helped anyway.

Not out of the woods or up to posting lots yet. But am starting to download the data and catch up on what has happened in the past week,

Highlight - looks very good indeed for both GM and the NW - now actually about the sixth most infected region not the most. And still only small hospital numbers up. GM numbers just a tad up on last week - though some places -such as Stockport are slightly down.

The death numbers in England have edged up only very slightly as have patients and ventilators but nothing dramatic, Could have been a lot worse. Especially given the Scottish data Ayrshire has posted.

Going to take it easy so not over posting in next couple of days as need to see how I react to the second 5 days of antibiotics that I start later.

But will try to pop on here as I can.

Thanks once again for your concerns, But hopefully on the mend now.
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Great news that you aree feeling a bit better. Keep it up.
 
I’m in London at the minute. It is very busy and not too many wearing masks now. The train down was full and around 20%-30% wearing masks. Offices still not back to normal so that reduces the rush hour. It’s good to be here with so many visitors and people having a good time. Good for business too. I’m spending a fortune!
 
Outstanding as ever from John Burn Murdoch at the FT.

The standout journalist of the pandemic.

No simple messages here, except that we're not out of this yet, however much we might wish it.

 
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