Coronavirus (2021) thread

[roubaixtuesday]

Ah, so you're talking total death rate, not current.

Given that our current death rate is above most of Europe, it's hard to square that with your claim that we're falling on that table, I think?

But again, what's your point here? You're claiming we've done well because we've a lower death toll than Bulgaria? Or...?

 

[Healdplace]

GM and NW Highlights

A VERY good day for Greater Manchester - apart from Stockport still not faring that well and proving Zoe right again, Even Tameside is now doing better than its neighbour.

I assume there must be high numbers in Stockport schools so not likely to be a problem beyond statistics but it is clearly not doing as well as the other boroughs now for some reason. Which given it has the best vaccination stats would seem odd but not if it is schoolchildren driving the rise as they will be unvaccinated.

North West actually RISES today by 376 but only Manchester (by 7), Stockport (by 12), Tameside (by 16) and Trafford (by 19) are up on yesterday. So GM fares well actually falling by 47 to 1011.

Almost everyone in GM apart from Stockport is down week to week - which is the most important measure

GM numbers down 253 week to week (Stockport up 16 the only outlier).

North West only falls week to week by 98 - so GM falling by more than double that from the big drops in the other boroughs is a very good performance.

Only Manchester and Stockport are above Wigan's 118 (itself down 46 wk to wk as Zoe predicted).

And 5 boroughs below 100 including the first sub 50 score in GM in some time,.

48 in Rochdale which again Zoe has seen falling over the past few days rightly it would appear.

 

[Healdplace]

Interesting question why are the numbers not shooting up now schools are back?

Is it still too early?

I would have expected Stockport to be the norm rising cases from schools that will not seriously impact anything else beyond the numbers.

But these falling numbers pretty well across England seem odd. But welcome as they are mitigating any rise even if it is still to appear. The lower you start from the better.

 

[west didsblue]

Does anyone know if the reduction in antibodies several months after vaccination translates directly into a significantly increased likelihood of serious illness if Covid is caught? Or does it mostly relate to reduced immunity from actually catching it in the first place?

 

[Healdplace]

In the regions today 3 are down on the day, 6 are up on the day

Only London (up 436) and North West (up 376) have rises day to day you might call significant


AND every single England region is significantly down week to week - indeed the NW is easily the smallest weekly fall.

Most southern regions are around one third down - by over 1000 - in the week since schools returned.

South West has fallen in past two weeks from nearly 4000 to 1359 today.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

61 all settings deaths

30, 825 cases

Up 1652 on yesterday

Down 10, 367 on last Monday

21, 077 from England

Up 1164 on yesterday

Down 6125 on last week

This is great news, it now looks increasingly likely there's a genuine fall underway. There was real concern that with numbers so high, it would take relatively little to push us into needing to reimpose some restrictions.

It hopefully gives time to get along with 12-15yo vaccinations and some boosters ahead of any winter surge.

 

[Rammy Blue]

Interesting question why are the numbers not shooting up now schools are back?

Is it still too early?

I would have expected Stockport to be the norm rising cases from schools that will not seriously impact anything else beyond the numbers.

But these falling numbers pretty well across England seem odd. But welcome as they are mitigating any rise even if it is still to appear. The lower you start from the better.

Personally, I’m not convinced that as many younger people bother going to have a PCR when they do a positive lateral flow.

 

[west didsblue]

Personally, I’m not convinced that as many younger people bother going to have a PCR when they do a positive lateral flow.

I would agree with that. I would guess that most of them don't want the "Covid Police" breathing down their necks so they probably just keep quiet and hopefully stay at home when they catch it.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Does anyone know if the reduction in antibodies several months after vaccination translates directly into a significantly increased likelihood of serious illness if Covid is caught? Or does it mostly relate to reduced immunity from actually catching it in the first place?

I don't think there are clear answers to these questions at the moment. There are so many confounding factors.

But I think it is clear that protection from symptomatic infection wanes faster and/or is more prone to new variants than protection from severe disease.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

I would agree with that. I would guess that most of them don't want the "Covid Police" breathing down their necks so they probably just keep quiet and hopefully stay at home when they catch it.

There's got to be some truth in these issues, but the ONS survey hasn't departed massively from testing data I think? Which suggests it's not a big issue?