Coronavirus (2021) thread

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BlueAnorak said:
Give over - you're flogging a dead horse here. Marginal means "only just benefiting" in terms if health. Scientists and statisticians use the word all the time.
Click to expand...

Yet when you read quantitative analysis of the benefits, it seems whole factors higher than the risk. So what, specifically, does the JCVI mean by "marginal", in quantitative terms?

They don't tell us.

Yet pretty much every other agency reaches the opposite conclusion.
 
The data so far today has been pretty encouraging.

Why do I keep expecting to see England suddenly go up today and spoil the optimism

Hopefully I will be proven way too cynical in another hour or so.

Partly as Zoe is hinting at that rise. Or stall. Though not as yet in a big way.
 
Healdplace said:
And the three nation cases with England to come are:- 6889

Last week at this stage it was 9944

So a fall of about 50% week to week.

Last week England added 27, 545 to that 9944 to create a UK total of 37, 489

Yesterday England added 21, 077 to the other nations total of 9748 to create a UK total of 30, 825
Click to expand...

50% drop in a week ?!
 
ZOE APP NEWS

TODAY'S UPDATE



STILL HINTS OF A SLOWING DOWN

Predicted cases ARE UP for second day running. Only slightly

Today FROM 46, 613 to 46, 994 TODAY - a rise of 379 after a rise of just 6 yesterday.

It WAS 52, 127 last Tuesday (up 78 on the day).


Ongoing symptomatic cases did still FALL for ninth day running.

But again by a smaller number - though broke back below 700K into the 600K region for first time since 28 August.


FROM 700, 377 to 695, 667 TODAY - A fall of 4710 today following falls of 6108, 9353, 7567, 6297 and 1720 in previous days.

IT WAS 737, 907 last Tuesday.

You would expect a lag to the change in ongoing cases after a rise or fall in daily case numbers.


NUMBERS DO TEND TO BE HIGHER IN MIDWEEK THAN AT WEEKEND PRESUMABLY DUE TO THE USE OF THE APP CHANGING SOCIALLY
 
BlueHammer85 said:
50% drop in a week ?!
Click to expand...
Much as England did a couple of weeks back.

Seems as if the children catching it might have reached optimum levels and are falling after a month of rises.

Something similar may be happening in Northerm Ireland too.

Wales - too early to tell but today's numbers were promissing.

Mixing in schools would trigger cases BUT it is worth remembering kids have been mixing all Summer as they were most likely to take advantage of the ending of restrictions. In many ways schools will possibly not now be the big impact maker it might have been if that opening up had been at the same time as schools going back.

England cases without schools opening have been coming from the same kind of age levels as the other countries even before they returned to school here.
 
ZOE APP DATA

TODAYS DATA

REGIONS:-

MOST REGIONS UP ON ZOE TODAY BUT BY ONLY SMALL NUMBERS




North West RISES FROM 729 / 952 TO 745 / 972 - STILL FIFTH of the 12 regions.


Behind Scotland (still TOP) and Wales (second) - with Scotland out of the HIGHEST WATCH ZONE

Yorkshire up to third

North East fourth UP FROM 693 / 1084 TO 698 / 1091.



East Midlands back up a watch zone.

UP TO 637 / 881.

South West (which has been plummeting day by day in the real cases all week - as the regional data each evening on here shows- is now the LOWEST region ahead of London

BUT edges UP on 476 / 630 FROM 473 / 625

SOUTH WEST HAS BY FAR FALLEN THE MOST IN THE REAL CASES TOO



West Midlands though is UP on 511 / 733, South East (DOWN to 524 / 642 FROM 544 / 643) and East (DOWN to 511/ 670 FROM 523 / 684).


Scotland TOP is DOWN again on 805 / 1077 FROM 817 / 1090


WALES in second is UP on 762 / 1083 FROM 752 / 1069


Yorkshire third is UP on 764 / 1032 FROM 731 / 992


N Ireland today is UP the most on 301 / 1044 FROM 256 / 952
 
ZOE APP DATA


TODAY


GREATER MANCHESTER:-


Bury - has fallen but still the highest in GM . UP on 22, 230 FROM 24, 646 - one of the highest in the North West.

Stockport is now in second place as real case data supports BUT a batch of boroughs are now fairly close together in this range and SK is DOWN very slightly on 13, 330 FROM 13, 360

Tameside - matching its fall in real cases - drops into third place and is DOWN a bigger chunk on 13, 149 FROM 16, 137

Oldham is up to fourth UP on 12, 992 FROM 11, 896

Salford edges DOWN and is fifth on 11, 290 FROM 12, 748

Manchester falls to sixth though is UP on 11, 185 FROM 10, 254


THERE ARE NOW FOUR BOROUGHS IN THE LOWER SUB 10K WATCH ZONE



Trafford is in seventh and still falling - DOWN on 7743 FROM 7912

Wigan in eighth is DOWN on 6706 FROM 8683

Rochdale in ninth is UP on 5825 FROM 5265


BUT BEST IN GM IS:-

Bolton DOWN again on 3989 FROM 4761

One of the lowest numbers in GM In many weeks







REST OF NORTH WEST


West Lancashire - the region between Bootle, Formby and Southport in west and Wigan is DOWN on 10, 631


Liverpool UP on 14,223 FRO 14, 007

also

Blackpool coast area and the Fylde is still a problem area of the North West.

In the sun and with the illuminations opening DOWN on 13, 574

Chorley is UP again too on 17, 765 FROM 17, 288

As in the Lake District UP on 19, 844 - one of the highest in the NW


Cheshire East - is still low but has gone UP again and into the higher watch zone and much closer to Stockport now on 11, 265 FROM 9575.

Still much better than Chester and Cheshire West - though they are down on 15, 924

Warrington on 12, 060 has also been edging up lately
 
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