Coronavirus (2021) thread

Healdplace

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Yesterday

'Certainly no sign of any real reason for concern.'
Indeed as I said it could be a one off thing. Ventilators follow this pattern quite a lot. One days numbers can change quite quickly.

But when the two measures - patients in and those on ventilators - are down in the other big regions and both rise in tandem here on one day it is worth nothing. Especially with NE & Yorkshire which was much the bigger rise today in both measures. And was the region to have the most England deaths today too.

I normally do a fuller hospital summary but am not doing today because of the match.
 

BlueHammer85

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As far as I’m aware though, the people in hospital generally aren’t as poorly as in other waves.

Still thousands of beds being taken up
mix that with forthcoming wave of massive flu
and a NHS already under pressure

it's pretty obvious measures need to be taken

but we still have people playing it down as if it is all over
 

The Light Was Yellow Sir

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What they were advocating in that letter is what most of Europe have done. Where death rates have been a lot lower than here (though this may not necessarily be a correlation). So it's hardly radical, off the wall stuff.

Why should scientists stay out of the media? The more informed people commenting the better IMO.
I don’t think scientists in general should stay out of the media at all, but I do think members of Sage should. They are not accountable whatsoever so should give their personal opinions if they want but they should not be advising the government as well.
 

Healdplace

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UK PATIENTS AS OF TODAY:



ENGLAND 6306 SCOTLAND 1079 NORTHERN IRELAND 426 WALES 505


UK TOTAL 8316

(DOWN 33 TODAY)






VENTILATED UK AS OF TODAY


ENGLAND 910 SCOTLAND 91 NORTHERN IRELAND 33 WALES 47

UK TOTAL 1081


(UP 20 TODAY
)
 

Healdplace

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GREATER MANCHESTER SCOREBOARD


TOTAL CASES 1005 - DOWN 89 FROM YESTERDAY.

NORTH WEST UP BY 103 . SO VERY GOOD DAY WHEN GM IS DOWN AND NW UP


VERSUS LAST WEEK GM WAS THEN 1537 - SO DOWN 532 .

NORTH WEST FELL BY 907 WEEK TO WEEK TO 3222.

THIS IS ABOVE EXPECTATIONS FOR GM AND AS WEEK TO WEEK IS MORE IMPORTANT A REALLY GOOD DAY FOR GREATER MANCHESTER


MANCHESTER 159 - UP 2 on day & DOWN 135 wk to wk. Huge weekly fall! Manchester Pop Score up just 29 - POP SCORE 15, 546


STOCKPORT 132 - DOWN 39 on day & 43 wk to wk. This was a better day here happily given Manchester was very low so it was still close. Pop Score up 45 today. NOT the highest in GM today as both Tameside and Trafford were higher so it regained 3 points. POP SCORE 12, 466

TRAFFORD 114 - UP 11 on day & UP 24 Wk to wk - Pop Score up by 48 points today. Gifting 3 points back to Stockport. Cutting Trafford's lead for lowest overall Pop score to 3. POP SCORE OF 12, 463.

TAMESIDE 113 - UP 8 on day & DOWN 67 wk to wk - Another very good day here. Pop Score up 50 making it highest in GM today. POP SCORE 13, 799


BOLTON 102 - UP 14 on day & DOWN 19 wk to wk - Bolton Pop Score up 36. POP SCORE 14, 784


WIGAN 98 - DOWN 38 on day & DOWN 113 wk to wk. Pop score up 30 today - POP SCORE 14, 576


SALFORD 94 - UP 13 on day & DOWN 22 wk to wk. Pop Score up 35 . POP SCORE 15, 256


OLDHAM 87 - DOWN 9 on day & DOWN 51 Wk to Wk. Pop Score up 37 and now 69 ahead of Manchester for highest overall GM pop score . POP SCORE 15, 615


BURY 56 - DOWN 9 on day & DOWN 33 wk to wk Pop score here up 30. POP SCORE 14, 429

ROCHDALE 50 - DOWN 42 on day & DOWN 73 wk to wk. Pop Score up 23 - lowest in GM today. and enters the 15 K club. POP SCORE 15, 038
 

Healdplace

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GM boroughs weekly past 7 day case totals:

Bury 511, Rochdale 560, Oldham 718, Trafford 735, Bolton, 744, Salford 750, Tameside 801 , Wigan 966, Stockport 1056, Manchester 1358


At the right end of the table Bury now well clear. Though lots of very good falls today saw most boroughs improve their numbers.

At the wrong end Wigan had a great day and fell below 1000. And Manchester had a huge fall also. So despite Stockport having a better day and falling by 43 too that fall was dwarfed by the 100 PLUS falls of Wigan and Manchester and so SK is now closer than ever to beating Manchester in the weekly cases - something Stockport would usually never do. The gap was over 1000 a week or so ago. It is now just 302.
 

Summerbuzz

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I don’t think scientists in general should stay out of the media at all, but I do think members of Sage should. They are not accountable whatsoever so should give their personal opinions if they want but they should not be advising the government as well.
I think the question is one of balance. The alternative could be said to be a situation that allowed the Govt to cherry pick what they like from Sage's polyphony of voices, then utilise briefings, the seeding of stories and other democratic means to pressure and direct Sage, turning them into their lapdog.

It seems very much in line with the tenets of our democracy that members can speak their minds.

Anyway, they are still accountable as academics.
 

Healdplace

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GM WEEKLY POP SCORES

Remember low scores good - going down good - high scores bad - going up bad


BOROUGH // POP SCORE TODAY // POP SCORE LAST WEEK // UP OR DOWN BY LAST 7 DAYS

Also WAS 4 weeks ago (up/down in past month)



MANCHESTER 245 // 324 //DOWN 79 WAS 330 (down 85)

ROCHDALE 251 // 319 // DOWN 68 WAS 262 (down 11)

BOLTON 261 // 276 // DOWN 15 WAS 233 (up 28)

BURY 268 // 312 // DOWN 44 WAS 310 (down 42)

SALFORD 285 // 372 // DOWN 87 WAS 351 (down 66)

WIGAN 293 // 366 // DOWN 73 WAS 266 (up 27)

OLDHAM 302 // 349 // DOWN 47 WAS 327 (down 25)

TRAFFORD 309 // 367 // DOWN 68 WAS 339 (down 30)

TAMESIDE 358 // 487 // DOWN 129 WAS 320 (Up 38)

STOCKPORT 359 // 394 // DOWN 35 WAS 320 (up 39)



Bolton did OK but lost out to both Manchester and Rochdale's excellent run of low scores who go above BL.

Bury, Salford and Wigan also sub 300 now too as GM heads down.

Tameside has been falling so well over recent days and despite the cruel irony that Stockport had a good day and fell for once Tameside struck.

A week or so ago it was near on 100 ahead and yet today fell to one below Stockport who achieved the highest Pop Score in GM for what I think might be the first time ever.

SK has been almost always at the other end of the table or near to there.

But the good news is three or four days ago this change of leader at the wrong end looked like occurring in the early / mid 400s where Tameside had been for ages and Stockport was heading into.

So the fact that it has occurred in the mid 350s instead is a good sign for GM as a whole.

As is the fact that EVERY borough - including Stockport - is falling week to week - something we have not seen in GM in some time and positive news.
 

Churchlawtonblue

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More good news, and without reading too much into a single day, the weekly figures for hospitalisations and deaths are showing distinct signs of turning the corner to follow cases

View attachment 26325

All of this showing how it's increasingly difficult to predict the shape of the epidemic as we've been at R~1 for many weeks now.

The combination of behavioural changes, immunity building through infection and vaccination, and likewise waning over time makes it far harder to know where we're headed.

But for sure, down is better than up going into winter. And this time last year it was obvious a disaster was approaching which Vallance and Whitty were mocked for predicting (their warning actually turned out to be far too optimistic in the end). Disastrous scenarios looking far less likely this year.
And even the most optimistic figures from sage being way way out.
 

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