Coronavirus (2021) thread

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ZOE APP DATA


TODAY

GREATER MANCHESTER STILL SHOWING SOME HINTS TODAY OF A SLOW DOWN OR FALL IN SEVERAL PLACES BUT INCHING RATHER THAN TUMBLING AND SOME HIGH NUMBERS STILL.





GREATER MANCHESTER:-



Tameside goes top and certainly cases suggest it should be in top 3 though its dodgy numbers on Zoe long term need recalling. Today UP big - on 20, 325 FROM 18, 815. Top by 4 is unheard of in this data!

Trafford stays second (given the VERY close numbers and doubts over Tameside data I would say really joint top) - no shock given its real reported bad numbers UP on 20, 321 FROM 19, 407

Oldham moves into third UP too hust behind on 20, 182 FROM 19, 014 - THREE BOROUGHS NOW ABOVE 20 K FOR FIRST TIME IN AGES IN GM AND ABOUT AS CLOSE AS YOU CAN GET BETWEEN THEM

Rochdale now fourth but as close as barely matters to 20K - DOWN a bit on 19, 886 FROM 21, 501

JUST 439 SEPARTING THE TOP 4 BOROUGHS ON THIS ZOE DATA - WHICH IS TINY - SHOWS GM IS NOW NO ONE HORSE SHOW


Stockport rises to fifth but once again DOWN a little more than recent days but still fairly slightly. On 15, 180 FROM 15, 914. Though a gap opened up above after five days of small falls here.

Wigan is just sixth after going DOWN again today and by the biggest drop on 13. 886 FROM 16, 119

Bolton sadly also still high but slightly DOWN (after having quadrupled steadily over past 2 weeks) now in seventh - on 13, 796 FROM 13, 87



SO WE ARE BACK TO THREE BOROUGHS IN THE LOWER WATCH ZONE

Manchester still in eighth falls slughtly DOWN just enough to be back into here after another one day stayover in the 10Ks - bit literally just about on 9982 FROM 10, 138

Salford stays in ninth- and as feared still going UP on 7657 FROM 6648 - the inevitable we saw coming all week as it rose from tha very flat low plateau in the 3000s for a month as GM everywhere began to do so.

It was the last to jump on the train but has now.

So....the best in GM is still.


Bury DOWN again a little on 6475 FROM 6573







REST OF NORTH WEST




St Helens is high again bit pretty flat today on 18, 808 FROM 18, 846

THEY WERE NOT ALONE EITHER:-

Liverpool is UP again in the Upper Watch zone on 11, 887 FROM 11, 095

Sefton - too now going UP on 11, 056 FROM 10, 007.

Warrington is UP again too SLOWLY on 11, 355 FROM 10, 924 after days on 10, 787, 10, 480. 10, 307 & 10, 176.


THE UPTICK IS SLOW AS YET IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE REGION - BUT IS NOW UNIVERSAL IN ALL THE OLD PROBLEM AREAS WHICH ARE STARTING TO GO UP




AND THE OTHER PROBLEM AREA TO THE NORTH NOW FALLING TOO - THOUGH VERY SLOWLY

LAKE DISTRICT NORTH DOWN AGAIN ON 23, 888 FROM 26, 077 & 28, 183 - WITH LANCASTER AND MORECAMBE STAYING FLAT AROUND 18,000.



AS FOR THE OTHER AREA OF CONCERN:-

Cheshire East is STILL unfortunately going UP and away now far above Stockport and after weeks of rising every day now worse than everywhere in GM - a trajectory it has been on for over a month now.

UP to 21, 939 FROM 21, 849 FROM 21, 179, 20, 712, 20, 163 & 19, 511 in past days - highest I have seen it and the 16 th consecutive rise - been over Stockport every day for two weeks now. As neighbours these two usually follow one another pretty closely with Stockport higher.

BUT NOTICE IT IS THE SMALLEST RISE OF LATE - INDEED IN WEEKS _ SO THERE IS HOPE HERE TOO

THE REASON IS MOSTLY IN THE SOUTH OF THE COUNTY AROUND CREWE. LOOKING TO NOW BE PERHAPS THE REAL NORTH WEST AREA OF CONCERN.

Chester and Cheshire West - like other western parts of the NW - has been falling steadily as the east and is DOWN yet again on 14, 369 FROM 14, 813, 15, 523, 16, 536 & 17, 348.

THE MOST THAT CHESHIRE EAST HAS EVER LED ITS NEIGHBOUR TO THE WEST.

OH AND WORTH WATCHING THE FYLDE AND BLACKPOOL AREA NOW THE LIGHTS ARE ON - THOUGH DOWN TODAT ON 11, 324 FROM 11, 664 & 12, 683 AND YOU MAY HAVE LSO NOTICED HOW OFTEN BLACKPOOL HOSPITAL HAS STARTED APPEARING IN THE NW DEATH NUMBERS - IT HAS A HIGH RETIREMENT AGE POPULATION.
 
My mate just tested positive,as a consequence of shool teacher wife.She is now one of 16 members of staff isolating.
 
SCOTLAND DATA

SLIGHTLY DISAPPOINTING BUT NOT DISASTROUS HERE - LEGACY OF WEEKS OF HIGH CASES STILL PLAYING OUTIN PART I FEAR

34 deaths - was 28 last week

3055 cases - was 2997 last week

6.9% positivity - was 7.6% last week - so this is a more positive number

988 patients - down 10 on yesterday - was 1020 last week

68 ventilated icu - up 3 on yesterday - was 71 last week
 
NORTHERN IRELAND DATA

First not so good day here in a while. Though not by much

2 deaths - was 2 last week

1339 cases - was 1320 last week - UP but by just 19

8.8% positivity - was 6.9% last week

7 DAY ROLLING CASES EDGING UP NOW TOO 7918 - WAS 7700 YESTERDAY & 7633 LAST WEEK

65 CARE HOME OUTBREAKS - UP 1 ON YESTERDAY - WAS 76 LAST WEEK. HOPE THIS DOES NOT TURN INTO A TREND AS THE HOSPITAL NUMBERS ARE STARTING TO HINT

362 patients - up 16 on yesterday - was 346 last week

27 ventilated - same as yesterday - wa 27 last week

ON THE ROLLING SEVEN DAY CASES BY AGE TODAY MORE 19 AND UNDER TESTED POSITIVE LAST WEEK THAN ALL ADULTS AGED 20 - 60!
 
So the total deaths with only England out of hospital to add is:- 108

By the way Scotland had more than half the number of deaths today as England did (34 to 64) which is very unusual given the big population dfference 5.5 million Scotland v 56 million England. Perhaps some older catch up numbers from end of month??


Last week the total number at this stage was 126.

It became 150 after out of hospital England was added.

That was 24 added by England outside of the 87 in hospital.

Today in hospital there were 64.
 
And the three nation cases with England to add are:- 6401

This time last week the total was 7686

England later added 29, 036 to total 36, 722


Yesterday England added 28, 846 to the total of 33, 869
 
143 all settings deaths


39, 851 cases - up nearly 6000 on yesterday

Big jump up in England cases to 33, 450.

Up 4604 on yesterday

And up 4414 on last Wednesday's 29, 036

SADLY THE HIGHEST CASE NUMBER IN ENGLAND SINCE 22 JULY
 
No way to sugar coat this. Awful day in Greater Manchester as those numbers suggest.

Trafford and Stockport highest numbers they have ever had.

Both Pop Scores way over 100.

Stockport bad enough at 345 cases - up 131 on yesteday though 'only' by 61 week to week.

With an unheard Pop Score rise of 118.

Trafford set new records galore on its own though - with incredibly 401 cases - 141 up on yesterday and 203 up week to week. Doubled week to week for second day running.

Their Pop score was 169 - the highest ever by any GM borough in one day. And I am not sure I have seen any higher.

Indeed it took it from 13, 851 in one leap into the 14K club which I never suggested was even possible in one day.

Since Stockport went up and up two weeks ago I have been asking why no media have been looking into this and warning it would spread to the rest of GM.

Looks like the so called journalists will wake up to this way too late as they have done time after time through this pandemic,

Yes - cases mean much less than they did given these are almost certainly school age driven.

But that nobody is even reporting the signs that lead to where we are now is frustrating as it was very clear in the numbers for a long while now.

Like Wigan last year that led to months of lockdown we saw it coming here but nobody did anything until it was too late and months of lockdown followed for GM.

Will not happen this time as cases mean less than they did 12 months ago but imo if you have elderly or at risk relatives living in GM and especially in Stockport and Trafford I would seriously suggest you keep your kids away from them as much as you can in coming weeks until this fizzles out as it hopefully soon will,

Obviously your family decision to make and with the vaccines their risk is far less than was but they should at least know what the regional media have singularly failed to report about this growing problem. So they can make informed decisions.

That's all I am advising. Not mass panic.
 
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Highest North West cases in 80 days on 5322 - UP 1261 today.

GM was the biggest share of both that day to day and week to week rise. Well above expectation.

Up today by 732 of that 1261 - way over the par score for the region of about 440.

GM today on 2195 cases.

It was last at that level (as in even over 2000) on 22 July.

Week to week North West is up by 1097 and GM Is up by 711 of that - at least double what it should be.

So no question that GM is the main reason these numbers are going up like they are. And it started in Stockport over 2 weeks ago and has been heading for this ever since.

IF the other boroughs rise anything like Stockport, Trafford and Tameside have much of the region will hve had Covid by Christmas.

I guess the only good news is first in, first out and better now in early October than around New Year. Especially if this does put pressure on the NHS though hopefully that will not happen to any concerning degree. Though higher cases is bound to translate into other things to some extent if this is not a one off data glitch and this pattern continues and does not fall from here.
 
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