Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Healdplace]

What seems possibly true about Wales is that just over 8000 cases for these three days would be kind of good news as the three equivalent days - SAT, SUN, MON - last week totalled (for real pre data cock up) 9598 cases.

 

[Healdplace]

ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS

Tuesday is always the big catch up day with limited registrations on Sunday. So often the biggest number of the week.

It is UP again week to week today - deaths are clearly still rising. But not rapidly. A 13% week to week rise.

Week before the rise was 25%. Week before that 5% rise.

Deaths will follow cases and hospitalisations self evidently so hope the numbers have fallen and we might see deaths decline too in a week or two.


185 deaths with 24 North West:

Last week it was 164 with 33 North West

Week before it was 132 with 17 North West

 

[Healdplace]

ENGLAND 185 HOSPITAL DEATHS IN DETAIL

By Region:

East 13, London 18, Midlands 35, NE & Yorkshire 69, North West 24. South East 10, South West 16

That 69 in NE & Yorkshire one of the biggest single days in any region since last Winter - though they reported ZERO on both the last two days so this is really just an all weekend number catching up.

Also first time in a while every region in double figures - Showing the real reason the cases grew and hospital numbers and deaths have followed. What WAS a regional outbreak in parts of the UK has turned into a national one as it spread southward. It is already showing singns it will probably wane in the same way.

By Trust:-

19 in Mid Yorkshire and 10 in Calderdale & Huddersfield.

THESE ARE THE HIGHEST SINGLE DAY TOTALS FOR SINGLE TRUSTS IN MONTHS and it is clear the very big NE & Yorkshire number today is why the week to week total even rose at all.

It is 25 more in that one region than last Tuesday and alone accounts for all of the 21 week to week rise in England.

North West is down 9 on last week.

North West Trusts:

5 in Liverpool, 4 in Morecambe, 2 each in Blackpool, Bolton, East Lancashire. Salford, Wigan AND 1 each in East Cheshire, Mid Cheshire, Pennine Acute (Oldham/Rochdale), Tameside & Warrington

 

[Healdplace]

ZOE SUMMARY TODAY

YET ANOTHER RECORD HIGH WHICH HAS HAPPENED EVERY DAY NOW FOR TWO WEEKS

PREDICTED CASES WELL UP AGAIN:-

ON 92,524 FROM 91,273 yesterday & FROM 88,784 day before that


SO UP BY 1251 AFTER rises of 2489, 1803, 2139 & 1887 the days before.

May be a hopeful slowing down. We will see.


It was 78,993 last week. UP 13,531 week to week.

Was a rise of 14,871 yesterday across the week and rises of 14,525 & 14,455 over previous days.

THIS ALSO SUPPORTS THE SUGGESTION RISES MAY BE SLOWING DOWN ON ZOE


ONGOING INFECTIONS - ALSO SETTING A NEW RECORD DAILY AS THE HIGHEST NUMBER EVER - ABOVE THOSE RECORDED IN MID JANUARY AT THE HEIGHT OF THE UKs WORST WAVE


UP TODAY ON 1,162,853 FROM 1,145,142 yesterday & 1,126,296 day before

A rise of 17,711 in the day DOWN from a rise of 18,846 yesterday



Today week to week v 1,030, 777 is a wk to wk RISE of 132,076

The weekly rise yesterday was 129,818

So sadly still slowly rising here. But will take a few days to respond to any fall. So we will see.




Ongoing case numbers will always lag daily cases as if you catch Covid you will be a Covid case for a week or two but a new case only once.

 

[Healdplace]

ZOE APP REGIONAL NUMBERS

Current TOP NUMBERS:- ANOTHER DAY OF ALL CHANGE AT THE TOP AS SEVERAL REGIONS ARE CLOSE TOGETHER AND NUMBERS EVERYWHERE RISE UPWARDS

HEADLINES:- SOUTH WEST STAYS MOST INFECTED REGION ON ZOE & NORTHERN IRELAND THE BEST


SOUTH WEST stays as the worst region now in all UK not just England. UP again on 1577 / 1874 FROM 1549 / 1857.


WALES now second and UP today ON 1484 / 1984 FROM 1456 / 1955 .

YORKSHIRE leaps to third from fifth UP a lot on 1387 / 1791 FROM 1325 / 1721

NORTH WEST drops to fourth after going DOWN just a little on 1369 / 1730 FROM 1375 / 1739

NORTH EAST drops to fifth and effectively FLAT on 1246 / 1855 FROM 1246 / 1857

WEST MIDLANDS rises to sixth and rises a lot today UP on 1290 / 1686 FROM 1209 / 1599

EAST MIDLANDS is down to seventh and DOWN most of these top regions today - on 1290 / 1684 FROM 1315/ 1715

The lowest of this England top range group are the three other southern regions - all now in the top watch zone:

East England UP today a little on 1247 / 1527 FROM 1239 / 1520

South East UP too on 1232 / 1434 FROM 1200 / 1401


AND


London - still the lowest England region and DOWN a tad on 1004 / 1250 FROM 1007 / 1255



THE MIDDLE WATCH ZONE NOW ONLY HAS BOTH REMAINING NATIONS.

NOBODY LEFT IN THE LOWER ZONE AGAIN SADLY



SCOTLAND FALLS a tad today like NW & East MIdlands do too ON 804 / 1139 FROM 812 / 1154


AND THE LOWEST IN UK STILL THOUGH WITH SCOTLAND NOW IN THE MIDDLE WATCH ZONE BUT WELL CLEAR OF THE REST AS EASILY THE BEST NUMBERS IN THE UK RIGHT NOW:-


NORTHERN IRELAND UP a bit today but still easily the lowest in UK on 425 / 1478 FROM 395 / 1430

 

[Healdplace]

ZOE NORTH WEST NUMBERS:-

In the NW they have both Liverpool down in high 12 K and St Helens UP again on 21K

BUT Warrington edges UP again very slowly on 20,289 UP just 122

NEW LEADER in the Merseyside part of the region is the Wirral who have shot up over past few days to one of the worst in the NW after successive rises AND today UP on 28,509.


The Fylde coast area is rising again - Fylde on 22K BUT Wyre happily falling a lot now on 26,650. Hald where it was ten days ago.


Though the Lake District is going UP again just under 28K and Lancaster/Morecambe UP too on 21K


Cheshire East is inching UP again on 21,662 FROM 20,936 v Cheshire West DOWN a little on 24,035 - so East still behind.

Cheshire East close to Stockport (just 411 behind) but they have also started rising over past two days.


As for GM - Headlne - Salford stayed only 1 day in the lower watch zone sadly. Stockport inches up again too as do most of GM unfortunately. BUT the fast rising Oldham clock up the highest numbers in GM in some time. Over 30K! Manchester too still increasing fast on Zoe and is not far behind them as one of the highest in the whole NW now too.

Not looking too good for GM if the real cases follow this pattern.

The GM order according to Zoe with to nearest K numbers is:-

Oldham up again today but by less than lately yet onto 30,142 - first GM numbers to top 30K in quite a while and one of the biggest in the North West now and the highest in the south of the region.Manchester also shooting up a lot now on Zoe. Up today nearly 1600 ON 26,746 - most in the city for some time and claiming second place. Rochdale - which was BEST in GM days ago - still going up too but has slowed into third now UP just under 1500 on 25,681. And Stockport stays fourth mostly because of those bigger rises ahead of it as it is now sadly going UP again slowly - by 610 today. Now on 22,073. Trafford also has started to inch UP again today rising by 559 onto 15,899. But some way behind the 20K group.Bury indeed swapped places with Trafford as it is edging up more daily and over 16K now. Tameside UP over 1000 almost 14K now. Wigan still falling very slowly DOWN on just under 13K, Bolton edges UP today by just 143 into the high 11Ks. And the GM star once again is Salford in the sense that it has the lowest numbers - however its stay in the lower watch zone lasted a day only as like most of GM was up today by 1601 onto 11, 399 - so very close to Bolton.


THESE ZOE NUMBERS ARE PRETTY GOOD MATCHES FOR WHAT WE ARE SEEING IN THE REAL CASE NUMBERS AND WEEKLY/MONTHLY POP SCORES FOR THE TEN BOROUGHS

 

[Healdplace]

SCOTLAND DATA

20 deaths - was 24 last week

2262 cases - was 2459 last week

11.5% positivity - was 12.4% last week

917 patients - up 15 on yesterday & was 869 last week

59 ventilated icu - up 2 on yesterday & was 46 last week

THE CASES AND DEATHS DOWN A TAD BUT HOSPITAL NUMBERS STILL RISING

HOPEFULLY THE DROP IN CASES IF IT CONTINUES WILL CHANGE THAT TRACK SOON

 

[Healdplace]

NORTHERN IRELAND

4 deaths - was 8 last week

1124 cases - was 1367 last week

WEEKLY CASES 8569 - WAS 8907 YESTERDAY & 8861 LAST WEEK

50 CARE HOME OUTBREAKS - WAS 50 YESTERDAY & 60 LAST WEEK

358 Patients - was 348 yesterday & 346 last week

23 ventilated - was 24 yesterday & 20 last week


SO ZOE HAVING N IRELAND AS BEST IN UK SEEMS JUSTIFIED WITH THEIR DATA AND THEY ARE FALLING

BUT HOSPITAL NUMBERS STILL UP A BIT AND WE NEED TO HOPE THE LOWER CASES CONTINUE AND FEED INTO A FALL IN THESE NUMBERS SOON

 

[Healdplace]

Not going to do a proper week to week comparison with the Welsh data so all over the place today

The 5288 triple day total will up numbers by around 2000 on last week on their own. So bear that in mind.

Deaths too up 29 will factor into the over 200 number we will have today. Wales had just 2 for the single day not three day data last week.

Scotland and N Ireland for what it is worth are 24 deaths V 32 last week

And are 3386 cases V 3826 last week

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

Well who'd have thought it? Masks work.
Shame the government didn't regularly publish the combined evidence to show the truth of the matter.
Bottom line 9% less chance of catching it (minimim) if you ware one. Much higher chance of stopping others catching it, but that particular benefit is lost in the UK where far too many don't and have always refused to ware masks...

Subscribe to read

www.ft.com

The role of face coverings in mitigating the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 virus: statement from the Respiratory Evidence Panel (2021)

www.gov.uk

Wales looks a bit odd then..