Coronavirus (2021) thread

[SWP's back]

We've known about natural immunity forever, and the data is showing that it is more effective against covid than the vaccine, including being very robust against new variants.

That’s simply not even remotely fucking true.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

So are cases going to go through the roof or drop like a stone ... ?

Nobody knows. Anyone who claims to know is a charlatan.

The competing effects of waning immunity, vaccination, infections, seasonality and behavioural change make it quite impossible to predict.

So we need to be ready for either.

 

[BlueHammer85]

Bluemoon's favourite Eamonn Holmes is self-isolating after catching COVID

 

[Manchester33]

Well who'd have thought it? Masks work.
Shame the government didn't regularly publish the combined evidence to show the truth of the matter.
Bottom line 9% less chance of catching it (minimim) if you ware one. Much higher chance of stopping others catching it, but that particular benefit is lost in the UK where far too many don't and have always refused to ware masks...

Subscribe to read

www.ft.com

The role of face coverings in mitigating the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 virus: statement from the Respiratory Evidence Panel (2021)

www.gov.uk

It's been so obvious all along. The government's refusal to push mask-wearing is really shocking.

 

[Manchester33]

So are cases going to go through the roof or drop like a stone ... ?

My gut feeling is they'll drop. I think schools are the driving force behind the spread. Half-term should hopefully bring a bit of respite on the daily case's front.

 

[Manchester33]

Bluemoon's favourite Eamonn Holmes is self-isolating after catching COVID

Hopefully, he's not too ill with it. We're all in this together regardless of our allegiances.

 

[Healdplace]

Hopefully, he's not too ill with it. We're all in this together regardless of our allegiances.

Agreed I have worked with Eamonn quite a lot over the years and he is a decent guy so just because he suopports United is not a reason to wish him ill, My best friend of 60 years is a diehard United fan and the first thing I did after Sunday was to call her up and empathise. Not laugh.

Well not over the phone anyway.

Get well Eamonn.

 

[True_Blue69]

Decent read

 

[Healdplace]

Nobody knows. Anyone who claims to know is a charlatan.

The competing effects of waning immunity, vaccination, infections, seasonality and behavioural change make it quite impossible to predict.

So we need to be ready for either.

The current drop in cases in the south of England - where it is focused - is encouraging - but much too early to say it is a real drop not one induced by one of the seemingly endless glitches caused by testing and reporting problems. It looks real. But reality can be created by mulktiple events.

The media last night referred to the drop in cases and how they were lowest for many weeks but not one I heard mentioned or possibly even knew because all they see are headline numbers that potentially as many as 10,000 Welsh cases over the the past 3 days have vanished into the digital ether and will be added on at some point - possibly today if they have figured out what went wrong by now.

That will NOT be a sudden leap up of numbers today. Only a third of the Welsh cases would normally have been added now but that nuance might not be obvious at first glance just by seeing the headline number which will appear to have leapt back well over 40 K again.

The trends are what really matter. The southern regions HAVE fallen notably in recent days. They may or may not be partly a result of data issues. IF they are real - as it is starting to look like they are - this will be a genuine drop. The northern regions are down a touch too. So there is a generic drop it is looking like.

But so many factors are inovolved you cannot be sure

The school age cases heavily driving these big numbers - 45% of them or so - may be down due to half term only. And may shoot back up again next week. Or they may have reached a natural peak by infecting almost everyone in the schools past 2 or 3 months.

That could create a natural fade. BUT - as you can catch Covid multiple times - that does not mean a similar wave would never come back. Until we see how well catching it works in terms of natural immunity for the young.

This is an ongoing battle and we all want it over tomorrow. And whilst it is unlikely now ever to be entirely over even 10 years from now - it may at some point sooner or later be over to a degree we can forget it is even there 90% of the time.

And then focus on trying NEVER to let a disease like this enter the world and take root before we act. As we had been warned enough by science this was going to happen one day and had that chance to contain here but were woefully under prepared to do so,

A global action plan to stop Covid 2 - the sequel - IS urgently required.

 

[Healdplace]

WALES DATA

FOR THREE DAYS - UM - WELL HERE IS WHAT THEY SAY!

QUOTE:- TODAY'S DATA IS FOR A 72 HOUR PERIOD. DUE TO TECHNICAL ISSUES, NOT ALL CASES IN THE 72 HOUR PERIOD HAVE BEEN FLAGGED AS 'NEW'. THE TRUE NUMBER OF NEW CASES SINCE THE PREVIOUS REPORT ON SUNDAY 24 OCT (FOR FRIDAY 22 OCT DATA) IS LIKELY TO BE JUST OVER 8000. THE CUMMULATIVE TOTAL HAS NOT BEEN AFFECTED, AND DATA WILL BE RECONCILED GOING FORWARD.


TRANSLATION (I THINK):- THE DATA WENT GAGA FOR 3 DAYS. WE SORT OF FIXED IT BUT NOT WELL ENOUGH TO KNOW EXACTLY HOW MANY CASES HAPPENED. SO WE ARE POSTING WHAT WE KNOW FOR SURE NOW AND WHEN WE FIND WHAT WE THINK ARE ABOUT ANOTHER 3000 CASES WE WILL ADD THEM TO SOMEWHERE. SOMETIME.

SIGNED SNAFU.


31 Deaths (no idea how many are still missing if any) ~

5288 cases - as noted a bit over 3000 more missing sonewhere. No idea what days any of these apply to.

Positivity around 14% kind of.

No comparisons as - well I think you can see why that would be meaningless.