Coronavirus (2021) thread

Status
Not open for further replies.
South Africa omicron wave continues to look concerning.



Still far too early to say anything about impact here beyond that it has the potential to be very significant, I think.

For anyone unvaxxed, today should be the day. If you're eligible for a booster, go get it. As soon as you can.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
South Africa omicron wave continues to look concerning.



Still far too early to say anything about impact here beyond that it has the potential to be very significant, I think.

For anyone unvaxxed, today should be the day. If you're eligible for a booster, go get it. As soon as you can.
Click to expand...

From that, Omnicron looks more infectious but less virulent. The end result being roughly the same number of hospitalisations.
Here's hoping anyway.
 
BlueAnorak said:
From that, Omnicron looks more infectious but less virulent. The end result being roughly the same number of hospitalisations.
Here's hoping anyway.
Click to expand...

Perhaps. I think it's very hard to quantify those kinds of things at the moment. Things like age profile, vaccination profile by age, and many other factors that might be important.

We do see continuing rapid exponential rise in cases and hospitalisation in a population where delta was under control. The longer that continues for, the less likely hopes that this will be a blip pan out. But that's happened before - the beta variant never did much globally.
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
True but the experts also told us that cases would surge again in October with Delta with between 2000 to 5000 hospital admissions a day in their best case scenario and they didnt. They do get their predictions massively wrong with covid on a regular basis.
Click to expand...
The hospitals are going to be full throughout winter. They would be full for most of the winter period anyway but Covid has increased demand and earlier than usual.

I can’t remember much about what SAGE predicted and the caveats them mentioned.’I think they said we could have 250k deaths and we’ve had 150k or so. I think they also said we would get up to 100k cases a day and we got to 40-50k and probably may more undiagnosed.

We won’t have a full understanding of the impact on health services for now and possibly ever. I read PTSD is a serious problem amongst health and social care staff but this isn’t recognised in SAGE projections, I guess. Headline figures only tell a fraction of the reality.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
South Africa omicron wave continues to look concerning.



Still far too early to say anything about impact here beyond that it has the potential to be very significant, I think.

For anyone unvaxxed, today should be the day. If you're eligible for a booster, go get it. As soon as you can.
Click to expand...

Agree it has the potential to be very significant in the UK, and people should get vaxxed asap. But do you also agree it has the potential to not be significant based on the state of immunity and the much higher vaccination rate in the UK compared to SA?
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
Agree it has the potential to be very significant in the UK, and people should get vaxxed asap. But do you also agree it has the potential to not be significant based on the state of immunity and the much higher vaccination rate in the UK compared to SA?
Click to expand...
24% completed vaccination in SA!
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Perhaps. I think it's very hard to quantify those kinds of things at the moment. Things like age profile, vaccination profile by age, and many other factors that might be important.

We do see continuing rapid exponential rise in cases and hospitalisation in a population where delta was under control. The longer that continues for, the less likely hopes that this will be a blip pan out. But that's happened before - the beta variant never did much globally.
Click to expand...
Of course, I'm only extrapolating the graphs as they currently are.
The biggest caveat being it is currently high summer in South Africa so infections will naturally be lower.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Unread Posts

Don't have an account? Register now and see fewer ads!

SIGN UP
Back
Top
✖
  AdBlock Detected
Bluemoon relies on advertising to pay our hosting fees. Please support the site by disabling your ad blocking software to help keep the forum sustainable. Thanks.