Coronavirus (2021) thread

[roubaixtuesday]

Agree it has the potential to be very significant in the UK, and people should get vaxxed asap. But do you also agree it has the potential to not be significant based on the state of immunity and the much higher vaccination rate in the UK compared to SA?

Yup. As far as I can tell, the data we have doesn't at all allow a confident prediction of the impact on UK population.

There's everything out there from total doom-mongers to outright denial.

The confluence of
- biological rationale for some immune escape (number and nature of mutations)
- rapid rise in SA
- genetic evolution of the variant suggesting very recent (Sept/Oct) first emergence

All point towards a potentially significant impact. But as you rightly point out, that remains to be tested in a highly vaccinated population.

The first data on UK prevalence is just starting to emerge. How that grows over the next couple of weeks should clarify a lot how serious or not this will be, I think?

 

[domalino]

Yep. They changed the vaccine to allow for better storage.

for reference

Storage requirements for each COVID-19 Vaccine

Specific requirements must be adhered to for each vaccine as per the MHRA information for health care professionals. We've summarised key requirements.

www.sps.nhs.uk

Did they actually change it?

I recall that when everyone was focusing on the very low refrigeration temp needed, someone knowledgeable on here said they default to that super low storage temp and it would probably get approved for storage at fridge temperatures after testing.

 

[west didsblue]

Did they actually change it?

I recall that when everyone was focusing on the very low refrigeration temp needed, someone knowledgeable on here said they default to that super low storage temp and it would probably get approved for storage at fridge temperatures after testing.

I'm fairly sure that at the start of the vaccination programme that the Pfizer vaccine couldn't be stored for a month in the fridge after defrosting in line with the latest instructions. I had a Pfizer booster a couple of weeks ago at a local chemist but at the start of the vaccination campaign it was only given out at the main hospitals where they had the ultra low temperature storage facilities.

 

[Johnny Mars Bar]

That’s not right. You can store Pfizer for 31 days at between 2-8 degrees, so you can get it anywhere that does vaccinations. GP and pharmacists will keep it in fridge and they rarely have more than a weeks stock and get up to 2 deliveries a week. Some hospitals and Mass Vaccination Centres can store it frozen, for up to 9 months, but that doesn’t happen either, for obvious reasons.

I had my first Pfizer jab in May at a small local community theatre in Stockport...so if they can do Pfizer, anywhere can surely. Had my second at a chemists in Partington.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Really interesting thread on omicron, concluding that immune escape rather than inherent transmissibility is probably more likely to explain the SA spread, but both are possible (and some of each).



Note that immune escape isn't a binary thing - it would mean prior immunity from infection or vaccination somewhat less effective, not ineffective. And therefore makes getting vaxxed or boosted even more important.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Clarifying that it is indeed, the readout of more stability studies rather than a change in the vaccine makeup that enabled easier storage of the Pfizer vaccine: press release from Pfizer earlier this year

Pfizer and BioNTech Submit COVID-19 Vaccine Stability Data at Standard Freezer Temperature to the U.S. FDA | Pfizer

NEW YORK and MAINZ, GERMANY, February 19, 2021 — Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) and BioNTech SE (Nasdaq: BNTX) today announced the submission of new data to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) demonstrating the stability of their COVID-19 vaccine when stored at -25°C to -15°C (-13°F to 5°F)...

www.pfizer.com

 

[roubaixtuesday]

I'd be more interested in the prospect of serious illness.

Nobody knows. Speculation in both directions abounds. Assume unchanged until there's firm data would be my view FWIW.

 

[Marvin]

Nobody knows. Speculation in both directions abounds. Assume unchanged until there's firm data would be my view FWIW.

But that's what's important. There's real world data but there's also science based on genome and an understanding of the immune mechanism. One informs the other.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

But that's what's important. There's real world data but there's also science based on genome and an understanding of the immune mechanism. One informs the other.

Whether it's important or not, we still don't know.

Also, I wouldn't agree that it is necessarily more important. The same degree of change in transmissibility has potentially much more impact than in severity of disease, because the peak of a wave can change in orders of magnitude. COVID is a big problem not because of its severity (IFR ~1%) but rather its doubling time (~just 3 days for the ancestral strain).

 

[bluethrunthru]

Is her name Monica Lewinsky

She was the same

No its Helen ( no surname for you )