Coronavirus (2021) thread

[The Northern Baptist]

Reading through this thread I am starting to think ppl don’t know what modelling actually involves and means.

Let’s say I own a large factory and want to work out what the heating bill will be over the winter so I can plan financially. I ask someone to work out for me what the bill will be. They will provide me with various figures and each will depend on how low the ambient temperature is. The highest bill might be based on it being -10 for a month and that happens once every 50 years. It’s down to me to decide what the chances of that happening are.

That’s all SAGE modelling is, outputs based on different assumptions i.e if the R is 7 and it puts 2% of infections in hospital we’ll have X amount of daily infections and Y daily hospitalisations.

It’s down to Boris and his gang to work out what to do with those figures.

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

Nail on head

what mess are we in. Hospitalisations are rising but not even at the rate they were two months ago. More people are vaccinated than ever before.

The main issue appears to be so many people off self isolating. And a rise in unvaccinated people being admitted to hospital. Which lets be honest is entirely down to their own stupidity

 

[blueinsa]

You’re doing that sarcasm thing aren’t you.

Badly.

I just get frustrated, we all do with this wretched fucking virus and it’s impacts on all our lives.

Get your vaccines, get your boosters, continue to do so when offered and let’s get on with fucking life and living because we have to do just that. It isn’t going away anytime soon and folk have had a belly full of the doomsday predictions and restrictions/lockdowns.

 

[RobMCFC]

is it 2-3 weeks? or is it 1-2 weeks?

Don’t know, but given the case numbers we have been seeing the past few days, and will be seeing the next week, then adding in the effects of indoor mixing next weekend, I’d guess that in 3 weeks, we’ll start to see the effect on hospitalisation levels.

I don’t know what will happen. Like everybody else, I’m guessing, but it makes sense to me to listen to what the experts are saying.

It’ll be a shame if restrictions are forced on us, but it seems that many people are not prepared to make the little changes that make a big difference.

Case in point: my eldest daughter’s uni class, only her and one more girl are wearing masks - this in lecture theatres that have no windows. This despite the uni having signs stating that it is mandatory to wear masks. These are supposed to be educated people and, not to put too fine a point on it, it infuriates me.

But, we all make our choices based on our understanding of the situation.

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

Reading through this thread I am starting to think ppl don’t know what modelling actually involves and means.

Let’s say I own a large factory and want to work out what the heating bill will be over the winter so I can plan financially. I ask someone to work out for me what the bill will be. They will provide me with various figures and each will depend on how low the ambient temperature is. The highest bill might be based on it being -10 for a month and that happens once every 50 years. It’s down to me to decide what the chances of that happening are.

That’s all SAGE modelling is, outputs based on different assumptions i.e if the R is 7 and it puts 2% of infections in hospital we’ll have X amount of daily infections and Y daily hospitalisations.

It’s down to Boris and his gang to work out what to do with those figures.

trouble is sage models are quite often wrong as they were in Sept.

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

Crackers, isn’t it? Zero restrictions since July.

Daily cases hit record numbers.

“These restrictions aren’t working.”

What restrictions?

There are plenty of countries (Wales, Scotland, France for example) that have all had restrictions since July and they’re in exactly the same boat. IF restrictions make any difference, it is only a temporary measure as you can‘t run away from this virus. There is no cure, it effectively has to infect everyone it can before it will turn into a relatively minor irritation, like the flu.

 

[kippaxwarrior]

And open through the night? https://www.manchestereveningnews.c...news/all-night-booster-etihad-clinic-22490127

Might suit a number of people. Appointment only it seems. Some advantages to that.

It is. Even though it was packed I was in and out within 15 minutes as I booked.

Didn't even have to wait the 25 minutes after the jab

 

[SWP's back]

Reading through this thread I am starting to think ppl don’t know what modelling actually involves and means.

Let’s say I own a large factory and want to work out what the heating bill will be over the winter so I can plan financially. I ask someone to work out for me what the bill will be. They will provide me with various figures and each will depend on how low the ambient temperature is. The highest bill might be based on it being -10 for a month and that happens once every 50 years. It’s down to me to decide what the chances of that happening are.

That’s all SAGE modelling is, outputs based on different assumptions i.e if the R is 7 and it puts 2% of infections in hospital we’ll have X amount of daily infections and Y daily hospitalisations.

It’s down to Boris and his gang to work out what to do with those figures.

But SAGE never manages to cover the spread. Their best case scenario always ends up being far worse then what happens real world.

 

[The Northern Baptist]

trouble is sage models are quite often wrong as they were in Sept.

In what way were they wrong?

 

[mosssideblue]

It is. Even though it was packed I was in and out within 15 minutes as I booked.

Didn't even have to wait the 25 minutes after the jab

Don't come on here crying when your balls fall off and no medical staff around ;)