Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Churchlawtonblue]

The bottom grey line is tracking the red one at a slightly elevated figure.

they were miles off, 1000 to 6000 admissions a day off to be precise. And that was their best case. Their worse case was armageddon. But even that got a mention! It was laughable.

 

[The Northern Baptist]

Slightly elevated is double!

The shaded part around the line is the margin of error though, no?

edit. Just checked and it is the interquartile range.

 

[Toney’s bookie]

2 week firebreak now likely to come in on 27th or 28th report The Times. No indoor mixing, pubs move to outdoor service only and it’s the rule of 6 outdoors. Can’t see compliance being very high this time round.

House parties it is then

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

The shaded part around the line is the margin of error though, no?

Whitty stood up and predicted 2000 to 7000 admissions a day without further restrictions in his briefing. That was what they told the gov, the press, jounalists and Joe public. Hanging on to the very bottom of the shaded graph as somehow proof that the modelling was correct is a bit silly imo.

 

[waspish]

I heard an advert on the radio this morning to push people for the booster and in my non-expert medical or advertising opinion, I think they are giving the wrong message.

They were saying 2 jabs isn't enough to protect against omicron.
They should be saying the effect of the two jabs is beginning to ware off and you need to top up.

Agree or just say every jab you have the effect of it the % of it after 4/6 months goes down so everyone one needs to get the jab every 4/6 months.

 

[The Northern Baptist]

Whitty stood up and predicted 2000 to 7000 admissions a day without further restrictions in his briefing. That was what they told the gov, the press, jounalists and Joe public. Hanging on to the very bottom of the shaded graph as somehow proof that the modelling was correct is a bit silly imo.

Not really, but can’t blame ppl for swallowing the headline grabbing ‘predictions’ whole. As you say, they talk about the absolute WCS in these press conferences to grab attention.

 

[BlueAnorak]

I think we can forget about modelling, what's happening in South Africa and so on as Omicron is clearly ripping through parts of the UK so we'll know soon enough how this translates into hospitalisations and deaths (the two things that really matter). By the end of next week it will be clear if it is more transmissible but far less deadly than Delta or not.

I imagine we can all agree that this is the preferable outcome.

Indeed.

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

Not really, but can’t blame ppl for swallowing the headline grabbing ‘predictions’ whole. As you say, they talk about the absolute WCS in these press conferences to grab attention.

I agree, but the problem was that wasnt their WCS. It was their best and most likely outcome.

 

[BlueAnorak]

SAGE advising more restrictions similar to phase one or two apparently, when indoor mixing was banned/limited.

Good luck with that one.

Without backup of real prediction data based on current deaths v hospitalisations v real infections v real cases there isn't a chance of the public accepting it.
Over 50% now refuse to accept Furgusson's wolf crying.

 

[The Northern Baptist]

I agree, but the problem was that wasnt their WCS. It was their best and most likely outcome.

2-7k you said was in the press conference? 7k is the WCS. You need to look at the granular detail of the models and the spread to get a full understanding of the figures quoted.