Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Healdplace]

So pretty much what we thought. It IS milder. The boosters DO have a good if slightly smaller ability to stop serious illness from it. But it is so much more infectious - to a near phenomenal degree - that this counterbalances the good news and will still mean that many many people (including NHS staff) could be off work isolating - and even a smaller perentage of a far bigger number catching it going into hospital could stil be enough to cause problems because of the staffing issues and the season where many other things put people in hospital.

Hence why this is a very difficult decsion to make about what to do to try to slow it down given how hard that is and nigh impossible until after Christmas as so many will be reluctant.

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

So pretty much what we thought. It IS milder. The boosters DO have a good if slightly smaller ability to stop serious illness from it. But it s so much more infectious - to a near phenomenal degree - that this counterbalamces the good news and will still mean that many many people (including NHS staff) could be off work isolating - and even a smaller perentage of a far bigger number catching it gimg into hosptal could stil be enough to cause problems because of the staffing issues and the season where many other things put people in hospital.

Hence why this is a very difficult decsion to make about what to do to try to slow it down given how hard that is and nigh impossible until after Christmas.

A lot depends on high quickly it falls. If the SA data is correct, this will fall off a cliff in the first or second week of January, unless we prolong it in order to ‘slow it down’.

 

[Del_Bosque]

So Edinburgh and Imperial saying it’s milder then

crazy to think we’d have been back at stage 2 or even in a circuit breaker if Johnsons position within his party was stronger.

 

[BlueHammer85]

So Edinburgh and Imperial saying it’s milder then

crazy to think we’d have been back at stage 2 or even in a circuit breaker if Johnsons position within his party was stronger.

just because it’s milder doesn’t mean the NHS is under severe pressure at the moment

 

[True_Blue69]

So pretty much what we thought. It IS milder. The boosters DO have a good if slightly smaller ability to stop serious illness from it. But it is so much more infectious - to a near phenomenal degree - that this counterbalances the good news and will still mean that many many people (including NHS staff) could be off work isolating - and even a smaller perentage of a far bigger number catching it going into hospital could stil be enough to cause problems because of the staffing issues and the season where many other things put people in hospital.

Hence why this is a very difficult decsion to make about what to do to try to slow it down given how hard that is and nigh impossible until after Christmas as so many will be reluctant.

Cancel isolation rules and all catch it.

 

[Healdplace]

A lot depends on high quickly it falls. If the SA data is correct, this will fall off a cliff in the first or second week of January, unless we prolong it in order to ‘slow it down’.

Yes, hopefully that will be true. Guess we will have to see but there is going to be a point where so many have had it then it will reach some natural tipping point quite fast.

And it is hard to see what variant could turn up which would outdo this one as making people sicker is not an advantage to any virus ahead of being more infective which is pretty much its perfect outcome.

 

[zandvoort blue]

So pretty much what we thought. It IS milder. The boosters DO have a good if slightly smaller ability to stop serious illness from it. But it is so much more infectious - to a near phenomenal degree - that this counterbalances the good news and will still mean that many many people (including NHS staff) could be off work isolating - and even a smaller perentage of a far bigger number catching it going into hospital could stil be enough to cause problems because of the staffing issues and the season where many other things put people in hospital.

Hence why this is a very difficult decision to make about what to do to try to slow it down given how hard that is and nigh impossible until after Christmas as so many will be reluctant.

The wife who is a NHS employee is currently isolating due to close contact with a family member who has tested positive. It`s NHS policy that she can not attend work until she gets a PCR test result. She`s now been waiting for 3 days for her test result and has been told not to chase it up until it passes 96 hours. She could be negative, but can`t go to work until she gets her results. The NHS is going to take a pasting, not just due Covid but due to staff shortages because of isolation.
PCR testing needs sorting out, especially in Gtr Manchester. And NHS staff should be prioritised.

 

[Del_Bosque]

just because it’s milder doesn’t mean the NHS is under severe pressure at the moment

2 studies shown it substantially milder and we’ve had a full vaccine roll out and everyone vunerable boosted.

It coped with the last waves it will cope with this one.

 

[BlueAnorak]

How do you calculate that?

Roubiax posted a link to the least squares method a few days ago on projecting casess into the future and how to calculate it. Hospitalisations will do the same X+Y days later where X is the time from infection to symptoms and Y is the time from symptoms to hospitalisation. It would appear X has reduced from a median of 4.25 days (2.5-5 IQR) to 2.5 days for Omicron but. I can't find any data on Y the median for which was 7 days (3-10.4 IQR). The shorter this time is the better and a high viral load with rapid initial upper respitory tract replication with omicron should mean it is shorter.
Going back 7 days takes you to around 3000 hospitilisations a day a week after the 30% wave starts to decline but cases aren't doubling at the rate they were and the 20 million delta cases since July give improved. Immunity on the back of double vaccination. Fag packet maths say hospitalisations need to be around 2500 a day then to not cause a major problem. If you assume a high number of hospitalisations that subsequently test +ve positive for Covid we are probably are OK now but we don't have this data, only anecdotal evidence. Also the ongoing effect of Delta muddies the picture.
The NHS and ONS stats people have more accurate data so they will be able to confirm the actual projections by Boxing day if not sooner.
Note: IQR = Inter Quartile Range where 50% of data points sit..

 

[Scottyboi]

Herd immunity? Lmao