Coronavirus (2021) thread

[mackenzie]

Antibodies are not lasting longer than five months , we need the vaccine

My cousin contracted Covid last March/April and has recently had an antibodies test. The result showed a "strong trace" of antibodies, although I appreciate it could differ with each individual. He will still have the vaccine too, as it's best to be careful.

 

[domalino]

Some thoughts on how fast cases are falling.

Firstly, it's brilliant that they are falling at all with the new variant.

Secondly, over the past week, taking 7 day average figures, cases have fallen about 20%, to about 50,000

At the point where restrictions were reduced to their least, last summer, cases were at just 400.

If cases continue to drop at the current rate, 20% per week, it will take roughly 21 weeks to reach 400. That's to mid June.

That takes no account of vaccination. If vaccinating just reduces cases, but has no effect on transmission, then the number of cases is reduced proportionately. Let's say half the population is vaccinated by May, that reduces the time to 400 cases by just 3 weeks to 18 weeks. End May.

If vaccinating reduces transmission significantly, then the *rate* of fall will accelerate. Let's say we average 30% fall per week rather than 20%, which is likely a best case scenario, roughly equivalent to vaccinating competely stopping transmission. That'll get us to 400 cases by 12 weeks, mid April.

Thought it might give some perspective on how well things are going.

Very preliminary figures, only a short period of lock down to judge effect, huge uncertainty on vaccination impact, but thought might give some perspective.

Stay home, try to stay strong, be kind.

The big drop is what we expected though, isn't it? We've been a few weeks behind Europe all pandemic long and France and Italy both had incredibly rapid drop offs when they had their pre-Christmas lockdowns that we refused to do.

 

[Healdplace]

The England hospital data is sadly not good news for the North West.

Positive signs everywhere BUT here and the only region where both patients and ventilators are up quite a bit where in the southern regions there are promising signs that both of these are heading down.

If this is because patients are being sent to the NW from other regions would that show?

If not the trend is worrying as NW today has record patients in and record ventilator patients across the entire pandemic and the only region about whom that is true today

 

[Healdplace]

Good news then.

Hopefully yes.

 

[blueparrot]

Antibodies are not lasting longer than five months

Not true, they have only tested up to 5 months so far.Besides t cell immunity they know lasts longer.

 

[worsleyweb]

Antibodies are not lasting longer than five months , we need the vaccine

think I have seen they are lasting longer than that and could last years??

 

[hilts]

think I have seen they are lasting longer than that and could last years??

The study mentioned last week was a large group of Covid infected people monitored from 5 months ago. Up till now only a very small number have got it again. So they know that immunity lasts for the vast majority at least 5 months. Hopefully next month it will 6 then 7 etc.

Let's keep our fingers crossed. Anyone who has had it hopefully gets the proper facts. Bad info is not good tbh.

Oh and they all still had the antibodies so no antibodies aren't only lasting 5 months.

 

[Healdplace]

England Hospital Data last 224 hours:

Total Patients up 429 to 33, 352. Ventilated up by 8 to 3533 - smallest rise in weeks.

Regions:

East

patients up 56 to 4177, Ventilated down 1 to 371.


London

patients up 136 to 7707 but still below last week. Ventilated down 3 to 1203. First fall in weeks.


Midlands

patients up 122 to 6077. Ventilated down 4 to 595. Patients up to first time over 6000 here and still behind the NW the other main area of concern but the fall in ventilators is hopeful.


NE & Yorkshire

patients up 37 to 3604. Ventilated up 2 to 282. But down on the week.


North West

patients up 130 to 4151.Ventilated up 20 to 383. Both record highs.



South East

patients down 32 to 5387. Ventilated down 6 to 506.



South West

patients down 20 to 2249. Ventilated stays at 193. First fall in patients in some time here.

 

[Healdplace]

Watch areas:

Swansea

Cases 40 - down from 42. Total 15, 561. Lowest number since I have been tracking here for you. ~

Pop score up 16 to 6300. When you bear in mind soon after I started tracking it went up 94 in one day I think you can say Swansea is over the hump.

Weekly Pop score down 4 to 225.

This is much better than anywhere in Greater Manchester. And well under the Welsh national weekly Pop score today of 322.

Not remotely a problem I would say.

 

[ayrshire_blue]

Not true, they have only tested up to 5 months so far.Besides t cell immunity they know lasts longer.

I've seen recent ones with good signs up to 8 months (and counting). Of course, unfortunately this won't be the same for everyone but it seems a positive outlook for the majority but nothing conclusive as yet.

You're right she's talking bollocks

Maybe not bollocks but perhaps not the full picture either. I'm sure she's right for some cases and her point about needing the vaccine is also right, but I don't think the outlook is quite as bad as the post seems to suggest.