I don't think you can extrapolate anything from country totals in Israel or Russia to the the UK.
Russia has hardly vaccinated anyone, <1% of the population according to ourworldindata; even if you believe the unpublished efficacy of their vaccine, it's far too soon to see any impact on cases or deaths from the vaccine, will be months away at least.
Israel has gone into a hard lockdown for the last ten days (it's currently one of the few countries in the world to have a worse caseload than us) so any reduction from vaccination is impossible to disentangle from that, except perhaps by age breakdown.
Agreed. Though those early signs are promising they are not yet probative.
We are keeping a close eye on the age distribution of the deaths reported daily with the England hospital deaths.
As far too often true the data the goverrnment release is not fit for purpose. As with no test numbers so no positivity numbers over the weekend a bit like saying we will tell you how many people died yesterday but you will have to wait until next week to see how many had Covid. On a Covid data base.
Also here with 20 year age bands on the deaths when there is a HUGE difference between them even in 5 year bands from 50 upward. And especially from 60 upward. So we are hamfisted by only knowing how many died in the 30 - 59, 60 - 79 and over 80 age bands each day.
The England hospital deaths are by far the biggest UK number every day so we can judge even small changes over a period with the right data. But these bands are extremely limited to do that so I hope they are actually monitoring it more narrowly. Though if they are why not publish it. They KNOW the age of every person who died. As they tell the media specific ages of those who died and with underlying conditions. So it is another example of data control not data release which makes me very unwilling to believe half of what we are told.
Anyway we work with what little we have (there are old figures on a narrower age band but these are weeks behind so not much help).
IF there is a marked change in the protection of the most impacted - the over 80s - that will likely first show in that percentage falling and the 60 - 79s and to a lesser degree the 40 to 59s forming a larger proportion of daily deaths.
Right now they are still much as they always have been - 55% over 80. 35% 60 -79 and 9% or so 30 - 59
But if the lower ages start rising and the over 80s start falling over a period - not just a one off day - then THAT will be significant.
No sign as yet but it is early to expect that given the numbers and the time lag involved. If we are still saying the same thing in 4 weeks time I might be concerned.