Coronavirus (2021) thread

[blue b4 the moon]

Unfortunately a very bad England hospital death number today.

993 - way up on last weeks 807.

A big step back after yesterday's hopeful number

North West though only 94. Which is surprisingly low.

London with I think the highest yet from one region - 233

It isn't good but as we know death numbers aren't going to drop until a good 7-10 days after hospital admission's start to fall.

 

[BlueAnorak]

I don't think this is correct.

Israeli reported efficacy is zero up to 12 days, 33% from 14-18 days, and no data beyond that.

But many caveats, and nothing to worry about IMO.

See here

Coronavirus (2021) thread

Not unreasonable to suggest that Scotland will be back in triple figures soon for number of daily infections. Sounds incredible that I'm saying this given it would still represent a really high number and needs to keep driving down but its a far cry than the 2700 or so from a few weeks ago.

forums.bluemoon-mcfc.co.uk

Big difference between a reduction in positivity and efficaciousnes. Time and how ill people get are not included in the so far available data either.
Anyway Valance said he would be reporting back on this when the data is clearer.

 

[marco]

Unfortunately a very bad England hospital death number today.

993 - way up on last weeks 807.

A big step back after yesterday's hopeful number

North West though only 94. Which is surprisingly low.

London with I think the highest yet from one region - 233

i do think were going to have a big drop soon, hopefull those numbers above can be cut by 50% this time next week, the xmas mixing deaths must now be over the peak and reducing,,fingers crossed

 

[ayrshire_blue]

 

[BlueAnorak]

R rate finally below one.
Nearly 3 weeks after lockdiwn, the UK R rate falls to between 0.8 and 1 for first time since early December

upday.com

f7td5.app.goo.gl

 

[1.618034]

Update from Chez 618...

Both feeling miles better today. Both got our first good night's sleep in last night which helps enormously. No headache or fever or cough, just got a wife with no voice. Every cloud... ;-)

 

[somapop]

I don't know what it is, but I kinda put it down to anxiety (never something I've had before), it's not painful or anything but certainly something I'm aware of every now and then. Hope it stops soon whatever it is. It's this sort of thing that makes it feel different to explain than a regular cold or flu. Went a 3 or 4 mile all round walk yesterday and thankfully felt good for it, building up slowly. Hopefully the smell thing goes away for you as quick as it came on.

That sounds incredibly positive.
I’m someone who walks the dig for two hours most evenings (and runs if possible too).
As soon as I can I’ll be treading the tarmac again for some light dog walking.
Merely typing that is lifting me.
Great news mate.

@tolmie's hairdoo - how are things with you mate?

 

[Healdplace]

It isn't good but as we know death numbers aren't going to drop until a good 7-10 days after hospital admission's start to fall.

They fell week to week yesterday giving a bit of hope.

This is the biggest week to week rise in a while and some truly horrific daily numbers over the past few days that are records across the entire pandemic.

Highest 1 st day total - 134 died actually on 21 Jan - yesterday. Last Friday the day one number was 108. Week before 90. Week before 42. This is not a number stabilising.

On Day 2 - 20 Jan - a gigantic 410 was added to total 512 known deaths in just 48 hours. Going back 7 days on these the numbers added (and 2 day totals) are 410 (512)- 361 (459) - 304 (392) - 183 (237)

It is much the same for the other days. Nothing but going up and up.

Jan 19 (just 72 hours ago) is on 722 after just 3 days - week before it was 632 - week before 493 - week before 341

There really is no upside to this. Catastrophic numbers.

 

[twosips]

This is based on Israel.

 

[Healdplace]

The only upside there really is comes from the NW which fell in total to just 9% of England despite there being 200 extra England deaths on yesterday. Only the South West had fewer today - a much smaller region than NW and running at a record high for them in fact.

NW given its densely populated areas and the highest total cases across the pandemic until very recently when London overtook it with such high numbers in past month is dramatically lower on the death levels than the other regions.

NW is approaching half a million cases in coming days (at 489, 280). London has rocketed past and overtook NW around Christmas and was at the NW current number early January and is now at 605, 139 cases.

No other region is anywhere near the case numbers the NW has now.

So the low deaths here are very welcome but very surprising.

Unless they are still to come as there are at 402 over 50 more on ventilators than there were during the peak of the first wave in the region in April.

I have been saying this for some weeks now though and as yet there is no clear indication that NW deaths are anything but surprisingly stable at a very welcome but puzzling level.

Perhaps the vaccine has some part in this? We have pro rata vaccinated more of the vulnerable than London in the past month iirc.