Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Healdplace]

Nicola Sturgeon reports that approx 95% of care home residents and 77% of staff at care homes, 90% of the front line NHS staff and 34% of the over 80s have had at least the first vaccine dose.

Seems very good progress.

The England figures would be rather interesting. Anyone know them?

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Thanks. That doesn't sound too good re hopes about a sterilising effect in people i.e. reductions in tranmission. Perhaps that will come with the 2nd dose.

No idea, sorry. In addition to all the caveats above, if infections are milder, then viral load and transmission could be lower too?

 

[Mike Cledford]

Thank you for remembering that brava reference - but be as blunt as you like. Been around the block enough for it not to phase me out.

However, I am not 'involved' as such - only self informed because I have the time to do it and the inclination as I trust looking things up myself at source rather than what we get told in stage managed press conferences by politicians who present their own version of day to day reality - regardless of party of origin.

On and off I have been involved with the media and employed by both ITV and BBC (and Sky too) but it was on my terms not as their employee. This has given me some insight into how stories are told and how only occasionally are the facts more important than the presentation.

The editor of the News of the World taught me that long ago.

Very interesting. I am curious but won't pry.
Your labour of love is much appreciated.
Brava!!

 

[artfuldodger]

I do not understand this story about the 400 strong wedding party.

They all ran away and so they fine the organiser. Okay

But the guests all chose to break the rules. The organisers know who they all were as they invited them.

They should put the organisers in a police holding cell and let them stay there until they release the names of those present so they all can be fined - not just the handful not quick enough to run away as hundreds did when police arrived.

We need to send a message that this is not something that will be tolerated. You break the rules. You pay.

I struggle to understand where anyone finds 400 people willing to attend a wedding. This isn’t an impromptu student party. It’s a wedding held in a school, so obviously grown ups involved and planning taken place. I couldnt persuade 4 people never mind 400 to take part in something like this.

 

[mosssideblue]

I am not the one making the law but if it was up to me I would send the bailiffs in to repossess property to the value of the fine. I would also try to ensure that they and their family don't receive the vaccine as they obviously don't give a shit.

In addition, I would show all their pictures on TV. Name and shame the bastards. Scourge of society

 

[Healdplace]

Worth noting from that ONS data that the % people infected who are over 70 is really low so the vaccine is not going to have much effect yet on the rate of new infections. We can expect it to reduce transmission.

A second point which doesn't matter now but will matter in time:

When the over 80s and over 70s they go back home. What do you do when the over 50s get vaccinated? That wont be too far away. This group is going to want to get on with their life, and telling them no will be a lot harder than it is for over 80s

I noted that the other day about the impact of the vaccine on the case numbers.

That is why we have been tracking in here the numbers of deaths in the older age groups in the England hospiutal numbers each afternoon. As this is the largest single number each day.

They do not help by only giving us 60 - 79 and over 80 bands which as I noted is a terrible band to use here as there is a BIG difference between the first half of that 60 - 79 and the second - and quite a big one between the first three quarters of that band and the 75 - 79 one. It is over 80% of deaths seem to be 75 plus.

Deaths will be the last thing to be influenced by the vaccinations but the only ones to be meaningfully so until the Spring when more younger people (by far the most catching it right now as the Northern Ireland data posted each afternoon shows) - other than with the care home and hospital staff which should reduce infections via them in there.

But I track the percentage in the (useless as they are) groups of ages we are given daily for deaths looking for a hint day to day. And do not expect the government to realise why it matters to have narrower bands which they clearly can do if they choose to release it as they notify the press of the ages of the death ranges daily.

Probably any change in the death statistics in England hospitals is not going to happen until next month if we are lucky though.

 

[Healdplace]

Very interesting. I am curious but won't pry.
Your labour of love is much appreciated.
Brava!!

When this is over and I can disappear I might say more. But it really is not that exciting I promise. Just gave me insights I otherwise would not have had.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Figure been taken out of context, read this article https://www.thejc.com/news/israel/i...ectiveness-only-covers-first-14-days-1.510887

It also is efficaciousness dropping by 33% for the first 14 days - Not dropping too 33%. The reported level is 56% efficaciousness.
No news on how many get ill,seriously ill/die once injected yet as well.
Hospitalisations are down, so it is having some effect.

 

[M18CTID]

Sturgeon seems quite welcoming of this £500 suggestion to people who test positive. I can see what they're trying to do, and can understand the benefits, but I still have major concerns that people will use this to try and get themselves infected or at the very least become complacent. Potential to backfire hugely has it not?

The more you think about it, the more you can see that it’s open to abuse. Some scrote could test positive then invite all his scrotey mates round to catch it off him!

 

[roubaixtuesday]

It also is efficaciousness dropping by 33% for the first 14 days - Not dropping too 33%. The reported level is 56% efficaciousness

I don't think this is correct.

Israeli reported efficacy is zero up to 12 days, 33% from 14-18 days, and no data beyond that.

But many caveats, and nothing to worry about IMO.

See here

Coronavirus (2021) thread

Not unreasonable to suggest that Scotland will be back in triple figures soon for number of daily infections. Sounds incredible that I'm saying this given it would still represent a really high number and needs to keep driving down but its a far cry than the 2700 or so from a few weeks ago.

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