Coronavirus (2021) thread

[denislawsbackheel]

I know that we'll have vaccinated all adults by October if we keep going at our current rate.


If you want to pretend the world is ending and the vaccine won't work and we'll never get out of the pandemic, be my guest.

Carry on playing happy clappy in the nursery if it keeps you sane.

 

[BlueAnorak]

What’s up with the French?

They don't trust their own government. They never have really.

 

[kaz7]

Chris talking about the five month natural immunity

 

[domalino]

Carry on playing happy clappy in the nursery if it keeps you sane.

It's not happy clappy to believe that a vaccine that has been proven to work is going to work.

 

[BlueAnorak]

The new variant is 30% higher morbidity as well as 56% more infective.
I'm not sure the virus actually is more deadly, it is as likely to be be our immune systems being more compromised by this being winter time. Though the data may be as a result of a combination of the two.
Vitamin D supplimentation is crucial.

 

[cookster]

Tell people the new variant is more deadly, that might make more people stay at home, social distance and wear masks etc.
Am I being too cynical?

 

[domalino]

Perspective needed re this 'more deadly' thing I reckon. These are the quotes from a mirror piece.

"Professor Neil Ferguson, who sits on NERVTAG, told Peston today: "It is a realistic possibility that the new UK variant increases the risk of death, but there is considerable remaining uncertainty.

"Four groups - Imperial, LSHTM, PHE and Exeter - have looked at the relationship between people testing positive for the variant vs old strains and the risk of death.

"That suggests a 1.3-fold increased risk of death. So for 60 year-olds, 13 in 1000 might die compared with 10 in 1000 for old strains."

Firstly, there is 'considerable remaining uncertainty', and it's pretty obvious why. Their evidence is based on more people dying with it, which could be for many, many reasons. Hospitals being overwhelmed, which we know they were, is a pretty obvious reason. Even the 30% more deadly sounds terrifying, but they're not saying you have 30% more of a chance to die, which people will read it as. They're saying 13 out of 1000 may die, as opposed to 10 out of 1000. Clearly that's shite, but its not how most will read it.

Ferguson also said this accoring to Peston -


"The big caveat is that we only know which strain people were infected for about 8% of deaths"

Which makes it almost worthless as a statistic.

 

[kaz7]

Tell people the new variant is more deadly, that might make more people stay at home, social distance and wear masks etc.
Am I being too cynical?

Yes

 

[cookster]

Yes

Doesn't appear to be a huge body of data to back it up.

 

[kaz7]

Doesn't appear to be a huge body of data to back it up.

there is plenty and has been talked about for a couple of weeks