Coronavirus (2021) thread

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blueparrot said:
Pretty much as I’ve just been posting, at the moment I’m happy to accept that the push to get care homes done at the expense of the community as the reason Scotland has slipped back.Though I do expect a rapid roll out mow thats done.
If we get the rapid roll out and Scotland stays at about 1 or 2 % behind but have a quicker fall in care home deaths thats fine.
I would be questioning if Scotland wee to fall much more than a couple of percent behind.
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Yeah, pretty much where I am. Invites out to over 70's from today, hopefully that goes well and over 60's will start getting their letter this time next month.
 
England hospital deaths 3 wks v 2 wks v last wk v Today:-

376 / 36 NW / 10 %

489 / 13 NW / 3% Must have been data issues that weekend

532 / 45 NW / 9%

609 / 54 NW / 9% Today

These are underestimates as weekend reporting is low every weekend in NW.

Normal daily % is about 12% and the numbers will catch up in mid week.

609 deaths by Age

20 - 39 (3) 0.5%

40 - 59 (39) 6.4%

60 - 79 (253) 41.5%

80 PLUS (314) 51.6%


The gap between the two higher age groups is lower than normal.

Could be an anomaly of day to day numbers but IF total numbers week to week start falling AND the percentage of the highest age group falls this might be an indicator of the vaccines working as the over 80s are the first group likely to be fully protected.

Though we are nowhere near there yet and the death numbers will lag by at least a month. So not expecting much evidence of an impact until February.
 
England vaccination update

199, 202 doses yesterday. Way down from over 444K recent days

But 40 K up on the two weekend days last weekend when numbers fell quite a bit then too,

5, 727, 693 first doses 198, 592 yesterday

The other 610 were second doses
 
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Healdplace said:
As the population of England is just under 57 million that means over 10% of the entire population have had at least one dose.
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Think over 18s in England is about 75% so about43 million adults to be vaccinated. Means its well over 10%
 
Healdplace said:
England hospital deaths 3 wks v 2 wks v last wk v Today:-

376 / 36 NW / 10 %

489 / 13 NW / 3% Must have been data issues that weekend

532 / 45 NW / 9%

609 / 54 NW / 9% Today

These are underestimates as weekend reporting is low every weekend in NW.

Normal daily % is about 12% and the numbers will catch up in mid week.

609 deaths by Age

20 - 39 (3) 0.5%

40 - 59 (39) 6.4%

60 - 79 (253) 41.5%

80 PLUS (314) 51.6%


The gap between the two higher age groups is lower than normal.

Could be an anomaly of day to day numbers but IF total numbers week to week start falling AND the percentage of the highest age group falls this might be an indicator of the vaccines working as the over 80s are the first group likely to be fully protected.

Though we are nowhere near there yet and the death numbers will lag by at least a month. So not expecting much evidence of an impact until February.
Click to expand...
Well to put it another way, if the numbers dont fall in the higher age groups then the vaccines are useless and we have all been had by AZ etc. ;-)
 
blueparrot said:
Think over 18s in England is about 75% so about43 million adults to be vaccinated. Means its well over 10%
Click to expand...
If you factor in an overall uptake of 80% (& it will be probably be lower than that) then the target of giving all adults at least one shot will be achieved far quicker than what is generally accepted. Quicker still once the Johnson & Johnson one dose vaccine is available.
 
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