Coronavirus (2021) thread

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blueparrot said:
Think over 18s in England is about 75% so about43 million adults to be vaccinated. Means its well over 10%
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Agreed that is worth noting but I did not count them as whilst they are being excluded because they rarely get very sick they can still infect others so I would not exclude them from this consideration of numbers.
 
Invisible Man's Bandage said:
If you factor in an overall uptake of 80% (& it will be probably be lower than that) then the target of giving all adults at least one shot will be achieved far quicker than what is generally accepted. Quicker still once the Johnson & Johnson one dose vaccine is available.
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If we assume an 80% take up and we have roughly 43m adults aged 18+ then we are looking at circa 35m to vaccinate which equates to 70m doses if we all require two doses and we have done just over 6m so far. However if the J&J vaccine comes on stream in four weeks then maybe we might be looking at 25m adults just requiring one dose and the rest two so 61m doses in total. In four weeks time assuming these figures are correct and we do 3m per week then we only need another 43m doses doing which may be 15 weeks from the end of February. This would mean 80% of adult population would have had their one (if J&J) or both doses by the end of June which surely should mean most restrictions could be over. Am I being too optimistic in saying we could be back at the stadium in August, cinemas, restaurants etc could be open and overseas holidays could be on the cards assuming other countries will let us in. Lots of assumptions I know especially with the J&J coming on stream in four weeks but we have to look at the positives now don't we?
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
Well to put it another way, if the numbers dont fall in the higher age groups then the vaccines are useless and we have all been had by AZ etc. ;-)
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Agreed but it is hard to judge from the split in ages Gov UK use as it has no discrimination between the upper age ranges where differences would first be apparent. It should be subdivided further to properly judge any changes. But our data presentation has not exactly been moon shot material throughout sadly. What with things like this and the disinterest in the crucial positivity rating in England. Does not suggest whoever is publishing this data wants to help such assessments of what is happening and prefers to keep it controlled so the plebs can read it via a press release or press conference graphs as and when it looks good.
 
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Northern Ireland Update:


3 wks v 2 wks v last wk v today: Deaths / Cases / % positivity / Patients / Ventilated

12d / 1801c / 38.1%/ 599p / 32v

6d / 759 c / 28,9% / 736p / 37v

19d / 640c / 30.8%/ 823p / 51v

17d / 422c / 26.2% / 828 p / 50v Today
 
The number of care homes in Northern Ireland with outbreak down 1 to 135.

The rolling weekly total of cases falls from 6647 last Monday and on Friday when last reported (5534) to 4921 today

Very strong evidence of the falling numbers in the province. Starting to show in the hospital numbers flattening too.

Deaths hopefully have peaked there too.
 
592 all settings deaths and 22, 195 cases!


Has to be very low testing as that is welcome but unexpected.

As suspected 394, 479. it is low.

Even so 5.6% positivity is tremendous news. Matching the falling positivity numbers in the other home nations.


It was 465, 231 yesterday (Saturday data) for 30, 004 cases = 6.4 % positive

And 608, 829 (Friday data) for 33, 552 cases = 5,5% positive


These are just pillar 1 & 2 tests. It would be even lower with other tests added, which I never include.

No wonder we have a press conference at 5 pm!

Though it is Sunday data and deaths are always low as a result.

Even so it is down 7 from 599 all settings last Monday.

We may be close to or even at the plateau of this wave.
 
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