Coronavirus (2021) thread

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uk cases by specimen date per 100k, seven day rolling sum (up to Dec 29th but now including the very uncertain data up to 2nd Jan).

there are obvious 'issues' around the festive period which will show as flashy peaks and troughs, even with this simple smoothing. Predict about 4 more days of data to get the trend sorted to NYE.

edit: i have decided to adjust the graph to show the very uncertain numbers from the last 5 days. These numbers will only go up, as they are added to over time, so they can be misleading as they nearly always show a downward trend. However this time, i think it's an important illustration that the latest data is still increasing on the 30th/31st, and is still incomplete. covid_rates_REGIONAL.png
 
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Marvin said:
Yes. I strongly agree with this but I am concerned about the variants, and vaccine evasion.
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Don’t think there will be much evasion, what there is though will be more younger middle aged, than over 65s.
Ever older person I’ve spoken to can’t wait to get it and start making the most of their later years. And though it sounds a bit morbid, seeing their friends and saying goodbye to their friends sick in hospitals / care homes or at funerals, they are finding not doing that that the most upsetting.
 
blueparrot said:
Don’t think there will be much evasion, what there is though will be more younger middle aged, than over 65s.
Ever older person I’ve spoken to can’t wait to get it and start making the most of their later years. And though it sounds a bit morbid, seeing their friends and saying goodbye to their friends sick in hospitals / care homes or at funerals, they are finding not doing that that the most upsetting.
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Real fear of death seems to knock any anti-vax shit on its head immediately.
 
kippaxwarrior said:
Lots of schools in Manchester not re-opening(i would imagine that's the case around the country) Surely its matter of days or even hours before an announcement is made
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This might help in buying us time but lockdowns just delay the inevitable (although I practise social distancing too!). Ultimately it's immunity that matters. What will be devastating is if the virus evolves in such a way that immunity from infection is rendered less efficient. From what all the experts have said the vaccines should still work, but months after the discovery of the variants we still don't know.

Encouragingly we're not hearing thousands of reports from the South East of repeat infections. For example, if the variant had evaded the antibodies from to the wild-type, surely we'd see it in repeat infections in hospital workers? There's also the South African variant too.
 
Marvin said:
This might help in buying us time but lockdowns just delay the inevitable (although I practise social distancing too!). Ultimately it's immunity that matters. What will be devastating is if the virus evolves in such a way that immunity from infection is rendered less efficient. From what all the experts have said the vaccines should still work, but months after the discovery of the variants we still don't know.

Encouragingly we're not hearing thousands of reports from the South East of repeat infections. For example, if the variant had evaded the antibodies from to the wild-type, surely we'd see it in repeat infections in hospital workers? There's also the South African variant too.
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So you want schools to remind open?

Are you a parent of a young child? Just asking as my 7 year old lad us due back in on Wednesday and I'm becoming increasingly concerned about his welfare if he goes back due to infection rates soaring.

For me his wellbeing
comes before anything else and that includes his education
 
domalino said:
It doesn't matter, the protection offered by the first dose is enough to stop the pandemic as a public health crisis.
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The thing is I doubt the government will reopen things until everyone has had their two doses, add that to not much data yet on reduction in transmission, and whether the Oxford vaccine protects the over 65s adequately, it’s gonna be a long year. Plus I’ve heard the health secretary is worried about the South African variant
 
kippaxwarrior said:
So you want schools to remind open?

Are you a parent of a young child? Just asking as my 7 year old lad us due back in on Wednesday and I'm becoming increasingly concerned about his welfare if he goes back due to infection rates soaring.

For me his wellbeing
comes before anything else and that includes his education
Click to expand...
We have a 6 and a 9 year old, due back Thursday. Fortunately our school hasn’t had any cases, no years sent home.
For me their well being is so much more than the virus. Mentally the youngests behaviour deteriorated terribly during the first lockdown and improved once returned.
 
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