Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Healdplace said:
Yes that worries me too.

What I do is not difficult just time consuming and I have the time and enough understanding of science acquired in the job I had for years to follow data.

But I am not remotely an expert and I really have to believe that someone is doing similar briefings to those who make the decisions both locally and nationally. And I am sure that they must do as it is too important to ignore.

I can only presume they understand things I do not and my guesses about why things that look obvious are not done have reasons I am not qualified to judge and they are.

Because it looks wrong to me does not mean it is wrong.
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I think they put too much reliance on the 7 day averages early on, because of all the daily peaks and troughs (it makes sense to smooth the curves), and it's just become "habit" to follow that data, fine when things are stable, but terrible if there is a major spike taking place, they must be seriously worried by the 50k+ days now, after effectively locking down 60% of the population.

I think the key is keeping schools open in the areas of rapid spread, whilst most others were stuck at home, so it's spread in kids through their mixing, and then been taken home to spread there.

Like you I use a lot of data in life, and all your analysis has seemed sound to me, I've not been following it as closely, but I have followed my own area, and the rapid increase was in the 2 weeks before we went from tier 2 to 4 in three days, as my chart above suggests, it might have now levelled out, but it's at a very high level.
 
cleavers said:
I've been following our (LA) daily numbers since we went into tier 4. (zero yesterday)

The rise seems to have at least levelled off, the data on 19th, 20th, and 21st looks a bit weird like there was missing data added on on the 21st, the sudden drop is Christmas day, so I doubt many were tested that day.


View attachment 7434
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Same with my borough - the last 8 days have been approx 340/350 twice, in the 400s three times, 120 on 25th, 170 on 30th, 44 yesterday, 422 today.

No clear conclusion possible, although it looks to have flattened.
 
MillionMilesAway said:
No clear conclusion possible, although it looks to have flattened.
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Yeah, it would be nice to see it start going down, but the weekends and holidays are not helping to either show reliable data, or prevent people getting together against the rules.

It will be midweek next week before we know if this tier 4 is doing anything really.
 
www.theguardian.com

Ministers urged to close all schools in England for two weeks

Call comes after government said all primaries in London should remain closed next week
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

just get on with it, do a proper lockdown, shut all the schools crank up everything and everyone and vaccinate as much as we can. Stop pissing about with bits bobs tiers and fucking delaying the inevitable
 
johnnytapia said:
www.theguardian.com

Ministers urged to close all schools in England for two weeks

Call comes after government said all primaries in London should remain closed next week
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

just get on with it, do a proper lockdown, shut all the schools crank up everything and everyone and vaccinate as much as we can. Stop pissing about with bits bobs tiers and fucking delaying the inevitable
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A proper lockdown was needed when sage told them too, if not sept then a couple of weeks ago . It was disgusting in my town yesterday esp in tesco , proper lost my rag
 
Ric said:
Surely if they’re closing primary schools in one Tier 4 area then they have to close in all Tier 4 areas?!
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Every rep should have had an email moments ago about a national update meeting tomorrow:
In light of the growing crisis, the National Education Union (NEU) has called an emergency meeting of our union’s executive, which will take place tomorrow.

Immediately after the executive, we will be holding a Zoom call for our reps and branch secretaries to explain the decisions we have taken.

The Zoom call for reps and branch secretaries will be held on Saturday, 2 January, from 12-1pm, with joint general secretaries Mary Bousted and Kevin Courtney, chaired by NEU president Robin Bevan.

You can register for the call by clicking here.
gbr01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com

Welcome! You are invited to join a webinar: Emergency NEU meeting with Kevin and Mary for districts and reps. After registering, you will receive a confirmation email about joining the webinar.

Emergency NEU meeting with Joint General Secretaries Kevin and Mary for districts and reps
gbr01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com gbr01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com
 
This is why this country is in such a shit state, these idiots are useless when deciding on anything constantly going back on things that are plain to see. Shut the schools for a few weeks that’s a month off others it’s going to go through the roof.
 
Might already have been mentioned, apologies if so only scrolled back a couple of pages.

Dr Fauci has confirmed that America won't be following the UK in using the initially proposed 2nd dose to vaccinate more people sooner. They'll be running with the initial plan based on the data and evidence they have available to them and running with the 2nd dose within the 21 day period.

Actually saw the perfect reply to this which kind of sums it up:

"I'd rather get 2 doses than 1,but I'd rather get 1 dose than zero"

Really hope this pays off with what we're doing.
 
Do we have enough vaccine close the country down again and start calling people forward to be vaccinated, open up football stadiums to get people in, 55000 at the Ethiad in a day would be done, do that round the country and you are halfway there. No vaccine you don’t travel abroad, let’s see all these twats refuse it then
 
Is tier 4 meant to be as strict as the first national lockdown ?

I guess it isnt as supermarkets are allowed to sell everything from food to clothes and electronics etc.

This is unfair on other retailers and just forces more people into supermarkets, if other shops were open than people wouldnt over crowd supermarkets for clothes and irons etc ;). But I guess the supermarkets fund the tory party so the government keeps the other shops like premark, currys etc closed while the supermarket can sell everything.

Surely if the government only want people in tier 4 to only go out for food, medicine or work make supermarkets only sell food. It's not rocket science !
 
Blue Maverick said:
This is why this country is in such a shit state, these idiots are useless when deciding on anything constantly going back on things that are plain to see. Shut the schools for a few weeks that’s a month off others it’s going to go through the roof.
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It’s purely political. Trying to score educational points. I was delighted to see the pupils return in September but the numbers now mean we must change tack and close. And not some two bob day by day thing. Shut. Everywhere. The deleterious effect of missing school can, over time, be rectified. It will be nothing compared to the illness and deaths if they stay open. The data has changed dramatically. So now, should the policy.
 
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