Coronavirus (2021) thread

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kaz7 said:
I get it from cnn , they have several who were in hospital first time but tested positive later on after going back to work , research will catch up
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That's not reinfection. Most likely debris from the original infection.
There's only been 10 documented cases world wide according to this
"Of nearly 30 million cases to date since December 2019, there have been only about 10 documented and confirmed cases of re-infections. These data suggest that resistance to reinfection might be less a function of durability of the immune response and more one of breadth,” said the authors, led by Deepta Bhattacharya, an immunobiologist at the University of Arizona College of Medicine" dated 15/11/2020
 
gordondaviesmoustache said:
Might be a bit of work for me there...
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False alarm, I’ve just been in the park for a walk and walked through the town.

Even got a butty and a brew from the Norfolk Arms.

Maintained distancing of course, there was only us and one other couple waiting there and we stood away.
 
Gaylord du Bois said:
That's not reinfection. Most likely debris from the original infection.
There's only been 10 documented cases world wide according to this
"Of nearly 30 million cases to date since December 2019, there have been only about 10 documented and confirmed cases of re-infections. These data suggest that resistance to reinfection might be less a function of durability of the immune response and more one of breadth,” said the authors, led by Deepta Bhattacharya, an immunobiologist at the University of Arizona College of Medicine" dated 15/11/2020
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Surely it’s going to get to the point where so many have had it the deaths will start to go down?

I know more that have had it than not.
 
N Ireland is two day data but still worrying.

Deaths 26 (was 20 last Saturday)

Cases 3576 - highest in ages even being x 2. Last week 998.

The positivity rating of these cases was 38.2%
 
Gaylord du Bois said:
That's not reinfection. Most likely debris from the original infection.
There's only been 10 documented cases world wide according to this
"Of nearly 30 million cases to date since December 2019, there have been only about 10 documented and confirmed cases of re-infections. These data suggest that resistance to reinfection might be less a function of durability of the immune response and more one of breadth,” said the authors, led by Deepta Bhattacharya, an immunobiologist at the University of Arizona College of Medicine" dated 15/11/2020
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Anecdotally there have been a lot of suspected cases of reinfection, I'm not saying it is common it is probably uncommon but a lot more common than 10 documented cases suggest. Documenting cases accurately is very hard work and not worth most peoples time once it's been done a few times.
One of New Yorks leading Infectious control doctors was saying in a podcast that at his hospital they are admitting a few people this time round who they saw in the first wave which is likely to be reinfection.
When PHE was looking for evidence of differences in reinfection between the new strain and the old strain they defined it as a positive pcr test more than 90 days prior to that ie over three months and were finding between 1 and 2 per thousand were possible reinfections on that definition.
Most people are undoubtedly protected from re-infection but it is probable that a minority are not what the size of that minority is is very uncertain. The length the protection lasts is also very uncertain.
 
England hospital deaths 383 with just 16 from NW but that will be low due to the New Years closure of offices. Just like weekend registrations are always lower in NW. They will get added on early next week.

For comparison last Saturday (from Christmas day data) only 4 were added from the NW. But was in the 40s when catch up was added later. And that was from an England number 7 days ago HALF of today's.
 
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crooky said:
Is that taking into account this new 'super' strain though?
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Yes. Antibodies still catch the fucker.
See PHE reports on the new strain.
All vaccines target multiple strings of amino acids that form proteins on the virus spike.
All seem to still work.
Incidently onecof the three target areas for the PCR test no longer works, so if they could be bothered they could trace back through historical tests to identify where the mutation occurred and if indeed the mutation happened in the UK.
Eventually the vaccines will become selection pressure on the virus to stop antibodies attaching. Which is why they change the Flu vaccine every year.
 
Ban-jani said:
Surely it’s going to get to the point where so many have had it the deaths will start to go down?

I know more that have had it than not.
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I think estimates of total infected in uk are still well below 20%

*If* they are all immune, then that reduces R by a factor of 0.8

R for the original variant was ~3.5, so would reduce to ~2.8.

Which is still catastrophically bad. There's probably potential for well north of another 200,000 people to die yet. Govt policy is dangerously close ton testing this out over the next 3 months.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
I think estimates of total infected in uk are still well below 20%

*If* they are all immune, then that reduces R by a factor of 0.8

R for the original variant was ~3.5, so would reduce to ~2.8.

Which is still catastrophically bad. There's probably potential for well north of another 200,000 people to die yet. Govt policy is dangerously close ton testing this out over the next 3 months.
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We obviously need a full national lockdown like March-April now.
 
BlueAnorak said:
Yes. Antibodies still catch the fucker.
See PHE reports on the new strain.
All vaccines target multiple strings of amino acids that form proteins on the virus spike.
All seem to still work.
Incidently onecof the three target areas for the PCR test no longer works, so if they could be bothered they could trace back through historical tests to identify where the mutation occurred and if indeed the mutation happened in the UK.
Eventually the vaccines will become selection pressure on the virus to stop antibodies attaching. Which is why they change the Flu vaccine every year.
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I came across this yesterday which has an account for how the variant developed. I didn't follow up on the source it references to see how believable it is.

Matt Ridley Blog
 
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