Coronavirus (2021) thread

[SWP's back]

The Pao probably wants a quick buck from a will, so do not want them vaccinated.

That went through my mind but I’m a cynical ****.

 

[Invisible Man's Bandage]

Question, is the 1st and 2nd dose the exact same thing being injected?

I'd imagine so as we have supplies of both Pfizer & AZ so no need to mix & match currently.

 

[Healdplace]

New Zealand’s economy is growing back above pre pandemic levels. The Countries that took tougher decisions tend to have recovering economies.

I agree that we should have done this but it seems hard to imagine any major change of tack since we are waiting until the twelfth of never before even stopping people coming here without self isolation after weeks of 'urgent' investigation on how to handle a few thousand not millions.

I know it is much easier in some countries than here but I am assuming we cannot or will not given experience to date.

 

[Ban-jani]

I'd imagine so as we have supplies of both Pfizer & AZ so no need to mix & match currently.

I mean, let’s say you have the AZ vaccine and you get the 2nd dose of it, is the 2nd dose the exact same stuff as the 1st or does the 2nd dose differ?

 

[asahartford1]

I am guessing because the virus will almost certainly mutate at some point to outwit the vaccine. And we will need to revaccinate to make up for that this autumn. But there will always be a gap between new strain v vaccine tweaked to deal with it - so we will be chasing the virus possibly for years in this way until it is eradicated globally and/or the UK isolates itself like New Zealand or the Isle of Man. Which we likely cannot or will not.

So rapid monitoring and lockdowns to stop spread might still be necessary for short periods maybe for a year or two. Though not on the scale up to know I would hope.

And this is probably worst case scenario but one we will have to anticipate in case.

Is covid a particularly intelligent virus ?

 

[Rammy Blue]

The effectiveness (<100%) and take up of the vaccine (<100%) plus unvaccinated children leave room for another wave, given how high the inherent R number is.

That's my understanding, but could be wrong.

But surely if it only results in mild illness it shouldn’t be much of an issue?

 

[Invisible Man's Bandage]

I mean, let’s say you have the AZ vaccine and you get the 2nd dose of it, is the 2nd dose the exact same stuff as the 1st or does the 2nd dose differ?

Ah, that's an interesting question.

You would hope so.

 

[Healdplace]

Is covid a particularly intelligent virus ?

Well it has made a monkey out of plenty of world leaders so has some intelligence. Though I agree that does not necessarily say very much :)

But it is rapidly mutating and these kind of viruses do. The way it works is - if by chance it hits on a mutation that evades the vaccine - then that gains an advantage.

It was not intelligence that made a brontosaurus or a giraffe evolve a long neck. Just that those who did had an advantage and so thrived. And became dominant by natural selection.

Same happens with viruses.

Does not mean we cannot identify them quickly, isolate and stop them and these vaccines are designed to allow that to be possible in weeks. But this still will require some caution not a gung ho approach to tomorrow's post Covid world. It will be a new normal that is not like the old normal but much more like it than now. For at least a year or two I suspect

 

[kaz7]

Covid wont go away , we have no idea if we need to give everyone a booster in oct / nov/ dec time , nobody or just the vulnerable , whether it will be a joint one with the flu vaccine etc. Whitty saying we will need masks and handwashing next winter seems obvious to me, summer will be good but what happens then ? Immunity question is not sorted yet

 

[Ban-jani]

Ah, that's an interesting question.

You would hope so.

It may need to be like that, to be honest, I just don’t know.

 

[asahartford1]

Well it has made a monkey out of plenty of world leaders so has some intelligence. Though I agree that does not necessarily say very much :)

But it is rapidly mutating and these kind of viruses do. The way it works is - if by chance it hits on a mutation that evades the vaccine - then that gains an advantage.

It was not intelligence that made a brontosaurus or a giraffe evolve a long neck. Just that those who did had an advantage and so thrived. And became dominant by natural selection.

Same happens with viruses.

Cheers, I listened to one Oxford expert who reckoned it was not a particularly good mutator. She was quite unimpressed with its' mutations. Those virus experts are loving it.

 

[Healdplace]

Covid wont go away , we have no idea if we need to give everyone a booster in oct / nov/ dec time , nobody or just the vulnerable , whether it will be a joint one with the flu vaccine etc. Whitty saying we will need masks and handwashing next winter seems obvious to me, summer will be good but what happens then ? Immunity question is not sorted yet

The vaccine companies are already planning for the possibility that we may need an annual update for the over 50s every year for the foreseeable and one has already announced an October date to have one ready.

Think this will become routine in the medium term like flu jabs with a choice and up to you to balance risk but probably only free on the NHS to over 50s and on offer like flu jabs to the rest at £10 or so via Boots.

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

Apologies for what might seem a stupid question, and I did glance quick at the graphs a couple of pages back, but just in layman’s terms why would we have a 4th wave/surge in deaths to higher than the current peak when in theory all adults (or at least over 80% take up and herd immunity levels reached) should have been vaccinated by about summertime? Am I missing something? I thought the whole point of mass vaccination meant we either didn’t catch it or even if we did it’d be a mild illness?

we wont have another surge in deaths, the virus will still be arround but vacinations will mean it will just be a mild illness with few people hospitalised. The vaccine is a game changer.

 

[Healdplace]

Cheers, I listened to one Oxford expert who reckoned it was not a particularly good mutator. She was quite unimpressed with its' mutations. Those virus experts are loving it.

It does not have to be its main plus is that6 millions of people are catching it weekly so even if it was Division 4 level sheer numbers mean it is going to mutate more than most as there are far more opportunities than a disease that is fairly well suppressed and not literally global.

 

[worsleyweb]

we wont have another surge in deaths, the virus will still be arround but vacinations will mean it will just be a mild illness with few people hospitalised. The vaccine is a game changer.

well said.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

But surely if it only results in mild illness it shouldn’t be much of an issue?

Vaccine effectiveness and vaccine take up leave enough space for those death numbers I would guess.

If that means say 25% still susceptible that's enough for a lot of deaths, and the very high R number from new variant means you get them as a spike.

Just my amateur interpretation.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

well said.

Have a read of that report I posted.

 

[Healdplace]

we wont have another surge in deaths, the virus will still be arround but vacinations will mean it will just be a mild illness with few people hospitalised. The vaccine is a game changer.

Hopefully that is how it evolves yes. It is the end game that suits both humans and virus. The only reason for virulent strains to form is that we are winning and it has sent on its new star striker.

We agree to settle for a 1-1 draw and that is how it will probably morph into.

As said earlier the reflection of that is a virus that infects and rarely kills or makes you very sick by a kind of natural osmosis as intelligence is not involved just science.

We do not need to eradicate the virus just create a balance where we live together and track and stop any dangerous mutations that might arise.

The good legacy from this is we might actually end up with a world beating track and trace and testing facility to stop some other virus sneaking up on us in the next pandemic.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

I mean, let’s say you have the AZ vaccine and you get the 2nd dose of it, is the 2nd dose the exact same stuff as the 1st or does the 2nd dose differ?

Yes.

Interestingly, the Russian vaccine uses two different viral vectors for the two doses, the intention being to get around any immune response to the vector reducing 2nd dose efficacy.

 

[M18CTID]

They were last roundly ridiculed for protecting daily deaths too high.

The number at issue? 200 daily.

Remind me how doom-mongering that turned out.

Redirect Notice

www.google.com

Reading that article from September, it states the latest daily total of 11 deaths. What we’d give for figures like that now.