Coronavirus (2021) thread

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roubaixtuesday said:
I haven't said it will be worse. Indeed, I've said this summer should be better than last.

I have said there is *potential* for a third spike higher than the second just passed. If we open up too fast.

And it's not what I think, it's an expert report. Have a read - worth paying attention to experts I think.
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If let’s say by Jun/July we have vaccinated the adult population of the UK and the vaccine works . Why will there be a spike worst than the 2nd spike ?
 
sky tot said:
If let’s say by Jun/July we have vaccinated the adult population of the UK and the vaccine works . Why will there be a spike worst than the 2nd spike ?
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This is just my interpretation.

*if* we remove all restrictions then the R number of the new variant will be close to five.

*if* 80% of people are vaccinated and the vaccines are 80% effective, and children are unvaccinated, then there is enough space for the virus to grow exponentially again.

It then runs through the unvaccinated population, and those for whatever reason the vaccine is ineffective, then the death rate can exceed 1000 a day.

I don't think this is bad news per se, it's just a reason to be cautious about opening up, and monitor things closely.

The end is still in sight, this is informing the best route to take.
 
I see people are arguing over doom monger/happy clapper nonsense again. People are different. Give it a rest.
 
Greater Manchester summary

Despite the small NW fall of 51 - Greater Manchester is UP today. By 31 to 968.

AS a result the NW % share from GM shot up again to a recent high of 38.9%.

Way up from the 25% or so it was around Christmas when Merseyside was scoring high. It has fallen more rapidly than GM has.

Today in GM Manchester back up over 200 at 210. Salford also up to its highest in a week or two at 126. And Bolton still up on where it was at 125.

All the other 7 boroughs are sub 100 and all bar Wigan are down on where they were yesterday and even Wigan is down week to week.

So the three big scores above are the main reason GM rose today when NW fell.

And overall there is still a slow fall. Just slower than the southern regions.
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
Why ignore the facts I posted above to focus solely on a pessimistic report? Perhaps we should just lock ourselves away forever and not bother with a vaccine? You come across as someone who might be an advocate of that idea?
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It's not a pessimistic report, and it takes into account the facts you quote.
 
cleavers said:
I think they have a reciprocal agreement with Oz, and if people can't leave, their domestic tourism will be improved hugely, and they are very fortunate to have the full gamut of tourism from tropical to skiing within their borders.
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Think they’re making a shit load and f TV & movies there atm (Amazon’s Lord of the Rings TV series & Avatar 2&3...).
 
roubaixtuesday said:
This is just my interpretation.

*if* we remove all restrictions then the R number of the new variant will be close to five.

*if* 80% of people are vaccinated and the vaccines are 80% effective, and children are unvaccinated, then there is enough space for the virus to grow exponentially again.

It then runs through the unvaccinated population, and those for whatever reason the vaccine is ineffective, then the death rate can exceed 1000 a day.

I don't think this is bad news per se, it's just a reason to be cautious about opening up, and monitor things closely.

The end is still in sight, this is informing the best route to take.
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Greatest of respect, youre just guessing and other than posting a graph without any solid explanation you have then failed to offer any reasonable explanation to the genuine questions posed by me and others.

Being entirely selfish, you’re saying above about it running through the population who didn’t take the vaccine, why would that bother me? And you think they would keep restrictions in place to protect people who didn’t to the detriment of those who did have the jab?

Plus, as I said earlier that didn’t get a decent response, if the vaccine means you just get a mild illness then why would there be a spike larger than the current one?

Just makes no sense whatsoever.
 
sky tot said:
If let’s say by Jun/July we have vaccinated the adult population of the UK and the vaccine works . Why will there be a spike worst than the 2nd spike ?
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Why are you asking him, it isn’t his report he didn’t do the research he just posted it. Read it then believe it or don’t. I read it and don’t quite understand it. So aren’t in any position to disbelieve it or not, but will assume it’s based on some science.
 
Rammy Blue said:
Greatest of respect, youre just guessing and other than posting a graph without any solid explanation you have then failed to offer any reasonable explanation to the genuine questions posed by me and others.

Being entirely selfish, you’re saying above about it running through the population who didn’t take the vaccine, why would that bother me? And you think they would keep restrictions in place to protect people who didn’t to the detriment of those who did have the jab?

Plus, as I said earlier that didn’t get a decent response, if the vaccine means you just get a mild illness then why would there be a spike larger than the current one?

Just makes no sense whatsoever.
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the roll out is faster than anticipated and also the impact the vaccine has on spread. How can there be a bigger spike when the over 50s are vaccinated. Report or not? Can someone explain that to me?
 
blueparrot said:
Why are you asking him, it isn’t his report he didn’t do the research he just posted it. Read it then believe it or don’t. I read it and don’t quite understand it. So aren’t in any position to disbelieve it or not, but will assume it’s based on some science.
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Well personally I don’t agree with posting a report like that without any sort of explanations to it, if you say you’ve read it and didn’t particularly understand it then imo it’s pointless putting it in here.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
This is just my interpretation.

*if* we remove all restrictions then the R number of the new variant will be close to five.

*if* 80% of people are vaccinated and the vaccines are 80% effective, and children are unvaccinated, then there is enough space for the virus to grow exponentially again.

It then runs through the unvaccinated population, and those for whatever reason the vaccine is ineffective, then the death rate can exceed 1000 a day.

I don't think this is bad news per se, it's just a reason to be cautious about opening up, and monitor things closely.

The end is still in sight, this is informing the best route to take.
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Thanks
 
worsleyweb said:
the roll out is faster than anticipated and also the impact the vaccine has on spread. How can there be a bigger spike when the over 50s are vaccinated. Report or not? Can someone explain that to me?
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Well, I tried, but I don't think you're listening.
 
So, after my positive test result on Weds, I've got past the crippling headaches and now at the wheezing stage when I breath in and out, I had a lovely 20 hour sleep Yesterday though! Bad news is, my Son's nursery is now closed as 2 of the agency staff tested positive, one of my colleagues who tested also twsted positive on Weds messaged this afternoon to tell me his mother in law, father in law and sister in law all tested positive as well Yesterday and his Daughters nursery is also closed as 6 positive cases. Just shows how quickly things can escalate!
 
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