Coronavirus (2021) thread

[MillionMilesAway]

It looks like there are still 10,000 new cases a day - where are they coming from?
Presumably asymptomatic people (incl. kids) out and about?

 

[blueparrot]

I don't pay any attention to what the different papers are speculating/demanding/being briefed about the easing of Lockdown.

But is sub-1000 (assume in England) cases even possible ? Were we ever at that level in the Summer when we had testing ramped up and widely available ? That would equate to less than TEN cases a day in the Manchester LA area.

Think the lowest in July was about 550 / day

 

[paulchapo]

It looks like there are still 10,000 new cases a day - where are they coming from?
Presumably asymptomatic people (incl. kids) out and about?

I went for my weekly shop in Altrincham yesterday and it was like a bank holiday, loads of people about. Couples and families still shopping together, hardly anyone doing as requested and shopping alone. Gangs of teenagers all walking about. In my street kids from different families playing together and in and out of each others houses and grandparents and other people visiting. I am not surprised we aren't coming down and if anything rising, although Trafford was doing well I believe.

 

[trumpton]

Great news mate, and 100% behind you on the scare mongering by the idiots. My dads 77, but contracted Covid a few weeks back, he spent a night in hospital but is on the road to recovery now.

He’s been advised by the consultants to wait 28 days before getting the vaccine so I’ve booked him in for Day 29. He’s been reluctant because some of the rumours and wanted the “English one only”, had a chat and he’s sorted his head out now thankfully!

Same with my mother. Long story short but finally had her first jab at home this morning from the nurse from the GP surgery. She was in and out in 2 minutes. Second one booked for 4th May.

 

[shemnel]

I don't pay any attention to what the different papers are speculating/demanding/being briefed about the easing of Lockdown.

But is sub-1000 (assume in England) cases even possible ? Were we ever at that level in the Summer when we had testing ramped up and widely available ? That would equate to less than TEN cases a day in the Manchester LA area.

from about 13th June to 10th August last summer, the UK was sub 1000 cases each day. I think tests were about 100k to 200k per day.

depends what metric we want take forward; it was posited that case testing could diminish, save money and return some normality, and just monitor severe illness going into hospital. However i expect they'll want to keep testing levels up to look out for new strains?

 

[Healdplace]

522 England hospital deaths by age range:

20 - 39 (4) 0.8%

40 - 59 (45) 8.6%

60 - 79 (216) 41.4%

80 PLUS (257) 49.2%


Nothing notable changed here but that is now about 6 days on the run it has been sub 50% for the over 80s. Which is the only thing we really should expect to see change this early as sadly many of these deaths started the path to there when only two or three weeks of vaccinations had occurred - around Christmas/New Year.

 

[Tim of the Oak]

This guy is an Epidemiologist at Edinburgh University

 

[Mike N]

So, taking everything into account, does anyone think Easter will be when a substantial change in lockdown happens?

 

[roubaixtuesday]

But is sub-1000 (assume in England) cases even possible ? Were we ever at that level in the Summer when we had testing ramped up and widely available ?

The whole UK was near or below 1000 for the whole of June, July and August last year.

Germany, with a higher population was considerably lower for quite a long time.

Without vaccines.

 

[Invisible Man's Bandage]

312,669 first shots delivered in England yesterday so that isn't a noticeable drop for Tuesday figures recently. Very encouraging.

 

[paulchapo]

The whole UK was near or below 1000 for the whole of June, July and August last year.

Germany, with a higher population was considerably lower for quite a long time.

Without vaccines.

View attachment 10702

Interesting regarding Germany. I wonder if it is their lifestyle, particular amongst the older population? Everytime I encounter them on holiday they always seem to be doing some sort of sporting activity, even if it is bombing along walking using those ski sticks.

 

[Manc Born & Bred]

This guy is an Epidemiologist at Edinburgh University

Would love to know how that is tracked. For instance if a family of four that sat on a beach all day then went to a restaurant before going home then tested positive three days later would they link that to the restaurant or what they did for three days at home? Really hard to understand how it is tracked. they are saying that around 30-40% of cases involve someone who has been to a supermarket seven days prior to testing positive but that doesn't mean that the supermarkets are a huge spreader does it? Looking how people are still behaving like twats I can see why people are still catching the virus.

 

[Healdplace]

Northern Ireland data

6 deaths - was 4 last week

297 cases - was 336 last week

16.2 % positivity - was 16.3% last week

7 day rolling total 2047 - down from 2070 yesterday and 2596 last week

53 Care Home outbreaks - down from 64 yesterday and 96 last week.

434 patients - down 40 since yesterday and from 544 last week

45 ventilated - same as yesterday - down from 57 last week


Best figures of the day here so far.

The care home drop has been quite remarkable in the past 10 days.

The vaccine is the most likely reason why.

 

[mosssideblue]

The goalposts seem to be shifting on lifting restrictions all the time

first off it was once groups 1-4 are done

then it was 3 weeks after groups 1-9

now it’s variants and case numbers

Personally think it should be outdoor hospitality in April

indoor in May

then from July onwards I don’t think there’s justification for any restrictions really, everyone who wants one will have had 1 jab, the mosy at risk will have had 2

However and whenever they lift lockdown, we cannot afford to do it too soon and are forced backwards again

 

[unicorn]

That's the hardest question ever.

Assuming Schools start to re-open in March figure will no doubt go up as well.

Personally I think we need to be at the most in the mid single thousands infections per day....that however, may never/not happen until late April/May.

I'm lucky that financially living as we are in no hardship all I miss is playing Golf (spring to autumn), going to City and going for an afternoon beer. I'm fully aware that other people have mental issues, financial ones, family issues, a vested interest is hospitality etc. In essence it's the Govt job ideally taking advice from Scientists who should be looking at the position impartially.

I have similar priorities (my walks are just minus the hitting a ball around !).

While I think we're in a better place than I could have hoped for 3 months ago I have a real concern that re-opening schools on 8th March will produce a spike in cases amongst the unvaccinated 40-50 year olds.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Interesting regarding Germany. I wonder if it is their lifestyle, particular amongst the older population? Everytime I encounter them on holiday they always seem to be doing some sort of sporting activity, even if it is bombing along walking using those ski sticks.

They had a very effective test/trace/isolate system, which much of their success is ascribed to. Once cases are low enough that every one can be chased down, restrictions can be eased without the epidemic growing.

But that graph should also give a bit of hope to everyone - if we could do that last summer without a vaccine we sure as hell should be able to with a vaccine.

The only real danger, I think, is relaxing too much too soon and setting off a 4th wave amongst the still vulnerable and unvaccinated.

 

[Tim of the Oak]

Would love to know how that is tracked. For instance if a family of four that sat on a beach all day then went to a restaurant before going home then tested positive three days later would they link that to the restaurant or what they did for three days at home? Really hard to understand how it is tracked. they are saying that around 30-40% of cases involve someone who has been to a supermarket seven days prior to testing positive but that doesn't mean that the supermarkets are a huge spreader does it? Looking how people are still behaving like twats I can see why people are still catching the virus.

I am a bit sceptical myself but it was evident that photographers were exaggerating how busy the beaches were by using long angle pics. Reporters on the ground said that social was being complied with from what they could see.

There was a massive pile on against the people who went to the beaches but we don’t know their circumstances eg did they live in flats or have garden to take in the sun etc. the holier than thou crowd tried to compare beach goers with big house parties that carried far greater risks from Covid.

 

[paulchapo]

I have similar priorities (my walks are just minus the hitting a ball around !).

While I think we're in a better place than I could have hoped for 3 months ago I have a real concern that re-opening schools on 8th March will produce a spike in cases amongst the unvaccinated 40-50 year olds.

I have mixed feelings on the school situation. All the kids and teens here are mixing as normal out of school anyway.

 

[Healdplace]

Northern Ireland past 7 days cases by age

0 - 19 (228) 11.1%

20 - 39 (783) 38. 3%

40 - 59 (646) 31.6%

60 - 79 (292) 14.3%

80 PLUS (97) 4.7%


Under 20% over 60 testing positive is regular now (it was quite a bit higher).

Hopefully another result of the vaccine.

 

[paulchapo]

They had a very effective test/trace/isolate system, which much of their success is ascribed to. Once cases are low enough that every one can be chased down, restrictions can be eased without the epidemic growing.

But that graph should also give a bit of hope to everyone - if we could do that last summer without a vaccine we sure as hell should be able to with a vaccine.

The only real danger, I think, is relaxing too much too soon and setting off a 4th wave amongst the still vulnerable and unvaccinated.

Yes I want an end to this living death as much as anyone, but if as it appears we are getting on top of it lets really kick it's arse hard before rushing things.