Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Marvin]

It's probably inevitable that cases will actually go up now that schools are opening and when other businesses open, but as long as the death toll keeps dropping that's as good as it's going to get.

Yes but my concern is that if the virus is allowed to replicate unchecked the nature of the illness may become more serious because the virus starts to evade certain neutralising antibody reactions.

What new have we learned about the virus in the last 3-4 months? I have learned that it has mutated to a much greater extent than we were led to believe. That suggests to me that we should be cautious about the variants and their potential. One of the governments own tests for reopening was that we should assess the risk posed by variants but dropping the focus on the R rate or new cases seems to me to go against that.

 

[Marvin]

For me this next 4 or 5 weeks will decide everything. If we can get to mid-April with no huge uptick in hospital admissions then I'd say we were good to go.

My answer to that would be that that is an almost certainty. Hospital admissions will drop. What we should do is vast amounts of genomic testing and get to grips not with the the prevalence of the Kent variant (that is doomed) but what is the R rate of the variants. Are they growing? What type of illness can they cause in vaccinated people and what is the threat posed by future mutations in those variants. The short term prognosis is good but no one seems to have a good handle on the threat posed by variant strains. I am not forecasting doom, I am suggesting we avoid a growing epidemic to mitigate risk whilst uncertainty exists.

What the experts are now telling us is that we should shift focus from the new cases to hospitalisations but I would say we need to watch and understand what is happening to the virus now. What happens to it now, and its potential will imapct on us months later. We knew about the Kent variant in October. It was a couple of months later when it began to sweep the UK.

We need to learn. Until we understand something the best course of action is conservatism and caution. What I am hearing this morning implies that we will be content with a growing epidemic as long as hospitaloisation doesn't rise. But if you find we have a problem with UK variant no 2 it will be too late. Better to keep a cap on it until we know its potential.

 

[Nightmare Walking]

My answer to that would be that that is an almost certainty. Hospital admissions will drop. What we should do is vast amounts of genomic testing and get to grips not with the the prevalence of the Kent variant (that is doomed) but what is the R rate of the variants. Are they growing? What type of illness can they cause in vaccinated people and what is the threat posed by future mutations in those variants. The short term prognosis is good but no one seems to have a good handle on the threat posed by variant strains. I am not forecasting doom, I am suggesting we avoid a growing epidemic to mitigate risk whilst uncertainty exists.

What the experts are now telling us is that we should shift focus from the new cases to hospitalisations but I would say we need to watch and understand what is happening to the virus now. What happens to it now, and its potential will imapct on us months later. We knew about the Kent variant in October. It was a couple of months later when it began to sweep the UK.

We need to learn. Until we understand something the best course of action is conservatism and caution. What I am hearing this morning implies that we will be content with a growing epidemic as long as hospitaloisation doesn't rise. But if you find we have a problem with UK variant no 2 it will be too late. Better to keep a cap on it until we know its potential.

I will guarantee this. Once it gets warmer and the sun comes out, no one will pay attention to any restrictions or lockdown. People have had enough now.

 

[HolisticJim]

Great post, I've posted before on this, my Dad is 88, lives on his own, mentally sharp, does about 2 hours a day of the Express puzzles, physically ok for his age but without me, Mrs H and my sister I'm convinced he wouldn't have got through this. Late last year he said he thought Christmas 2020 would be his last one, he's never suffered from any mental illness but I detected an element of despair. I see him everyday, I'm effectively his carer. I dread to think how people completely on their own cope, no interaction with friends at their local pub, club, bingo, cafe or the like. End of lockdown can't come quick enough.

I split up with my partner during the last lockdown and moved into another house as restrictions were lifted. Been living on my own with no contact from anyone since Sep.
I work from home too so no relief there. Its been rubbish.

But you know, I'm alive, I don't have covid and I'm employed. I don't have to worry about money.
I look at sky news and see the people heading to the food banks to feed their families, some of them feeling shamed for doing so.
It kinda reminds me that however it hard it gets - and like most I've struggled a fair bit at times - there's always someone worse off and I could be them.
It forces me to wear a smile when possible, blast out some music, laugh at TV shows and love City.

I'm fairly optimistic that we're finally over the worst. I'm sure there will be peaks and trophes again but I genuinely do think life is about to start getting better.

The pubs are getting ready to open! Ooo rar!!

 

[Cityfan]

What do you think natural immunity is? The immune response is highly specific.

Not really true, there are two sides to the immune response, adaptive and innate.
The innate response also known as natural immunity is non specific.

 

[west didsblue]

Yes but my concern is that if the virus is allowed to replicate unchecked the nature of the illness may become more serious because the virus starts to evade certain neutralising antibody reactions.

What new have we learned about the virus in the last 3-4 months? I have learned that it has mutated to a much greater extent than we were led to believe. That suggests to me that we should be cautious about the variants and their potential. One of the governments own tests for reopening was that we should assess the risk posed by variants but dropping the focus on the R rate or new cases seems to me to go against that.

I get the impression that the mutations are primarily spike related which may affect the transmissibility but not necessarily the seriousness of any illness. The vaccines are multi faceted in that they both prevent infection but also reduce the seriousness through a different mechanism, so if a virus mutates to a point that it gets past the "prevent infection" aspect of the vaccine it should still have less impact than it would on someone not vaccinated. I know that this is not yet proven for all variants but initial signs are encouraging as far as I can gather.

 

[cleavers]

I dont know if lockdown has been followed stricter this last few months. I would guess not. But I was getting very scared of working in and around the town, with so many people ignoring lockdown.

If so many people have ignored the rules, can you explain how we have gone from 70,000 cases per day, to just 5,000 cases ? The ONLY reason for that is people following the rules, yes there are idiots, but the vast majority are doing/have done the right thing.

It's not vaccinations either, I know of someone who was vaccinated with both jabs by early January, yet she caught covid late Feb and has since passed away in hospital, she caught it in hospital after a previous few days there for something else, she was allowed home then tested positive having not been out otherwise.

 

[Healdplace]

Wales data:

0 deaths (Sunday reporting caveat) - was 3 last week.

164 cases - was 193 last week

This is the lowest cases number for 6 months.

1.8% positivity - was 2.2

Weekly Pop score 45 - down from 46 yesterday and 67 last week

 

[hammocity]

I split up with my partner during the last lockdown and moved into another house as restrictions were lifted. Been living on my own with no contact from anyone since Sep.
I work from home too so no relief there. Its been rubbish.

But you know, I'm alive, I don't have covid and I'm employed. I don't have to worry about money.
I look at sky news and see the people heading to the food banks to feed their families, some of them feeling shamed for doing so.
It kinda reminds me that however it hard it gets - and like most I've struggled a fair bit at times - there's always someone worse off and I could be them.
It forces me to wear a smile when possible, blast out some music, laugh at TV shows and love City.

I'm fairly optimistic that we're finally over the worst. I'm sure there will be peaks and trophes again but I genuinely do think life is about to start getting better.

The pubs are getting ready to open! Ooo rar!!

Great attitude Jim, you obviously handle it well but it can't be easy, the pub culture in this country is so important for people to connect, chat and enjoy. On a Monday I meet my work colleague, other friends who are employed and usually two/three retirees, ages mid 50's to mid 70's, god how I miss those times, can't wait. There's a couple of dippers who come in on a Monday as well, Covid has deprived me of ripping those two big time.

 

[Healdplace]

Scotland data:

1 death - was 0 last week

501 cases - was 386 last week

5.0% positivity - was 4.5% last week

138 Greater Glasgow, 99 Lanarkshire. 67 Lothian

654 patients (UP 26 in day) - was 824 last week

59 ventilated (down 2 in day) - was 71 last week


This is the first day in a while where nearly all the numbers have gone in the wrong direction week to week.

Though Monday hospital data often shows an increase and it will be no surprise of England does later too.

In mitigation in Scotland it was noted that Glasgow hospitals have aligned the way they defined a covid patient based on testing to bring it into alignment with the rest of the UK. They now do not insist on their own in hospital test but accept Lighthouse Labs external tests to classify as a Covid case too. The other Scottish health boards were already doing this.

 

[inbetween]

It's probably inevitable that cases will actually go up now that schools are opening and when other businesses open, but as long as the death toll keeps dropping that's as good as it's going to get.

This is perhaps why the cautious reopening plan is a good approach but I don't think a big case rise will happen.

We saw a very low uptick in cases after lockdown 1 last year so there is definitely some seasonal aspect to this virus which suggests a rapid increase in cases probably won't happen. It took 5 months to go from around 1,000 cases in May to 10,000 in October last year despite pretty much everything being open by the start of July.

Hopefully by the time cases begin to increase the vast majority of remaining unvaccinated people will be done (end of May) so the effect will flatten. Once that happens there is no reason to not reopen everything on the understanding that less cases will be reported because no-one should be getting ill enough to present for testing.

 

[blue b4 the moon]

Scotland data:

1 death - was 0 last week

501 cases - was 386 last week

5.0% positivity - was 4.5% last week

138 Greater Glasgow, 99 Lanarkshire. 67 Lothian

654 patients (UP 26 in day) - was 824 last week

59 ventilated (down 2 in day) - was 71 last week


This is the first day in a while where nearly all the numbers have gone in the wrong direction week to week.

Though Monday hospital data often shows an increase and it will be no surprise of England does later too.

In mitigation in Scotland it was noted that Glasgow hospitals have aligned the way they defined a covid patient based on testing to bring it into alignment with the rest of the UK. They now do not insist on their own in hospital test but accept Lighthouse Labs external tests to classify as a Covid case too.

Could this be linked to school returning?

I think the youngest kids went back a couple of weeks ago & there's been some 'phased' older ones going back since.

I'm sure our Scottish posters could confirm dates etc.

 

[Healdplace]

Wales vaccination data:

998, 296 first doses given - 3237 yesterday - was 11, 640 day before & 2054 last week

183, 739 second doses given - 6685 yesterday - was 7891 day before & 7411 last week

 

[Tim of the Oak]

Could this be linked to school returning?

I think the youngest kids went back a couple of weeks ago & there's been some 'phased' older ones going back since.

I'm sure our Scottish posters could confirm dates etc.

Maybe it’s more to do with last weekend’s lockdown “ceasefire” when large groups gathered in parks to enjoy the sunny weather?

 

[blue b4 the moon]

Maybe it’s more to do with last weekend’s lockdown “ceasefire” when large groups gathered in parks to enjoy the sunny weather?

Yeah could be a factor but like schools we keep getting told that last summers beach days didn't cause an affect on the figures.

 

[Magicpole]

Glasgow had a potential super spreader event last night, when our city rivals turned out to celebrate in George Sq. We will need to wait and see if it has an impact on how the numbers go.

 

[Healdplace]

Scotland vaccination data:

1, 774, 659 first doses given - 14, 909 yesterday - was 15, 881 day before & 17, 883 last week

118, 732 second doses given - 2802 yesterday - was 1849 day before & 2353 last week

The briefing referred to the low vaccine supply which will impact all this week but that from next week on they hope to ramp up significantly.

96% of all 65 - 69 year olds vaccinated

42% of all 60 - 64 year olds vaccinated

35% of all 55 - 59 year olds vaccinated

29% of all 50 - 54 year olds vaccinated

 

[Healdplace]

Zoe app today predicts 6242 cases (648 down on yesterday's prediction).

That one was 1500 above actual cases tested as it turned out.

It has been around 1000 up most days.

Guess we will see later.

Zoe App is from hundreds of thousands of people with symptoms reporting direct to them. With or without a test.

So a different measure but you would expect some similarities.

 

[M18CTID]

Zoe app today predicts 6242 cases (648 down on yesterday's prediction).

That one was 1500 above actual cases tested as it turned out.

It has been around 1000 up most days.

Guess we will see later.

Zoe App is from hundreds of thousands of people with symptoms reporting direct to them. With or without a test.

So a different measure but you would expect some similarities.

Could be a sub-5000 case number then which would be the first time in how long?

 

[give it to gordon]

If so many people have ignored the rules, can you explain how we have gone from 70,000 cases per day, to just 5,000 cases ? The ONLY reason for that is people following the rules, yes there are idiots, but the vast majority are doing/have done the right thing.

It's not vaccinations either, I know of someone who was vaccinated with both jabs by early January, yet she caught covid late Feb and has since passed away in hospital, she caught it in hospital after a previous few days there for something else, she was allowed home then tested positive having not been out otherwise.

I guess the amount I saw ever day is only a small % of the population. But we were seeing the same people out and about every day, the shops were closed but 'open' you just knocked on their doors and the shop keeper brings it !.

In the last month my area has been the highest weekly area in kent twice.

I wasnt saying people all over the uk were ignoring lockdown only from what I was seeing in and around Ramsgate. Like I say the fact that thanet has twice been the highest place in kent in the last few weeks. Something seems out of tilt with the rest of kent and England.