Coronavirus (2021) thread

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twosips said:


Blimey! 73% down on last week's deaths.
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I know Mondays are a low reporting date for deaths but that's an incredible drop compared to last Monday. Case numbers aren't really escalating too much either, despite this being the start of week 3 of schools being back open. This is surely the "vaccine effect" taking over from "lockdown effect" and becoming an ever increasing influence on the figures.
 
shemnel said:
bit more detail on lateral flow testing;

"Assuming that the Innova test performs at least as well as it did in the Liverpool evaluation of mass testing (sensitivity 40.0% and specificity 99.9% [5]), at a population prevalence of infection of 0.47% (REACT study 13 to 22 Feb [7]), one in three positive LFD results will be false positives (positive predictive value 65%) and three out of every five true cases of covid-19 infection will be missed."

www.bmj.com

What do we know about lateral flow tests and mass testing in schools?

The UK government has made mass testing a key plank of its strategy to reopen schools in England. Ingrid Torjesen reviews the questions and concerns over this approach Schoolchildren across England returned to their classrooms from 8 March, but secondary school pupils must wear face coverings...
www.bmj.com www.bmj.com

blogs.bmj.com

Do we have informed consent for asymptomatic covid-19 testing in schools? - The BMJ

Jac Dinnes and Clare Davenport look at the rollout of the mass testing regime in English schools The new, voluntary, but “strongly encouraged,” asymptomatic mass testing regime using lateral flow [...]More...
blogs.bmj.com
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Im pretty sure this poor test is which is being carried out in schools is resulting in the cases not dropping.
 
Healdplace said:
17 all settings deaths

5342 cases up just 30 on yesterday

But 1.4 million EXTRA tests since yesterday today to find 30 more cases

nearly 2 million tests today
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in today's cases, there were 1,914 LFD tests positive reported from Sunday 21st in England, by far the largest amount from that source yet. Which means there'll either be a bit of a cases increase this week or the PCR positives are going to crash and the line stay flat. I think the former. fair warning folks, probably a case increase by specimen date (which we wont know until next week probably!!).

1616430137107.png
 
Friday Tests 1, 410, 295 v 4802 cases

Saturday Tests 907, 531 v 5587 cases

Sunday Tests 446, 680 v 5312 cases

Monday Tests 1, 868, 835 v 5342 cases Today

So 30 cases more from an extra 1, 422, 155 pillar 1 & 2 tests today.

Not even going to bother to create a meaningful positivity number out of that!
 
True_Blue69 said:
Need to be bringing our exit strategy forward. Schools going back was what everyone was concerned about and it’s not even made a ripple. Every vulnerable person has now been offered a vaccine let’s get things moving.
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No! Christ man, I know you love banging this drum but chill out, no point rushing now.
 
Regional Summary:

SOUTH

East up 128 to 460

London up 108 to 480

South East up 110 to 522

South West up 74 to 263


So all the southern regions up a bit today


MIDLANDS

East down 55 to 564

West down 24 to 516



Modest falls here.



NORTH

North East down 18 to 214 - lowest here in many months and lowest region today

Yorkshire Up 40 to 851

And

North West down 8 to 886

So North West again the highest region but the gap is reduced quite a bit with Yorkshire
 
Healdplace said:
But dying of Covid is often different from dying with Covid. I expect particularly at 95. As unhappily I know from within my own family.
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Yes, I don't know the full details of the death, all I know is the person was, in hospital, then out (not covid related), then ill, tested positive at home, then hospitalised, then died. The death could be "with" or "of", but as it's not related to me, other than my parents live in the same retirement property, I haven't enquired.

It's sad because that is the first case they've had in the whole pandemic in a block of nearly 50 apartments, and the person had had both jabs weeks before the case, and if they hadn't had to go to hospital, might still be alive.

One thing is clear though, and that is that you can still catch covid after both jabs, and get ill enough to be hospitalised, and die, so it is a bit of a myth.
 
True_Blue69 said:
Need to be bringing our exit strategy forward. Schools going back was what everyone was concerned about and it’s not even made a ripple. Every vulnerable person has now been offered a vaccine let’s get things moving.
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Open Everyman Cinema in Barnet. I want to see Scarlet Johansen in tight leather trousers (Black Widow).
 
Healdplace said:
Friday Tests 1, 410, 295 v 4802 cases

Saturday Tests 907, 531 v 5587 cases

Sunday Tests 446, 680 v 5312 cases

Monday Tests 1, 868, 835 v 5342 cases Today

So 30 cases more from an extra 1, 422, 155 pillar 1 & 2 tests today.

Not even going to bother to create a meaningful positivity number out of that!
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What's worrying is that under half million tests on Sunday found a similar amount of positive case that 1.8 million did. That's either the case that most of the 1.8m tests are useless or incorrectly done or Sunday was a weird anomaly. I wish we had an age breakdown of who tested positive. Is it mainly under 30's who are catching it, most over 50's have had on jab and would hopefully be less susceptible to catching the virus. Just hope that people are still isolating if positive as that message seems to have been diluted recently and almost forgotten
 
Greater Manchester summary:

Better day here today.

Though up and down in some ways:

402 cases - down 90 from yesterday and obviously a lot more than the NW fell by today.

So the % of GM in the North West fell hugely from 55.0% to 45.4% in the day. The biggest fall I can remember.

However, that 402 is versus 336 last Monday - so it is up a fair bit again week to week:-



Manchester had exactly the same cases as yesterday - 83 - which is well up week to week (by 31)

Bolton in second at 61 - up 12 on day and 25 week to week - so like Manchester sadly big weekly Pop rise here.

Wigan next at 57 - also up 12 in day but only 2 weel to week - so minimal change in the weekly pop

Tameside in fourth at 44 - down 12 in the day but up 15 week to week unfortunately

Stockport follow at 35 - down 15 in the day and down 1 week to week - do no damage here

Rochdale are at 33 - a 26 fall on the day but a rise of 3 week to week

Salford has 32 - down 13 day to day and 8 week to week - so a nice Pop Score fall too

Oldham clocks up 29 - a daily fall of 14 but a week to week rise of 7 unfortunately.

Bury is second best but at 21 falls 15 from yesterday - though again up - by 5 - on last week

Trafford - who else - tops the tree with another great score - third single number in past 10 days - with just 7 - and down 11 week to week.

Trafford has had 93 cases in the past 7 days. Way ahead.

Other weekly case totals are:

Bury 191 Bolton 328 Manchester 507 Oldham 249 Rochdale 236 Salford 291 Stockport 247

Tameside 288 Wigan 340
 
Eds said:
What's worrying is that under half million tests on Sunday found a similar amount of positive case that 1.8 million did. That's either the case that most of the 1.8m tests are useless or incorrectly done or Sunday was a weird anomaly. I wish we had an age breakdown of who tested positive. Is it mainly under 30's who are catching it, most over 50's have had on jab and would hopefully be less susceptible to catching the virus. Just hope that people are still isolating if positive as that message seems to have been diluted recently and almost forgotten
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Here are the last 7 days testing positive numbers for N Ireland who break it down by ages

0 - 19 (193) 18.4%

20 - 39 (422) 40.2%

40 - 59 (295) 28.1%

60 - 79 (109) 10.4%

80 PLUS (30) 2.9%


That upper two age range percentages have been falling and was double that level pre the vaccination programme.
 
Unfortunately, there is also some slightly bad news from the hospital data today.

After seeing the small rises in the other nations in the patient numbers I was expecting we might see this in England.

And we do. However, only by 9 to 4501. And ventilators fall by 16 to 676.

The bad news though is that North West bore the brunt of things today.

Whilst London fell both in patients and ventilators today North West was the only region to rise in both measures.

Patients up 21 to 787 and ventilators up 4 to 86. Last week it fell on Monday in both measures.

Hopefully this is just a blip and tomorrow will see the downward trend return.

Last week for comparison England patients fell by 63 and ventilators 33. And NW fell by 10 and 4 respectively.
 
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