Coronavirus (2021) thread

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The Light Was Yellow Sir said:
Given the huge relevance of age and pre-existing medical conditions, I think the best strategy might well be offering the vaccine to all the worlds ‘vulnerable’ and not bothering with the under 50’s. Effectively the U.K. would be less than 2 months away from fully vaccinating that group and Europe and the rest could quite easily catch up. Cant see any point whatsoever in vaccinating young healthy people against a disease which poses such a tiny relative risk and using the threat of a vaccine passport is shamefully coercive.
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Sadly 2.6% of Covid-19 deaths have been under the age of 50 and Long Covid effects on the under 50s are dramatically higher than in older people (they die rather than survive with problems) 55% have symptoms beyond 8 weeks. 15% of those hospitalised are readmitted to hospital within 5 months for related issues and large numbers are developing diabetes (no body is putting exact figures on this but it is tens of thousands).
Worst of all, high rates of infection on younger people trigger case in older people.
 
Tim of the Oak said:
I think it’s a specific type of a rate blood clot that the fuss is about, rather than the overall number of of peole with blood clots.
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It is. The funny thing is, in their figures, the overall chance of a clot goes down, but the overall chance of a specific type of clot, the CVT clot goes up.
 
BlueAnorak said:
But we haven't been stringent at all where it counts.
- Food shopping.
- isolation after testing positive.
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The post was intended just to inform on the point of how severe our lockdown has been, not if it has been done well or not.

I would be astonished if food shopping has had a big impact on transmission. Most people simply don't spend enough time in food shops, and most food shops (all I've been in - a very small sample) seem to be at least reasonably COVID secure.

Isolation after testing positive - absolutely - this is a huge gap and alongside workplace safety the two biggies where we haven't really done anything much beyond asking people to do the right thing. Support, monitoring and enforcement entirely absent on both.

Nevertheless, the current lockdown has undoubtably had a huge impact on the disease - until very recently almost certainly much more than the vaccine.
 
roypaulknewmyfather said:
I really believe there's an element of Corporate Sabotage involved.
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It's fascinating that you both believe this *and* openly state you have no evidence for it!

(The idea that German drug safety evaluation is biased to favour more expensive treatments is really, really hard to find any rational motivation for)
 
MillionMilesAway said:
It does seem strange that it's not been identified here, but who knows why - interaction with drugs only used in Germany? demographic being affected that hasn't been vaccinated here?
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On your second point I do wonder if our distribution of the various vaccines have been different across the age ranges. Ie perhaps those in the top priority groups such as elderly and health care workers both young and old have largely been vaccinated with Pfizer, with AZ yet to really reach those including women of a certain younger age bracket where this is being identified elsewhere as a problem. For us it may yet be encountered later down the line.

As far as I can see this is more of a reshuffle of how the vaccine is distributed in Germany meantime, particularly whilst further investigation is carried out. It could be that they decide that men under 55 are fine to receive it and things are reshuffled again.
 
Tim of the Oak said:
Are we clear whether researchers in Germany and Norway are “sure” of a link between the AZ / Oxford jab and blood clots in young and middle aged women or if this is precaution.
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Sorry, I may have been unintentionally misleading in the wording of my post. I think (and stand to be corrected) researchers in those countries have put forward a direct causation, and meantime their research is being investigated by relevant authorities. Germany have made the decision to suspend the roll out to that particular age demographic whilst this is ongoing.
 
BlueAnorak said:
It is. The funny thing is, in their figures, the overall chance of a clot goes down, but the overall chance of a specific type of clot, the CVT clot goes up.
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It would be good to know why in case it’s the possibilities MillionMilesAway mentioned, including the nature of the birth control pill or how vaccine recipients have been prioritised in Germany or Norway. It could just be flawed research of course.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
The post was intended just to inform on the point of how severe our lockdown has been, not if it has been done well or not.

I would be astonished if food shopping has had a big impact on transmission. Most people simply don't spend enough time in food shops, and most food shops (all I've been in - a very small sample) seem to be at least reasonably COVID secure.

Isolation after testing positive - absolutely - this is a huge gap and alongside workplace safety the two biggies where we haven't really done anything much beyond asking people to do the right thing. Support, monitoring and enforcement entirely absent on both.

Nevertheless, the current lockdown has undoubtably had a huge impact on the disease - until very recently almost certainly much more than the vaccine.
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Well food shopping is top of the pile as the main infection activity in the weekly PHE test and trace survey data. As it is every week. https://assets.publishing.service.g...-19_and_Influenza_Surveillance_Graphs_W12.pdf
 
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From Covid-19...
653 people died in Poland yesterday.
529 people died in Italy the day before that,
as did 348 people in France.
Up to 500 germans a day are estimated as going to die in Germany by the end of April (Kosh institute prediction
www.reuters.com

German COVID cases could revisit December peak in April

German health experts warned on Saturday against any further easing of coronavirus lockdown measures as the number of cases jumped again, raising the possibility that infections could again reach peaks seen around Christmas by mid-April.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
)
So while the politicians fiddle the new variant wave catches hold.

Absolute idiots.
 
ayrshire_blue said:
Sorry, I may have been unintentionally misleading in the wording of my post. I think (and stand to be corrected) researchers in those countries have put forward a direct causation, and meantime their research is being investigated by relevant authorities. Germany have made the decision to suspend the roll out to that particular age demographic whilst this is ongoing.
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You would think that would quietly tell the relatively small at risk group to get the Pfizer jab instead rather than scaring most of the population.
 
west didsblue said:
You would think that would quietly tell the relatively small at risk group to get the Pfizer jab instead rather than scaring most of the population.
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They are only publishing the numbers from what's happening in front if them and their decisions based on those numbers. I don't see it as scaring most of the population at all but I suppose that's a matter of how you interpret these sort of decisions.
 
Interesting replies on the German reaction to the AZ issues.

I have an interest in this that likely most of you in here - if not all of you - probably do not - having been on HRT for a few years and having this regularly reviewed in visits with my GP (well when I could actually go see her at least) to assess the risk/benefit equation based on the various studies that are done to judge for similar thrombosis and undoubtedly real threats.

What has not ever happened here is some instant reaction to stop use and effectively destroy any likelihood that even if proven safe many will risk taking it. Especially as for two different reasons AZ has been denied both the over 65s (now allowed) and the under 65s (now not) which must have created record low level of trust not just in this vaccine but in all of them.

I certainly do not disagree with caution and I do not think this is some attempt at revenge over AZ. But I do see it as very badly handled as it has been a stop start argument played out in public that has sapped confidence not just in Germany but must be having an effect on people here. Indeed we know it was because weeks ago we had people in here trying to play the system to get the Pfizer jab instead.

And the AZ vaccine is of most importance beyond the UK in poorer countries where it is currently the best option from cost and administration to remote areas. And it is there where this erosion could have the mot tragic consequence.

Of course, safety is paramount and I fear the UK government are going to have to say something here as this story must be sapping confidence from some due the second jab. Needlessly as all that has been said in here is right about this being likely irrelevant to nearly all who have had AZ in the UK so far as relatively few will be yoiung women in the same age range as the ones being of concern.

Though NHS nurses will surely have been monitored closely and have many who fit the profile. So there must be data on that specific cohort that should have flagged this up by now if it were there in UK Data.

Someone is going to have to come out and say something here as a couple of people I know have told me because of this they are going to turn down the second jab 'unless it is the other one now'. I have told them they probably cannot do that - as in choose - especially having had AZ up front. And they are not in the age cohort impacted in Germany but did not understand that.

My concern is over the way the messaging has been handled with this hokey cokey of not safe - it is safe - oh hang on maybe not. You cannot do that publicly without eroding trust in the product to a big degree.
 
ayrshire_blue said:
They are only publishing the numbers from what's happening in front if them and their decisions based on those numbers. I don't see it as scaring most of the population at all but I suppose that's a matter of how you interpret these sort of decisions.
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As @Healdplace has said above, it's been handled appallingly if people are being put off having it.
 
Healdplace said:
My concern is over the way the messaging has been handled with this hokey cokey of not safe =- it is safe - oh hang on maybe not. You cannot do that publicly without eroding trust in the product in a big degree.
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In a way though, isn't there an inevitability that something of this like would happen, given that we've never vaccinated on this scale something which wasn't even in production just over a year ago? It's all happened very quickly, and good thing because it needed to, but now when things are playing out in the real world there will be these small bumps along the way. Something which in normal circumstances would all be investigated prior to any mass rollout and answers could be given, but meantime such is the acceleration required here that's not been possible?

If they're finding a causation, it could do more harm than good to continuing the roll out with a 'nothing to see here' attitude (I know that's not what you're suggesting btw), when questions have to be answered at an inquiry when this is said and done. As I say, they'd have a difficult job gaining public trust for anything else which comes after that.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
So WTF is your point about flu?
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Indaparkside said:
As well as getting on people’s nerves
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So a quick run down off Covid, Britain had nearly a month to see the affects of Covid on Europe before it hit, some lessons it learnt shutting down places of worship helped, shutting down access to GP`s for NHS patients killed large numbers, no numbers were counted initially for COVID deaths at care homes,masks were not available.
The first stage of shut down came, the Government came out with it`s propaganda, `Stop and Prevent` which it could not do, the Nightingale centers opened The government reopened places of Education the week after they shut the unused Nightingale centers, unused because while they could care for Covid patients, they could not cater for the other ailments that they all had, the students from all over the world, came they bought their pizzas their booze and had a party Covid spiked, about then the chemical companies announced they were days away from a vaccine, this may be the reason why the Government did not take up the chance to get Britain back when the death numbers dwindled, so we headed into Flu season and the death rate rose again, the Covid vaccine came after some White males were found to be immune , it had a 15% rejection rate a 92%-96% effectiveness rate and a problem with blocking aeries , the government lied in denying this, a bit bizarre as this was the way the vaccine worked, the leading health authorities said the drug was worth the risk, the question is, the risk to who?
You do not need to read the above it is only an abbreviated list of Propaganda and censorship.
So how does the Flu fit in? right from the start it was obvious the Covid followed a similar contagion methods as the Flu, it killed and restricted in the same way, and has the same seasons Covid has killed 127,000 were as the Flu kills on average over 11,000, in February that figure for last year was 0, just another lie, but the biggest point about the Flu is the data it has given us, the people at risk are the same, we do not vaccine the entire population for the Flu even though it is just as infectious, the big difference is in 1918 the Flu pandemic killed between 17- 100 million they could not count all the bodies, they also learnt that face coverings were responsible for a large number of deaths, Covid 2.79 million so Covid currently 127,000 the Flu on average 11,000 seems a better risk but that is 11,000 after vaccination. The Flu has taught us almost everything we know about Covid especially who should be vaccinated and what happens when you vaccinate the entire population.
 
ayrshire_blue said:
In a way though, isn't there an inevitability that something of this like would happen, given that we've never vaccinated on this scale something which wasn't even in production just over a year ago? It's all happened very quickly, and good thing because it needed to, but now when things are playing out in the real world there will be these small bumps along the way. Something which in normal circumstances would all be investigated prior to any mass rollout and answers could be given, but meantime such is the acceleration required here that's not been possible?

If they're finding a causation, it could do more harm than good to continuing the roll out with a 'nothing to see here' attitude (I know that's not what you're suggesting btw), when questions have to be answered at an inquiry when this is said and done. As I say, they'd have a difficult job gaining public trust for anything else which comes after that.
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My concern is not at all over the risk or the need to investigate. Both are interlinked and necessary. But over the way the messaging has been applied - in just about the worst possible way. It is a PR disaster not just for AZ but for all vaccines - something enough people already are wary of having.

And the stop/start messaging which has changed about 4 times already and where WHO and these national drug agencies are both in agreement or disagreement depending on the nation concerned has got to be eroding trust in vaccination in general just at the point this is most critical.

For me the biggest single issue here is that this has become a battle of multiple vaccines creating an impression of a choice. You cannot do that in a pandemic because if you create a perception of hierarchy over which one to 'choose' you create a 'worst' one. Whereas it is not a choice to try to end this pandemic. It is a global necessity.

We do not 'market' brands of flu jab every winter. You get THE jab with zero knowledge who made it and trust that the authorities regulated it etc.

Will we now be having multiple flu vaccines named with people put off having them because they cannot get the better one that they have read about? Hopefully not as that would be a disaster.

Really all these drug companies could have and should have and maybe now ought to come together and agree to market it as THE Covid Jab whoever makes it.

Up to now most people had zero interest in or clue about who made the flu jab they have or qny other jab to be honest. Because they trusted the system and it was a jab to deter the disease and that was all that really mattered,

This global vaccine war driven by commercial factors could tip that on end and create ongoing issues for whenever major vaccination programmes are needed for various things.

We should not be asking who made this? Is it safe? Once we start doing that numbers will fall and deaths from all diseases will rise.
 
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