Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Invisible Man's Bandage said:
Was just about to post the exact same thing. The numbers now are so low that you are looking at people with serious/terminal illnesses who happen to have Covid dying within 28 days of being tested. It probably hasn't happened yet but it also could include someone being hit by a bus, for example.
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There is no reason why someone testing positive now should be more likely to be run over by a bus within 28 days than they were before.

There is no reason why someone with a terminal illness should be more likely to die within 28 days of a COVID test than they were before.

It doesn't matter if 1,000 people or 1,000,000 test positive on a given day, the same proportion will die of other causes within 28 days. So the same proportion of deaths are wrongly allocated to COVID.

Equally, the same proportion of people testing positive will survive beyond 28 days, but still die of COVID and be wrongly ascribed as not a COVID death.

This is, and always has been a total red herring.
 
Greater Manchester Cases


157 cases today - down 6 on yesterday - little under par for NW fall of 22 to 278 today. By about 5!

This is UP by just 1 week to week from 156.

At these low numbers the odd case has a magnified impact that is meaningless really.


Manchester top scores on 49 - up 14 on day and 18 week to week. Not a good day for the city. Drove the numbers today and all the other boroughs well below it. Remarkably a list headed by.....

Trafford stays on 16 on the day and up 5 wk to wk. Lost the most Pop Score points to Stockport for some time.

Wigan next on 14 - down 4 on the day but up 3 wk to wk

Bolton also on 14 which is down 1 on the day and 6 on last week. Good day here.

Salford down 7 on the day to 13 which is up 3 from last wk.

Oldham down 7 too on the day to 12 though a huge drop of 16 on last week will boost Pop Score.

Rochdale down 2 to 11 rises 10 but falling 6 week to week.

Tameside up 2 also on 11 on the day which is down 3 from last week.

Bury - not top today - on 10 doubling from 5 - up 4 on the day but up just 1 from last week


And only one borough in single figures today:


Stockport - on 7 is down 6 on the day but up 2 week to week. Even so caught up 5 overall Pop Score points on Trafford (the gap is now 'just' 183 - but it has very slowly inched down in past 2 weeks).

.

9 of the 10 boroughs split by just 9 cases today!

8 of the 10 boroughs sub 100 in weekly cases now and split by just 35. Big improvement.


Weekly cases:-

Bury 55, Trafford 65, Wigan 77, Rochdale 77. Tameside 78, Stockport 82. Salford 88, Oldham 90, Bolton 139, Manchester 289.
 
peace frog said:
We will continue to have problems with this if they don't ban flights, red list countries do not work, I have seen evidence of this first hand, people just transfer at none red list countries and back into our country, the amount of baggage we take off German flights has gone up a lot,

Stop inbound passengers, stop corona, so simple, we should of done this right away
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I think I'm right in saying that any arrivals from a red list country have to have spent a minimum of 10 days in a non-red list country before arrival into the UK to avoid the hotel quarantine?

I don't think someone can just go 'red list country - Germany - UK' in 1/2 days and dodge the rules.

Just like if someone went 'green list country - Dubai - UK' then they'd be required to hotel quarantine even though they only transited a red list country on their way back.
 
feedthegoat27 said:
I think I'm right in saying that any arrivals from a red list country have to have spent a minimum of 10 days in a non-red list country before arrival into the UK to avoid the hotel quarantine?

I don't think someone can just go 'red list country - Germany - UK' in 1/2 days and dodge the rules.

Just like if someone went 'green list country - Dubai - UK' then they'd be required to hotel quarantine even though they only transited a red list country on their way back.
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When dubai was red the first time I can promise the German flights were full of Emirates bags
 
peace frog said:
When dubai was red the first time I can promise the German flights were full of Emirates bags
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Yeah I'm not doubting you or anything haha

Dubai is still red list now....if I flew back to the UK from Dubai then I'd have to hotel quarantine on arrival.
If I flew Dubai to Frankfurt, then connected onto a flight from there then I'd still have to hotel quarantine unless I spent 10 days in Germany before heading back to the UK.

So either the rules aren't being enforced or people are breaking up their journey from a red list country for 10 days to then avoid the hotel quarantine.....I'm thinking the former is more likely than the latter.
 
HOSPITAL DATA

Summary:



A modest fall in England patients today but up week to week - 45 versus 41 last week - to under 1500 in hospital in England now.

The fall in ventilators was 16.

And the UK now has under 1800 in hospital with Covid and under 250 on ventilators.


In the England regions only modest falls and a few up - though there are under 250 in hospital in every region bar London and Midlands now. And Midlands is single figures away.

And North West now under 30 on ventilators in the region. Down from 64 to 28 in 3 weeks.

The NW was last lower in patients on 13 September - ahead of the national picture. They were last lower on ventilators on 15 September - also ahead of the national numbers.




UK total:


Patients down to 1736 - it was 39, 248 at the peak on 18 Jan - (fall of 37, 512 in 95 days) :- lowest since 23 September

Ventilators down to 243 it was 4077 at the peak on 24 Jan - (fall of 3834 in 89 days) : lowest since 24 September


England only:-


ADMISSIONS:-

126 Covid admissions (16 April) following 98, 138, 112, 135, 148, 127. 156 in the week before.



PATIENTS:-

Patients down by 45 to 1478 v 1844 last week :- lowest since 23 September

Peak was 34, 336 on 18 Jan (fall 32, 858 in 95 days)

Ventilators: down 16 to 221 v 298 last week :- lowest since 24 September

Peak was 3736 on 24 Jan (fall 3515 in 89 days)



Regions:


Patient // Ventilators // change in past day to today and v last week


East down 8 to 162 v 182 // UP 2 to 18 v 18

London down 5 to 418 v 501 // down 5 to 91 v 105

Midlands down 16 to 259 v 339 // UP 1 to 48 v 62

NE & Yorks down 21 to 222 v 314 // down 3 to 32 v 49

North West down 7 to 229 v 309 // down 2 to 28 v 41

South East UP 6 to 116 v 123 // down 3 to 10 v 13

South West UP 6 to 72 v 76 // down 1 to 4 v 10
 
GM Weekly Pop Data after today:~

Borough / Pop Today / 7 days ago / up or down wk to wk/ Testing is % of local population who have tested positive for Covid over past year.

As ever with Pop going up is bad, going down good - the higher the number the better or worse depending on direction moving. The Pop is total cases in past week versus 100,000 POPulation to even out the comparison versus size and expected cases based on numbers living there.


Manchester 53/ 52/ UP 1 Testing positive 9.6%

Bolton 48 / 42 / UP 6 Testing positive 9.1%

Oldham 38 / 61 DOWN 23 Testing positive 9.7%

Rochdale 35 / 53 / DOWN 18 Testing positive 9.6%

Tameside 34 / 35 DOWN 1 Testing positive 8.1%

Salford 34 / 35 / DOWN 1 Testing positive 9.0%

Bury 29 / 29 / LEVEL Testing positive 9.0%

Stockport 28 / 31 / DOWN 3 Testing positive 7.1%

Trafford 27 / 37 / DOWN 10 Testing positive 7.0 %

Wigan 23 / 42 / DOWN 19 Testing positive 8.8%


Big changes week to week today with almost every one falling in past 7 days or level and just Bolton up slightly.
 
Healdplace said:
GM Weekly Pop Data after today:~

Borough / Pop Today / 7 days ago / up or down wk to wk/ Testing is % of local population who have tested positive for Covid over past year.

As ever with Pop going up is bad, going down good - the higher the number the better or worse depending on direction moving. The Pop is total cases in past week versus 100,000 POPulation to even out the comparison versus size and expected cases based on numbers living there.


Manchester 53/ 52/ UP 1 Testing positive 9.6%

Bolton 48 / 42 / UP 6 Testing positive 9.1%

Oldham 38 / 61 DOWN 23 Testing positive 9.7%

Rochdale 35 / 53 / DOWN 18 Testing positive 9.6%

Tameside 34 / 35 DOWN 1 Testing positive 8.1%

Salford 34 / 35 / DOWN 1 Testing positive 9.0%

Bury 29 / 29 / LEVEL Testing positive 9.0%

Stockport 28 / 31 / DOWN 3 Testing positive 7.1%

Trafford 27 / 37 / DOWN 10 Testing positive 7.0 %

Wigan 23 / 42 / DOWN 19 Testing positive 8.8%


Big changes week to week today with almost every one falling in past 7 days or level and just Bolton up slightly.
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Keep up the efforts, many check in for your info and it’s much appreciated
 
feedthegoat27 said:
Yeah I'm not doubting you or anything haha

Dubai is still red list now....if I flew back to the UK from Dubai then I'd have to hotel quarantine on arrival.
If I flew Dubai to Frankfurt, then connected onto a flight from there then I'd still have to hotel quarantine unless I spent 10 days in Germany before heading back to the UK.

So either the rules aren't being enforced or people are breaking up their journey from a red list country for 10 days to then avoid the hotel quarantine.....I'm thinking the former is more likely than the latter.
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They just lie on the forms mate
 
Another uneventful week still in lockdown. Still dates not data. I wonder come June 21st what they will actually do to the legislation. Given the “trials” of events there is no chance of “near normal” as
Promised come June 21st.
Fully expect a nonsensical lockdown come October as well.
Depressing
 
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