Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Northern Ireland

0 deaths - was 0 last week

39 cases - was 53 last week

Lowesr number here in over 8 months.
 
crooky said:
Blimey proper cracking through them there then... I'm around 30 and I've got to drive for 35 minutes to get mine. Not sure if there's lots of people currently getting vaccines around here or there's considerably less centres/capacity.

Then you have London which is massively behind any other region.
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Not true. Enfield, for example, were jabbing people in their 20s early this month. Most people I know who are in their 40s have had two vaccinations.

The issue is vaccine hesitancy among some ethnic groups. BAME communities make up around 50% of the population in the capital. Would not surprise me if language is an issue too.

I would suggest the vaccine is working fine in most of London. For example, in Barnet (390k), where I live, and next door in Enfield (350k), each average only about 5 or 6 positive cases per day and one hospital death per week, over several weeks.
 
Not great news on the North West. Cases up again and now even higher than everywhere.

Up 103 to 1038 - that is 543 up on last weeks 495. More than doubled despite Sunday and Bank Holiday.

The next nearest is London - up 26 to 381 - 657 behind.

Yorkshire is still falling which needs to be understood as to why given the proximity. On just 279 and has not been over 350 in a couple of weeks now.

Sadly too Bolton is UP today both on the day by 38 to 151 and wk to wk by 45. It is actually just 2 below where it was 2 weeks ago today. But at least this might be a kind of flattening.
 
Greater Manchester has its second highest numbers since last year - 631 cases - up 99 on yesterday.

The NW day to day rise is 103 - so as you see GM basically was ALL of today's NW rise.


THe week to week GM riseis from 299 last Monday - so up 332 of the NW wk to wk rise of 543 - which is not quite as bad but well over the expected GM share.

So little argument that GM is the biggest single reason for these numbers.
 
Here is the big news - though - as I predicted yesterday from the path of the data as it looked likey - as did Zoe btw - Bolton is NOT now the highest scorer in Greater Manchester even after going up to 151.

Manchester had a big jump up of 68 to 165. Which is an enormous 120 up on last week.

So the city of Manchester alone contributed 120 of the NW region 299 week to week increase.
 
Healdplace said:
It is indeed if you live anywhere but Greater Manchester.

Though Sunday AND weekend data recall. And Wales will report two days data both tomorrow and Wednesday
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Did anyone die in Gtr Manchester and what were the hospital numbers? 1,000 cases out of 3 million people, hardly time to panic.
 
Full GM details:

BOROUGH / CASES TODAY / V YESTERDAY / V LAST WEEK

BOLTON 151 / UP 38 / UP 45

BURY 39 / DOWN 10 / UP 15

MANCHESTER 165 / UP 68 / UP 120

OLDHAM 31 / UP 7 / UP 17

ROCHDALE 29 / DOWN 4 / UP 2

SALFORD 63 / UP 4 / UP 46

STOCKPORT 33 / DOWN 23 / UP 16

TAMESIDE 33 / UP 9 / UP 26

TRAFFORD 39 / UP 3 / UP 17

WIGAN 48 / UP 7 / UP 28
 
True_Blue69 said:
Did anyone die in Gtr Manchester and what were the hospital numbers? 1,000 cases out of 3 million people, hardly time to panic.
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Who is panicking? I am just stating the reality of the data.

And you know - as I have said it often enough in here - that I am very well aware why the hospital numbers matter.

I spend a lot of time posting them in detail here every weekday so I assume you realise from this that I know they matter.

And you also presumably know - because I prewarned here - that England would have no death numbers in detail or hospital numbers across the Bank Holiday weekend so it will be tomorrow before we catch up on a lot of numbers.

But we do know from Scotland that these and ventiltors are rising steadily butas yet happily modestly.

I expect the England numbers to do much the same with the continuing slow fall in most other regions counteracting to a degree the rises that the North West specifically will continue to drive up.

As I have said many times these numbers are not a disater but they have to be watched as they will hopefully stay that way thanks to the demographics of the people testing positive now. But until these number fall we will not fully know the extent of the increase. Only be fairly sure there will be one.

And IF the NW wave spreads the variant to other regions a small rise could become a bigger one quite quickly.
 
Your last sentence sums it up, Healdplace, but even if only in small numbers at this stage it seems the horse has still very much bolted.

I never panicked in March of 2020 or in December of the same year, and I'm not panicking now, but it's becoming increasingly difficult to not see things going in the same direction as they done on those first two occasions.
 
We were told definitively a week ago exactly what the effectiveness of the vaccines are against the Indian variant so as far as the UK is concerned it's straightforward. We just vaccinate until we reach the threshold that stops its spread, and if we need a lockdown to buy us time then we do that. I don't see this as a big deal. People will get vaccinated when it's their turn because if they don't, we are all in limbo.

More problematic is the inevitable spread across the world which will lead to more variants and that is where the danger lies. It would be good if we had more visibility on the variant vaccines. What needs to be done to launch them? Is it a formality or is there a lot of testing and work ahead? This is what I would like the vaccines minister / Hancock to answer. At the moment, we just have vague talk about an Autumn booster. To an extent, I understand that you can't commit to it when you don't have it but it would be nice to know what are the hurdles and hoops to get through. What kind of trials have to be undertaken? Are Phase 3 trials required, or is safety/immunogenicity enough? Moderna are already well down that road. Less, or virtually nothing has been said about AstraZeneca but I bet they are working on this.
 
Latest Vaccine Update by Population Percentage for 10 GM boroughs

Borough/ First Dose / Both Doses / TODAY V YESTERDAY



BOLTON 70.9% / 44.5% V 70.8% / 44.1%

BURY 69.5% / 47.2% V 69.4% / 46.8%

MANCHESTER 50.1 / 28.2 % V 49.9% / 27.9%

OLDHAM 65.1 % / 42.4% V 64.9% / 42.4%

ROCHDALE 68.3% / 41.8% V 68.2% / 41.8%

SALFORD 57.1 % / 39 % V 56.9% / 38.7%

STOCKPORT 73.1% / 51.3% V 72.8% / 51.2%

TAMESIDE 70% / 46.3% V 69.9% / 46.1%

TRAFFORD 71.7% / 47.1% V 71.5% / 47%

WIGAN 72.6% / 49.8% V 72.5% / 49.4%


Ony modest changes but Oldham and Rochdae barely moving Stockport still the most on both 1 st and 2nd doses.
 
ayrshire_blue said:
Your last sentence sums it up, Healdplace, but even if only in small numbers at this stage it seems the horse has still very much bolted.

I never panicked in March of 2020 or in December of the same year, and I'm not panicking now, but it's becoming increasingly difficult to not see things going in the same direction as they done on those first two occasions.
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We have 60% of all people with at least 1 vaccine compare to 0% in March or December. Genuinely not comparable.
 
Greater Manchester

Weekly total cases:-




Tameside 140, Oldham 178, Trafford 179, Rochdale 210, Stockport 241 , Bury 246, Wigan 291, Salford 339. Manchester 708, Bolton 1096.

Bolton up a bit but Manchester starting to accelerate and breathe down its neck. When Bolton was 6 times Manchester a week or so back. How this race evens out and where is crucial to how easily we can turn this wave around.

The others are rising too.

A week ago many GM boroughs were under 100 weekly cases or just above. Now nobody is under 100 and only 3 are under 200 and most of them seem likely not to be wthin a day or twq.

This probably shows even more clearly than the Pop Scores do how things are switching daily.
 
True_Blue69 said:
We have 60% of all people with at least 1 vaccine compare to 0% in March or December. Genuinely not comparable.
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We are also open up in a manner which we weren't at those times. Where the vaccines will help us this will hinder us. Not arguing for constant lockdown btw, but it's where we are.
 
Healdplace said:
Greater Manchester

Weekly total cases:-




Tameside 140, Oldham 178, Trafford 179, Rochdale 210, Stockport 241 , Bury 246, Wigan 291, Salford 339. Manchester 708, Bolton 1096.

Bolton up a bit but Manchester starting to accelerate and breathe down its neck. When Bolton was 6 times Manchester a week or so back. How this race evens out and where is crucial to how easily we can turn this wave around.

The others are rising too.

A week ago many GM boroughs were under 100 weekly cases or just above. Now nobody is under 100 and only 3 are under 200 and most of them seem likely not to be wthin a day or twq.

This probably shows even more clearly than the Pop Scores do how things are switching daily.
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It's frustrating that the English figures are not broken down in terms of age ranges in the same way as Scotland's are (thanks to Ayshire Blue) as it would help in the push to target the people who need to be vaccinated.
 
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