Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Zoe App update:

The escalation keeps going up up and away.

Daily cases 14, 416 - which at 795 is the lowest increase in a day in some time. So goodish news.

Ongoing symptomatic cases up 11, 343 in the day to 152, 273 - though that is also a modest drop in the increase

North West is still the highest numbers above Scotland with a predicted POP score range of 369 - 829.

That - btw - is higher at the lower end than every borough in GM as of last night. Bolton is on 315 and Salford 301. Though not sure the Zoe and Gov system is entirely compatible.
 
Psychedelic Casual said:
I do agree, but I wouldn’t worry about school being missed too much.

Before 1988 there was no National Curriculum and schools just taught what they thought was best, with some schools teaching curriculums vastly or even wholly different to other schools. People were starting Level 3 and Further courses having been taught barely any or none of the course they were entering, and while that’s not preferable it’s not the end of the world. I did an A-level (Sport) that I didn’t do at GCSE, and it was my best A-level grade; and in my third year at uni I picked up some units in a subject (Business) that I’d not done at GCSE nor A-level and they were my best grades at uni.

Of course, I’m not saying don’t worry at all because there will certainly be an impact, but the emphasis on how much impact that missing school-time will have has been exaggerated a bit … and that’s coming from an Exams Officer!

We noticed that our Year 11 and 13s came back from lockdowns with a greater work ethic than we’d seen from previous year groups and that will do them good for their future. I work at a school that’s not been out of the top 10% most deprived catchment schools in the country in the dozen years I’ve worked there and we’ve never seen so many kids appreciate their education as much as we have in the last 18 months. It might be a bit of a wake up call (that was needed!) for the nation when it comes to education.

Also, it will have taught them ways to research, revise and learn independently that they may never have been afforded at school, which will do some good for those who take on degrees and higher. Unis sometimes find children who were home schooled have better research and independent study skills than those who attended school, and research and independent study are Kings at degree and higher levels.

So there are some positives to take.

I think the greatest impact will be on the youngest school age groups. Those just starting to learn to read; but they have years to catch up to where they need to be. It’ll just take some tweaking on how they’re taught.
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Our youngest children, aged 4 and 5 have come back massively impacted. They’ve missed up to a third of their education. It’s the social aspect too, all that time away from peers. And all that time missing out on social norms: turn taking, playing, chatting, laughing. I do think they’ll “catch up” but it will be a long process and throwing billions at it isn’t the only answer; we need to do this properly, over time, not think that getting kids to do 7 days a week learning is the answer. But I fear the rhetoric from ofsted et al will be different. Anyway, wondering off topic, let’s hope all our kids can look back soon on this as a blip.
 
GM Zoe data

Bolton 23, 865

Bury 6772

Manchester 10. 201

Oldham 602

Rochdale 20, 511

Salford 12, 331

Stockport 6041

Tameside 3655

Trafford 5202

Wigan 2287


As you can see Oldham doing spectacularly well, pretty much everywhere well up but Bolton, Manchester and Salford especially so,

Bury and Stockport highest of the second tier.

Trafford is showing signs of stabilising both here and in reported daily cases.

Wigan not as high as recent cases in real data might infer it should be.

Ribble Valley is the highest normal number in NW now at 8045

Much of Yorkshire - in fact literally from Huddersfield to the coast between Bridlington and Hull is ALL now on watch, Recent big uptick here.

Much the same is true in and around London. Cases are spreading there widely now.

In the North there is a coast to coast run from Workington to Newcastle/Sunderland ALL in pink.

And in Scotland it is pretty much just the northern islands and highlands NOT on watch!

There has been a dramatic change from a few outbreak spots to all but everywhere now having multiple watch areas. Even south Wales has areas covered now too.

This is no longer a NW focused outbreak.

Though odds are - being first in - NW will be the first to turn this around hopefully.
 
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Healdplace said:
However, the number one priority for when we can fully open up is to NOT let this same thing happen all over again in the deja vu way that we seem to have progressed over the past year.

An incoming new variant that sets us backward is the big threat and will stay that way until we have vaccinated the planet not just ourelves. As we cannot just stay locked down until 2023 we need a better strategy.

We have to stop that taking hold here much much better than we have on this occasion. That needs urgently addressing and plans drawn up to ensure that it does not.
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If only we were an island
 
johnnytapia said:
If only we were an island
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I know that looks like a way to defend against variants but there is a huge difference between an island like Malta where people fly to and from but not via. Or New Zealand and Australia which are destinations that are so remote from everywhere else and not layovers to transit a continent.

The UK is an island group - both England & Scotland and Ireland as a whole - where layovers in international travel are far more common. We could stop it but it would be at a huge cost long term. So never a simple decision as it is in other places that have done this well.

So it is much much harder to patrol borders here than in the majority of other isolated islands. Just look at how many arrive here illegally by row boat every week. Bit easier to row 30 miles than 1000.

We have to do better at specific targets but closing off our borders is impossible even for the things we have to import. We only survived the war because US ships brought things here defying the U Boats to do so. No way could we have survived self sufficiently for long. Had we just existed as an island on our own then World War Two would have been 1939 - 1941 and World War three would have probably then happened later.

I mean you ban all flights and they will still get here by train. That is not going to happen in New Zealand.

Yes, we have to do more but it is not just a case of we are an island so just lock down the borders.
 
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1030 infections in Scotland today

25 of them are in people over 65.
179 in people 45-64

345 in 25-44
470 in 0-24

As I said the other day, the numbers of older folks being infected were consistently in low single digits only 2-3 weeks ago. The numbers are still relatively low, but as cases rise so will that 25 from today. I realise not all of them will need hospital treatment or ultimately be am ICU or death, but the more the figure rises the more will be included in those latter categories sadly.

It's why my opinion is that it's best to try and keep case numbers as low as possible until we're done with the vaccination programme or as near to as possible. The numbers amongst future hospital brackets will come from a mixture of age categories.

***************

2 deaths

1 aged 85+
1 aged 75-84

*****************

18k first doses
27k second doses

After a slow but steady rise, these vaccination numbers are on a slow but steady decline again. Probably to do with the slow supply which was mentioned yesterday.
 
Scotland data

2 deaths - was 1 last week

1030 cases - wa 860 last week

4.1% positivity

There is still an impact from the data lag reported yesterdy.

So bad as this seems there are hints of a slowing down in Scotland.
 
As you see Ayrshire's Scottish data again shows the same pattern as in N Ireland and England.

Those catching this are MUCH younger than they were in the last wave. And symptoms are reportedly much milder - usually more like a cold than the Covid we knew. Indeed most reportedly have no idea they have Covid when tested.

So case numbers are presently far less concering than they once were though not to the point we can ignore them altogether if they keep going up.

Realistically 1000 cases in the UK today given the new dynamics is akin to maybe 4000 cases under the old normal.
 
Healdplace said:
Scotland data

2 deaths - was 1 last week

1030 cases - wa 860 last week

4.1% positivity

There is still an impact from the data lag reported yesterdy.

So bad as this seems there are hints of a slowing down in Scotland.
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I read about the lag as well but I'm struggling to interpret it. Does it mean that these figures (I believe from Glasgow) are being reported today and yesterday are artificially low and they'll be caught up (some time next week most likely) or that these numbers today are higher due to a previous delay?

Obviously hoping it's the second of those but for whatever reason I can't get my head around what it means.
 
Healdplace said:
It is not a reporting effect. It is real.

I have posted regularly from before the first vaccination and as it has developed lots of data in here on the age range of who is catching Covid.

The data is very clear. The age ranges have shifted markedly over the past 6 months everywhere the data is available.

Not just the UK Gov heat maps - that are a fairly new addition but a great visual way to show this as I have said a few times in recent months.

But also in the data supplied daily by other nations. Ayrshire posts it daily here from Scotland. I post it daily or every few days from N Ireland based on their past 7 days cases age ranges testing positive.

Every one of these things tells the same story.

In the last wave - pre vaccination programme - as well as the previous waves - we had 40 K in hospital 4000 on ventilators and 1000 dying a day at the peak BECAUSE the people testing positive skewed towards the older age ranges.

Likely younger people were catching it but not getting sick enough to know or seek out testing as much so that skewed things a little.

But the reality is the numbers changed, at first slowly, but then as the pace of vaccination accelerated, grew faster and you could literally watch if you read back months in this thread and see how they radically a ltered the dynamic we now see.

Very obviousy the one factor triggering this was that the vaccinations which coincide entirely with this alteration - and started with the oldest / most vulnerable and have worked downwards in age to the 20s now.

This is why these numbers have shifted so radically from the wave in January to the one now.

Cases are rising like then but patients, ventilators and deaths - whilst rising in tandemas they are bound to do - are not doing so to anything like the same degree. It looks all but certain even if we get up to 60,000 cases a day as we did in January we will not see numbers anything like we had in the hospital data then. Though they might still rise enough to be a moderate problem for the NHS especially at the point they are needing to catch up on other urgent care that has been on hold for a year,

The age dynamic shift from 20% catching it under 40 six months back to 80% now catching it and from 25% catching it in the vulnerable over 60s down now to under 5% is why we have a radically different wave now.

The case numbers still matter but they matter much less because they are only translating into modest rises in hospital numbers.

We should nt get complacent. This could change, And 60,000 cases would still put strain on the NHS regardless. And more seriously a vaccine evading variant is more than possible if we let it in by complacency or sheer frustration to just get on with it. That would put us back almost to the start.

Things are looking very good right now in the medium term if we navigate through this uptick carefully and not jump a few weeks early into the melting pot.

Get everyone vaccinated over coming weeks we will be as safe as we are ever going to be. Just hold the faith for that. A few weeks atop the past year can be managed.
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Simply observing a rising count of cases in young people does not mean the underlying rate of infection in young people is going up.
 
Marvin said:
Simply observing a rising count of cases in young people does not mean the underlying rate of infection in young people is going up.
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No but it means the rate relative to the ones who are older and more vulnerable is increasing a lot.

Which is what matters in terms of health care and death.

And the vaccination profile is pretty obviously the main reason why as it is happening everywhere you look AND progressing as we have vaccinated higher and higher proportions of the vulnerable.
 
ayrshire_blue said:
I read about the lag as well but I'm struggling to interpret it. Does it mean that these figures (I believe from Glasgow) are being reported today and yesterday are artificially low and they'll be caught up (some time next week most likely) or that these numbers today are higher due to a previous delay?

Obviously hoping it's the second of those but for whatever reason I can't get my head around what it means.
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I think it means catch up over the past two days from lower numbers over the previous days. Thats how I read it.

Which would mean a stabilising of numbers around 900 evened out not an increasing daily rise.

Could be wrong though but that is what I assumed they meant.

It seemed an issue identified and resolved but as tests take a few days to work through to the final figures the issue can take a few days before it stops impacting the numbers.

Though I agree it could have been clearer and that guess might be wrong.
 
No Wales data today as usual now and no England hospital data anywhere until Monday. Though the number tonight will allow an inference. As it is 2 plus whatever is added for England.

Last week the number was 13 and 12 of those were in England.

Yesterdays 17 all settings deaths (16 from England) was - btw - the highest in a month.
 
Bolton 134 cases - down 3 on the day and 37 on last Saturday

Seems to have levelled off but not really falling notably much.

Last 5 days 127 - 133 - 103 - 137 - 134
 
Healdplace said:
No Wales data today as usual now and no England hospital data anywhere until Monday. Though the number tonight will allow an inference. As it is 2 plus whatever is added for England.

Last week the number was 13 and 12 of those were in England.

Yesterdays 17 all settings deaths (16 from England) was - btw - the highest in a month.
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Sometimes data can be misleading because you change the way it is collected so I am asking whether the increase in the numbers we are finding in young people, particularly children, is real. For example if we surge test in schools we will find cases in children even if the positivity rate is low.
 
Another pretty good day for Greater Manchester. Did much better again than the NW region as a whole.

Cases 1098 in GM - down 93 on yesterdy.

North West fell by just 126 to second highest ever at 2191. So 93 out of that 126 drop came in GM. Well above average.


Week to week NW was up 439 and GM was up 166 of that number - which is well below expectations of about half. So even better for GM.

In GM only Rochdale and Tameside were up today.

Manchester fell by 51 and Bury by 41 but both were up week to week.

Stockport on the other hand fell 21 to be below 100 and 8 less than the 102 from last Saturday,

GM numbers do appear to have stabilised over the past week and the NW problems at the moment are largely a result of cases rising now in other parts of the region to which it has spread - such as much of Cheshire and North Lancashire and Merseyside.
 
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