Coronavirus (2021) thread

[west didsblue]

I created a version of that chart few days back so nothing new, in fact I had a better chart as mine was lagged 10 day hospitalisation rates. Probably a few people on here don't believe the stats I produce but they are just morons. Like I said we should have opened up on 21st June all the maths said nothing bad was going to happen and guess what it hasn't. All the SAGE model look really poorly fitted and overpredicted by a mile, questions need to be asked why. So all this delay has done is cost the tax pay £30 billion quid. Shocking decision

As shocking decisions go it pales into insignificance when compared to previous shocking decisions made by this government since the start of the pandemic. At least it hasn't caused the deaths of extra tens of thousands of people like most of their previous ones.

 

[BerkshireBlue]

As shocking decisions go it pales into insignificance when compared to previous shocking decisions made by this government since the start of the pandemic. At least it hasn't caused the deaths of extra tens of thousands of people like most of their previous ones.

Quite true, there's a lot of blood on their hands

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

UK currently has more cases than the whole of the EU(!) - note log scale - but countries showing quite a divergent position, I would guess as Delta starts to take hold. Most of Europe is something like 5-6 weeks behind us on vaccinations, but currently vaccinating quite a lot faster than we are. Of course, what proportion of cases countries are picking up may be quite different, so take with a pinch of salt.

Some countries (Spain, Portugal) look to be following us quite rapidly. Likely to follow the a similar track ?

Others (France, Italy) maybe turning up, maybe not, might yet win vaccination vs virus race and avoid a spike like ours?

Then those in the best position (Germany, Poland) who even if Delta starts to drive a case increase, look to be sufficiently ahead of the virus that they'll likely avoid a spike of our magnitude.

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You can certainly understand why British visitors might not be the most welcome right now.

I know this isn’t the full story necessarily but the testing rate must play a part?

 

[Del_Bosque]

We are likely doing WAYYY more tests than that only 1 in 7 lft’s are registered. Probably just people binning the negative ones

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

We are likely doing WAYYY more tests than that only 1 in 7 lft’s are registered. Probably just people binning the negative ones

I know, but even if it’s just those numbers, it’s staggering!
When you then factor in lemon juice and coke positives. Admissions, discharges and deaths are the only metrics we should be using and even then probably only once a week.

 

[Healdplace]

The discussion over the past few pages was fascinating but lost me.

Can someone summarise what the conclusions are about where we are headed.

From the hospital data I post here every evening it seems clear that NW has plateaued more or less and numbers have at least slowed in their increase.

But overall numbers are going up because every other region is coming on stream with the same modest level of admissions and ICU etc. So these are all coming at once instead of just the NW as it was hence what looks like a big rise but we can presume they will all follow the NW track over coming weeks,

From the NW data it is clear that only a smallish percentage of those admitted stay in for long, Because 60 a day or so in the NW have been going in but nothing like 400 patients a week are added. More like 60. So that suggests short stays to balance those numbers, Given it is not deaths balancing the books as these are way down on past waves thankfully.

Very sick patients as in ventilated and deaths HAVE focused on the NW recently but even these now seem to be dropping a couple of weeks after the stall.

This infers that we may not see a peak of more than say 3000 patients and 400 on ventilators in coming weeks. Very much a guess based on what has occurred in the NW which is in of itself a big area so a good indicator, Especially as Scotland seems to be going the same path,

We are entering the phase where many regions peak at once so numbers are going to rise. But the age of those catching it seems steady at around 4% over 60 and 75% under 40 and that plus the vaccinations are why 30,000 cases now is nothing like it was in January.

That is my purely non expert take on what I am seeing in the data.

But I am no scientist so could easily be misreading things.

 

[Del_Bosque]

The gist i’d been getting from following some modellers on twitter is thay the variables seem to be all over the place and they can’t put out a model they are happy with till things settle down ( r no, hospitalisation rates)

all they seem to agree on is deaths will be low.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

I know this isn’t the full story necessarily but the testing rate must play a part?

Absolutely. Hence "Of course, what proportion of cases countries are picking up may be quite different, so take with a pinch of salt."

But I think that would only really apply to the absolute level rather than the trend. And the trends are pretty clear, our rate is rising faster and for longer than anywhere else.

There's probably equivalent data to the ONS survey for other countries, which would provide better info on the absolute levels.

If be amazed if given the totality of the data we don't have the highest Penshurst in Europe right now.

 

[Gabriel]

Interesting discussion in the Dutch papers about people wanting to knowing whether their neighbours, colleagues, and service providers have been vaccinated. Approximately two-thirds would like to know, but under law that information is private. There’s a narrower split in terms of whether it is appropriate to ask someone. I suppose asking someone ‘have you been vaccinated yet’ today will be rather different from asking someone ‘have you been vaccinated’ in a few months.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

French and US progress with adolescent vaccinations...

 

[Healdplace]

Wales data:

0 deaths - was 1 last week

570 cases - was 336 last week

3.2% positivity - was 2.0% last week

39 patients - was 42 last week

2 ventilated - was 1 last week

 

[M18CTID]

Look at the number matey :-)

I know! I was posting my reply when I figured it was probably that ;)

 

[Healdplace]

ONS data shows big rise in prevalence of Covid now back to February levels

England up to 1 in 260 from 1 in 440 last week

Scotland the worst at 1 in 150 up from 1 in 220

Wales doubled to 1 in 450 from 1 in 830

N Ireland last to see Delta due to the Irish Sea slowing it a little I imagine 1 in 670 from 1 in 720

So NI the furthest back in the spread.

 

[splinter]

ONS data shows big rise in prevalence of Covid now back to February levels

England up to 1 in 260 from 1 in 440 last week

Scotland the worst at 1 in 150 up from 1 in 220

Wales doubled to 1 in 450 from 1 in 830

N Ireland last to see Delta due to the Irish Sea slowing it a little I imagine 1 in 670 from 1 in 720

So NI the furthest back in the spread.

Do you think it'll peak and level off in the North West first

 

[ayrshire_blue]

The gist i’d been getting from following some modellers on twitter is thay the variables seem to be all over the place and they can’t put out a model they are happy with till things settle down ( r no, hospitalisation rates)

all they seem to agree on is deaths will be low.

Agree entirely with that view. They seem to be at the "fuck knows anymore" stage, and are pretty surprised that R keeps increasing when they expected things on that front to have settled by this stage.

 

[Healdplace]

Do you think it'll peak and level off in the North West first

It already is starting to I think. If you check the regional data I post around 6 each evening here the NW seems to have slowed at around 4500 cases whilst other regions are escalating fast - North East gone from 50 to 2500 in 4 weeks when NW rose from 1000 to around 4500 and has flattened here,

Ditto South West from 88 to 1800, West Midlands 200 to 2400.

Look at Bolton from by far the worst in the region with a Pop score of around 480. Now down to nearly half that but pretty flat around 280. Where it is now the BEST in GM ahead of even Stockport now.

My guess is that others will follow the path but are a week or two back in GM as Bolton was first to escalate and the NW has followed GM which it spread to maybe 4 weeks behind. GM numbers seem to be ahead of the fall across the NW which I also report each evening,

So this is likely 6 weeks before the rest of the UK go that path.

Though the increasing vaccinations in other regions as they were delayed in the Delta spread getting there could make the difference that they do not go so high and have so far to fall.

But not going up when England cases are is still a good sign GM and NW are around the peak,

The hospital data I post each evening also suggests the NW leveling off just as other regions come on to make up the difference. NW clearly less the driver that it was. Which is good news for all,

What we need to see is Bolton fall not just flatten off and other GM boroughs then fall too. We are not at that point as yet. Hopefully soon,

 

[Manchester33]

Interesting discussion in the Dutch papers about people wanting to knowing whether their neighbours, colleagues, and service providers have been vaccinated. Approximately two-thirds would like to know, but under law that information is private. There’s a narrower split in terms of whether it is appropriate to ask someone. I suppose asking someone ‘have you been vaccinated yet’ today will be rather different from asking someone ‘have you been vaccinated’ in a few months.

At no point should random people be able to access anyone's medical records. GDPR nightmare. Human rights nightmare. Can't happen and won't happen.

 

[Healdplace]

England hospital deaths:

There is now a clear sign these are rising but as yet not to a big degree. NW will still lead the way for sone weeks as it still has the highest cases even now. It needs to fall as others rise or we may top 100 deaths a day at some point a few weeks from now.

19 today with 10 from the NW. V 13 with 9 last week and 9 with 2 the week before

 

[Healdplace]

Other England hospital deaths details:

Regions:- 1 London, 6 Midlands, 2 NE & Yorkshire - everywhere else 0

The NW ones were 5 in Lancashire, 2 in Manchester, 1 each St Helens, Salford, Pennine Acute

The age ranges are telling: 4 aged just 20 - 39, 2 aged 40 - 59, 5 aged 60 - 79 and 8 aged 80 +

The younger deaths are rising as most cases are in those age groups but the % who do die is still low.

30 June added 10 deaths to take it to 14 after just 2 days - most at 2 days since 22 April.

Already looks like every day at 5 days will be in double figures this week. The last time that happened was 17 - 23 April. Weekly total then was 103. Most recent 7 day total after 5 days is 64 - wk ending 27 June.

 

[Healdplace]

Scotland data

4 deaths - was 2 last week

3823 cases - was 1747 last week

10.8% positivity - was 6.9% last week

285 in hospital - up 10 on day - was 188 last week

19 ventilated - up 3 on yesterday - was 16 last week

The hospital data is rising a little too fast to be comfortable but given the cases no surprise,

They are similar case number levels now to NW numbers a week ago when NW had 444 in hospital and 89 on ventilators.

So Scotland is well ahead of that happily, Though NW had been there a week or so already so this might be where Scotland is headed fr its plateau,

A week on NW is on 498 patients (up 54) and 91 on ventilators (up 2)

I expect the same will happen in Scotland - only a fraction of those going in stay in more than a day or two. So high cases will spike numbers but they will not escalate as much as is feared.