Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Healdplace]

And total cases for the 3 nations ( two days worth from Wales as always on Monday) is 3852.

Last week it was 4048,

England added 23, 286 to that making 27, 334 last Monday for UK

Yesterday England added 28, 421 to make UK total 31, 772

 

[Healdplace]

6 all settings deaths

34, 471 cases

30, 619 from England - up 2198 on yesterday and 7333 on last week.

P1llar 1 & 2 tests 1, 093, 507 today - up from 714, 730 yesterday & 881, 710 Saturday.

Last Monday was 1, 256, 153

 

[roubaixtuesday]

New (lack of) restrictions has been announced in commons and press embargo lifted.

A week's notice of a new "encouraged" checking regime for venues which the government will "be in touch" about.

What could possibly go wrong?

Instead, with only a week to go until mass events in England will be allowed to go ahead, and venues such as nightclubs can reopen, the prime minister’s official spokesman said the government would be in touch with businesses to encourage them to implement Covid checks at the door.

He suggested customers could either show that they have been double-vaccinated, or had a positive PCR test within the past six months – or could carry out a lateral flow test and show the email they received after reporting a negative result.

He declined to say what the govt modelling predicted hospitalisations to be. Funny that.

 

[blue b4 the moon]

6 all settings deaths

34, 471 cases

30, 619 from England - up 2198 on yesterday and 7333 on last week.

Growth rate is slowing, may even level out before last night & then Freedom come into play.

 

[feelymcfeel]

Just rebooked my second jab - this Friday. Will be 8 weeks to the day after my first, I'm 34.

Every day I looked at had availability, so worth a look if you're still waiting for 12 weeks in your 30s - see if you can bring it forward.

 

[crooky]

Just rebooked my second jab - this Friday. Will be 8 weeks to the day after my first, I'm 34.

Every day I looked at had availability, so worth a look if you're still waiting for 12 weeks in your 30s - see if you can bring it forward.

But you can only search if you cancel your original appointments right?

 

[Quad]

But you can only search if you cancel your original appointments right?

It shows you the options first before you cancel it

I brought mine forward last week , my arm still bloody killing

 

[Healdplace]

Not a good day for the NW or Greater Manchester. Both up quite a bit, But could be worse,

Stockport had a bad day a lot up week to week (just under 200 cases again). Bury was way up too but lowest scorer on 141 - highest low score in GM in some while.

Trafford had a better day and was down day to day and week to week and for the first tie in ages cut Stockport's huge lead in the overall Pop score numbers - not the other way around - all be it just by 2.

Salford was the only other borough down day to day (by 5) but unlike Trafford was still well up on last week, But nothing like Stockport's week to week rise only beaten by Manchester,

Zoe app had Stockport rising a few days ago though it has been inching down there in past two days so this might be what they saw,

If their numbers improve this week we will know,

Either way it almost went out of the 8000 club - Stockport is the last GM borough still in it and - as Tameside today made it into the 10 K club only Trafford - 189 ahead of Stockport - is also under a 5 figure Pop Score from the 10 boroughs,

Though neither they or Stockport are staying that way more than two or three weeks on current numbers

 

[Gray]

Just rebooked my second jab - this Friday. Will be 8 weeks to the day after my first, I'm 34.

Every day I looked at had availability, so worth a look if you're still waiting for 12 weeks in your 30s - see if you can bring it forward.

No of first jabs is on a downward trend, looks like there is 10% of the population who are not wanting to be vaccinated. Would love to see how that group breaks down by ethnicity, age etc.

 

[Marvin]

New (lack of) restrictions has been announced in commons and press embargo lifted.

A week's notice of a new "encouraged" checking regime for venues which the government will "be in touch" about.

What could possibly go wrong?

Instead, with only a week to go until mass events in England will be allowed to go ahead, and venues such as nightclubs can reopen, the prime minister’s official spokesman said the government would be in touch with businesses to encourage them to implement Covid checks at the door.

He suggested customers could either show that they have been double-vaccinated, or had a positive PCR test within the past six months – or could carry out a lateral flow test and show the email they received after reporting a negative result.

He declined to say what the govt modelling predicted hospitalisations to be. Funny that.

The assumption there is that we are trying to restrict cases. We are not. Everyone knows now that vaccination is coming to an end for now so there is only one way out, and that's natural infection in the safest way possible which effectively amounts to as soon as possible. Drag it out and you will have infection with more serious consequences.

On an personal level I recognise we need population immunity but none of us want to be the vehicles through which we achieve that.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Growth rate is slowing, may even level out before last night & then Freedom come into play.

Maybe.

Personally, I'd be very cautious about extrapolating changes in case rates, unless we have a good understanding of what is driving those changes.

Here's a graph of the ratio of changes in case rates - each point is the ratio of cases on the day to the cases seven days earlier.



Note the steadily rising trend through May as Delta took hold.

Now, you can extrapolate the recent numbers down (pink line), or you can extrapolate the longer trend horizontally (green line). Either is perfectly reasonable, it just depends on whether you think there's an underlying mechanism behind recent drops, or it's just noise in the data on a longer term trend.

I wouldn't be bold enough to pick either, and changes next week might blow it out of the water anyway.



Eventually immunity through vaccination and infection should drive that trend in the direction of the pink line, but it could be any time from now until late into the summer. Scotland is still falling, so maybe we will follow the pink.

 

[crooky]

It shows you the options first before you cancel it

I brought mine forward last week , my arm still bloody killing

Cool good to know. I think that's a new option?

Just tried it and it said there was nothing available but it's only just been 5 weeks since my first so to be expected.

Thanks for letting us know, as it is worth checking.

 

[Marvin]

No of first jabs is on a downward trend, looks like there is 10% of the population who are not wanting to be vaccinated. Would love to see how that group breaks down by ethnicity, age etc.

If you want you can download the data and get at the actual rates per age group because the colour code isn't particularly clear.

 

[feelymcfeel]

But you can only search if you cancel your original appointments right?

It shows you the options first before you cancel it

I brought mine forward last week , my arm still bloody killing

Like Hutchy said, it shows you what's available first, then you cancel, then you rebook.

It does only show you availibility at the site you're currently booked at. I moved mine from the MMC to Sportcity though.

 

[BerkshireBlue]

Never said people didn’t die of COVID. I’m saying now. How many people are dying of COVID. Not enough to justify continued restrictions considering that those vulnerable are vaccinated. Infections will never go away, it’s endemic, so we need to get on with life. People will die but not in great numbers.

the answer is 0.1% of the cases so at the moment with 35,000 that equates to 35 deaths.
Basically not many anymore and the percentage is dropping every day, Even half a million cases is only 500 deaths which is still a third of the level it was. Too many idiots quoting case numbers around shitting themselves. At least Javid knows what he's doing

 

[Marvin]

Maybe.

Personally, I'd be very cautious about extrapolating changes in case rates, unless we have a good understanding of what is driving those changes.

Here's a graph of the ratio of changes in case rates - each point is the ratio of cases on the day to the cases seven days earlier.

View attachment 21186

Note the steadily rising trend through May as Delta took hold.

Now, you can extrapolate the recent numbers down (pink line), or you can extrapolate the longer trend horizontally (green line). Either is perfectly reasonable, it just depends on whether you think there's an underlying mechanism behind recent drops, or it's just noise in the data on a longer term trend.

I wouldn't be bold enough to pick either, and changes next week might blow it out of the water anyway.

View attachment 21187

Eventually immunity through vaccination and infection should drive that trend in the direction of the pink line, but it could be any time from now until late into the summer. Scotland is still falling, so maybe we will follow the pink.

Or you could look at data in the clusters where the infection first started because the national effect is the sum of infections on a local level summed together. Hence people on here have been looking at individual Manchester boroughs to see if they can detect a fall in the first worst affected areas. If you can, then you can view that locality and consider a likely period of growth?

 

[artfuldodger]

So I assume you haven’t visited any pubs to see the lack of adherence to restrictions either :)

Next weeks lifting of restrictions won’t make a huge overall difference to cases in my view as lip service only is being paid by younger groups in particular. Cases will continue to rip through the unvaccinated & uninfected for a few more weeks before fizzling out.

Hopefully!!

As a parent of late teens/early 20s, I can only see nightclubs and festivals making any difference. Most other stuff, they’re already doing, certainly whilst the football has been on!!

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Or you could look at data in the clusters where the infection first started because the national effect is the sum of infections on a local level summed together. Hence people on here have been looking at individual Manchester boroughs to see if they can detect a fall in the first worst affected areas. If you can, then you can view that locality and consider a likely period of growth?

Impossible to generalise as local conditions are quite different I think?

And even if you believed it was possible, what conclusion do you draw from (just for instance) Bolton?

Cases are going to surge again?

Cases reach a plateau then fall?



I certainly don't feel confident extrapolating anything from that

 

[grunge]

No of first jabs is on a downward trend, looks like there is 10% of the population who are not wanting to be vaccinated. Would love to see how that group breaks down by ethnicity, age etc.

hitting 90% would be bloody good going in all fairness.

 

[Len Rum]

Growth rate is slowing, may even level out before last night & then Freedom come into play.

Oh yeah 'growth rates'.
LIke when deaths went from 10 to 20 in a day in the first wave i.e. a 100% and then later on a daily increase of 900 to 1000 was hailed as a 'success' because the increase was much lower - a mere 11% ( approx).
Those growth rates.