Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Toney’s bookie]

I don't understand why the "Spring 2020 peak" line is lower than the shown peak(!)

The shown peak is Spring 2021

 

[splinter]

ENGLAND HOSPITAL DATA

IN PATIENTS

THIS DATA IS FRIDAY TO TODAY

Big numbers now as every region starts adding numbers and sadly North West not falling or flattening yet as I hoped

North West went over the 4 days 596 - 648 - 655 - 703 - 738 V previous week 498 - 514 - 506 - 544 - 531
~
So a rise of 142 versus 33 wk to wk - not what we would hope to see from the NW right now

NW is still easily the highest region which is a concern as other regions are shooting up,

EAST went 102 - 108 - 103 - 117 - 148 - up 46 v last week up 22

LONDON went 411 - 435 - 440 - 467 - 514 - up 103 v 35 last week

MIDLANDS went 389 - 419 - 441 - 456 - 499 - up 110 v 90 last week

NE & YORKSHIRE went 442 - 473 - 511 - 543 - 592 - up 150 v 68 last week. THE RISING CONCERN IS HERE

SOUTH EAST went 170 - 164 - 156 - 158 - 180 - up just 10 v 20 last week. FALLING???

SOUTH WEST went 99 - 105 - 113 - 130 - 133 - up 34 v 25 last week


TOTAL PATIENTS IN ENGLAND HOSPITALS

Over the long weekend went:- 2209 - 2352 - 2429 - 2564 AND IS 2798 TODAY


A rise of 589 just over the weekend. By far the largest jump recently.

Last week the numbers went 1560 - 1611 - 1636 - 1744 - 1888 - UP 328.

The last 7 days to today is up 910 - last week it was 423 - wk before 175.

This is starting to look on track for 10,000 England alone patients in coming weeks as Roubaix suggested and I hoped not,.

Much less sure of that now,

It's going to get real messy

 

[Quad]

The only things not open at the moment are nightclubs and larger crowds at events that have crowds. The vulnerable at the moment will be isolating whether we're in a total lockdown or not. Opening up things further won't alter their situation. The majority can't stay prisoners forever for the minority. That sounds harsh but it's always been the way. We could stay with restrictions for the next ten years and not get rid of covid and the vulnerable will still be at risk. At some point we have to.live with it and choose whether we want to live a normal life or not. Everything carries a risk. It's not an easy solution but it has to be done.

I actually can’t wait to go for a family meal or have a proper meet up with my mates

 

[BlueHammer85]

I actually can’t wait to go for a family meal or have a proper meet up with my mates

that’s been allowed for months?

 

[Len Rum]

Is the lifting of restrictions still irreversible?
According to Saj and BloJo a few days ago it was but now that seems not be the case.
Should we be concerned or is it just another untruth/mixed message/lie whatever.

 

[Summerbuzz]

It's not an easy solution but it has to be done.

Nah. It doesn't have to be done. It's happening because people expect it. And a sizeable minority vocally demand it, make threats, etc.

The majority think one or more of the following.
A: Well, I guess, it's reasonable.
B: I don't know what else to suggest anyway.
C: I can't do another argument with them, give them their way now, and then we'll do what we have to when it goes tits up, and no-one is bothered about what the vocal and demanding sods think.

It'll probably go wrong, and then it'll stop happening. Like it never had to, not then, anyway.

Because that's the easiest way, politically. It's a mental fudge to say, "If not now, then when". It doesn't mean anything, there's hardly a well developed line of reasoning behind that exact stance, not one that people are into, anyway. But it sort of covers all the bases of the real thoughts about things. It means - yeah, because it's easier to reverse in the event of going wrong, than it is to have a sane discussion about reneging on a promise made to a very demanding minority.

Your kid demands Ice Cream. Every day. For Breakfast. Never shuts up. The more you say, no, the more insistent he becomes. The other kids start to join in. They don't really understand why you don't give it to him.

Whaddya do? Give them all ice cream, all the ice cream you can find, until the loud one eats himself into a comatose state. Then have a chat with the other ones about how daft it is to eat too much ice cream.

Small addendum to that metaphor: Boris is daddy, and he's spoilt this kid. The favourite. The tantrum and fall out if he lets him down now would send shockwaves through the family. No-one is really ready for that sort of upheaval, even the other kids. Even tho it's coming eventually. It's sort of.... not now. Can wait job. More worried about ice cream and enjoying summer. It's too soon. The favourite still has some sympathy from some of the other kids. Let that wear off. The only way it happens, they have to realise it's no good for him to get his own way all the time. And it would help if even he got a bit sick of it as well. Once that starts to happen, easy to reorganise the pecking order more reasonably.

Ice cream!

Eat as much as you want.

Because if not now - then when?

 

[Healdplace]

ENGLAND HOSPITAL DATA

VENTILATORS



These went over the long weekend 376 - 393 - 398 - 408 - 433 UP 57 versus 279 - 297 - 296 - 315 - 330 UP 51

Happily not much of a week to week rise here,

Over the long weekend:-


EAST UP 15 to 19

LONDON 75 to 103 - Biggest rise

MIDLANDS 70 to 76

NE & YORKSHIRE 64 to 74

SOUTH EAST 18 to 28 - Biggest percentage jump

SOUTH WEST 18 to 17

The NORTH WEST went over the days _:- 116 - 124 - 119 - 116 - 116

So aside from the South West down 1 the NW actually stayed level and London is closing in on overtaking.

So some good news to end on.

 

[Len Rum]

The only things not open at the moment are nightclubs and larger crowds at events that have crowds. The vulnerable at the moment will be isolating whether we're in a total lockdown or not. Opening up things further won't alter their situation. The majority can't stay prisoners forever for the minority. That sounds harsh but it's always been the way. We could stay with restrictions for the next ten years and not get rid of covid and the vulnerable will still be at risk. At some point we have to.live with it and choose whether we want to live a normal life or not. Everything carries a risk. It's not an easy solution but it has to be done.

Make sure you follow Blojo's advice and don't have a 'great jubilee' on July 19th mate.
On the other hand I'm sure you can treat yourself to a frozen jubbly.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Is the lifting of restrictions still irreversible?
According to Saj and BloJo a few days ago it was but now that seems not be the case.
Should we be concerned or is it just another untruth/mixed message/lie whatever.

Groundhog day as yet again it turns out that the virus is entirely unmoved by political rhetoric.

Shockingly even the same old schtick from a new health secretary has had bugger all effect on an infectious disease.

Who would have thought it?

At least the Dutch PM apologised.

 

[Len Rum]

Nah. It doesn't have to be done. It's happening because people expect it. And a sizeable minority vocally demand it, make threats, etc.

The majority think one or more of the following.
A: Well, I guess, it's reasonable.
B: I don't know what else to suggest anyway.
C: I can't do another argument with them, give them their way now, and then we'll do what we have to when it goes tits up, and no-one is bothered about what the vocal and demanding sods think.

It'll probably go wrong, and then it'll stop happening. Like it never had to, not then, anyway.

Because that's the easiest way, politically. It's a mental fudge to say, "If not now, then when". It doesn't mean anything, there's hardly a well developed line of reasoning behind that exact stance, not one that people are into, anyway. But it sort of covers all the bases of the real thoughts about things. It means - yeah, because it's easier to reverse in the event of going wrong, than it is to have a sane discussion about reneging on a promise made to a very demanding minority.

Your kid demands Ice Cream. Every day. For Breakfast. Never shuts up. The more you say, no, the more insistent he becomes. The other kids start to join in. They don't really understand why you don't give it to him.

Whaddya do? Give them all ice cream, all the ice cream you can find, until the loud one eats himself into a comatose state. Then have a chat with the other ones about how daft it is to eat too much ice cream.

Small addendum to that metaphor: Boris is daddy, and he's spoilt this kid. The favourite. The tantrum and fall out if he lets him down now would send shockwaves through the family. No-one is really ready for that sort of upheaval, even the other kids. Even tho it's coming eventually. It's sort of.... not now. Can wait job. More worried about ice cream and enjoying summer. It's too soon. The favourite still has some sympathy from some of the other kids. Let that wear off. The only way it happens, they have to realise it's no good for him to get his own way all the time. And it would help if even he got a bit sick of it as well. Once that starts to happen, easy to reorganise the pecking order more reasonably.

Ice cream!

Eat as much as you want.

Because if not now - then when?

Fazzakerley.
'If not now, when?
It's a childish question.

 

[worsleyweb]

Groundhog day as yet again it turns out that the virus is entirely unmoved by political rhetoric.

Shockingly even the same old schtick from a new health secretary has had bugger all effect on an infectious disease.

Who would have thought it?

At least the Dutch PM apologised.

not many are dieing though. We can’t be locked up forever and live like this forever.

 

[paulchapo]

Make sure you follow Blojo's advice and don't have a 'great jubilee' on July 19th mate.
On the other hand I'm sure you can treat yourself to a frozen jubbly.

I don't need to I've been going to the pub once or twice a month since allowed. I'm far too old for clubs thankfully and I was amongst the lucky 10,000 at City v Everton. I've queued outside shops and I wear my mask. I've also heard of two ex shipmates younger than me die of a heart attack in the last six weeks, none had covid. I'm going to live my life without fear as fully as possibly in the parameters allowed. None of us know how long that is but I've wasted over a year already.

 

[Healdplace]

UK HOSPITAL DATA

Not really able to do this correctly until Wednesday as N Ireland data will not resume until then,

Scotland is up to date but Wales a few days old.

But N Ireland has 60 patients and 0 ventilators at last count (V 32 patients and 1 ventilated last week)

Scotland as of today 469 patients and 40 ventilators (V 338 patients and 30 ventilators last week)

Wales 65 patients and 5 ventilated (V 50 patients and 4 ventilators last week)


So 594 patients v 420 last week & 45 ventilated v 35 last week




AND SO THE UK TOTAL AS BEST WE CAN CALCULATE TODAY IS: 3392 patients (was 2308 last week) Up not much under 50% in the week,

And Ventilators 478 (was 365 last week) - a slightly smaller increase

 

[ayrshire_blue]

2,134 cases in Scotland, plus more as there's yet another IT issue so a delay in processing an unknown amount of cases.

128 in people aged 65+
394 in people aged 45-64

767 in people aged 25-44
827 in people aged 0-24

The last category broken down further

287 aged 0-14
540 aged 15-24

**************

0 deaths (Sunday data)

*************

Under 6k first doses (soon have more IT issues than first doses going out at this rate)

16k second doses

 

[argyle]

Israel opened up fully and then reversed it with mandatory mask wearing.

Netherlands has just done the same and closed nightclubs.

I expect England to do the same at some point.

It seems it needs saying again, lockdowns, masks, etc aren't to stop covid they are to prevent health systems from being swamped.

 

[Healdplace]

On 17 December - PRE VACCINES - going into the last wave - we had 35, 383 cases (v today 34, 471)

On that day there were 18, 970 patients in UK hospitals (v 3392 today) this is just 17.9% of them.

And 1366 on ventilators (v 478 today) this is 35% of them.

On the nearest Monday to then (Mondays are always lower due to weekend limited registration) the deaths were 215 v 6 today. A huge drop you do not need a percentage to see (is about 35 times smaller)



There were 33, 552 cases on the downslope coming out of the wave on 23 January - after the peak of all numbers that week.

On that day there were 37, 398 patients( in UK hospitals (v 3392 today) this is just 9%

And 4066 ventilators (v 478 today) this is just 11.8% of them.~

On 25 January (nearest Monday again) there were 592 deaths (v 6) - as you can see 1% of the total.


Going into the wave versus coming out is obviously more comparative.



So this suggests about 6 times more people were in hospital then without vaccines as now

And 3 times as many were ventilated - though more now might be on them as a precaution because there is that leeway that did not exist with so many more Covid patients then v now.

And a large number of people who would have died - between 35 and 100 times fewer are no longer dying.

THAT is the message to take on board as it is why we are opening up at what seems like a crazy time to do so.

 

[grunge]

Israel opened up fully and then reversed it with mandatory mask wearing.

Netherlands has just done the same and closed nightclubs.

I expect England to do the same at some point.

It seems it needs saying again, lockdowns, masks, etc aren't to stop covid they are to prevent health systems from being swamped.

we 100% should have stuck with masks for a fair while yet.

 

[tolmie's hairdoo]

My 10-year-old daughter told to isolate for ten days today after a girl tested positive in her class.

That is now her fourth time in six months, five for my son since December.

Independent learners well before their time, very proud of their commitment and application.

Must admit, getting end of my tether, as it basically means I also have to isolate as she is too young to be left home alone!!

 

[Manchester1894]

we 100% should have stuck with masks for a fair while yet.

If our health service can cope - it's on people to get vaccinated to avoid any further restrictions.

 

[Tb1981]

My 10-year-old daughter told to isolate for ten days today after a girl tested positive in her class.

That is now her fourth time in six months, five for my son since December.

Independent learners well before their time, very proud of their commitment and application.

Must admit, getting end of my tether, as it basically means I also have to isolate as she is too young to be left home alone!!

I know that feeling
Got my kids off school at moment too
I honestly don’t know how I got through the first lockdown last year