Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Full GM details


Total cases 2043- UP 273 on Yesterday - from NW rise of 538

Rather over the expected par (42%) of 226.


Wk to wk UP 365 when the NW ROSE by 824 - again Little over the expected 346,


Not terribly so but GM was rather over the averages in the wrong way today.



BOROUGH / CASES TODAY / V YESTERDAY / V LAST WEEK



BOLTON 143 / UP 29 / UP 29

BURY 141 / UP 52 / UP 46

MANCHESTER 386 / UP 57 / UP 74

OLDHAM 216 / UP 35 / UP 30

ROCHDALE 200 / UP 26 / UP 54

SALFORD 185 / DOWN 5 / UP 33

STOCKPORT 195 / UP 23 / UP 67

TAMESIDE 154 / UP 23 / UP10

TRAFFORD 152 / DOWN 22 / DOWN 20

WIGAN 271 / UP 55 / UP 43



Bury best though well up to 141 highest low score in a while

Trafford down both day to day and week to week whist Stockport was not so good again up big both day to day and week to week. As was Manchester and Wigan, And several others come to that,

Trafford actually gained 2 Pop Score points back as a result, First time in weeks,

Not really a good day in GM. But that may change tomorrow the way these numbers are so volatile.
 
Greater Manchester

Weekly total cases:-




Bury 786, Bolton 985 , Tameside 1096 , Stockport 1244 , Trafford 1291, Rochdale 1377 , Salford 1436, Oldham 1517, Wigan 1845 , Manchester 2838



Bury and Bolton now only the only boroughs under four figures and pulling clear of the rest. Bolton nearly left Bury on its tod today, These numbers are pretty grim reading given so many were under 100 a few weeks ago,
 
tolmie's hairdoo said:
My 10-year-old daughter told to isolate for ten days today after a girl tested positive in her class.

That is now her fourth time in six months, five for my son since December.

Independent learners well before their time, very proud of their commitment and application.

Must admit, getting end of my tether, as it basically means I also have to isolate as she is too young to be left home alone!!
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Sad to hear.

Same thing happened with us this morning. We received an email from the school, five minutes before my daughter was due to start her walk to school, stating that a child in class tested positive at the weekend. Due to the short notice, she had no lessons today. Buggered up my day. I was due to go into work as I had a meeting with a director (the exec board now demand in-person meetings). Not a great look for me.

I thought school bubbles were ending on 19 July? If that's the case, then I would have thought our kids would return on that day? Not sure though.
 
Manc in London said:
Sad to hear.

Same thing happened with us this morning. We received an email from the school, five minutes before my daughter was due to start her walk to school, stating that a child in class tested positive at the weekend. Due to the short notice, she had no lessons today. Buggered up my day. I was due to go into work as I had a meeting with a director (the exec board now demand in-person meetings). Not a great look for me.

I thought school bubbles were ending on 19 July? If that's the case, then I would have thought our kids would return on that day? Not sure though.
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No sadly school bubbles are in until end of term
 
Dr fauci 99.5% of covid deaths are among those unvaccinated..going the wrong way again in the States
 
Marvin said:
The assumption there is that we are trying to restrict cases. We are not. Everyone knows now that vaccination is coming to an end for now so there is only one way out, and that's natural infection in the safest way possible which effectively amounts to as soon as possible. Drag it out and you will have infection with more serious consequences.

On an personal level I recognise we need population immunity but none of us want to be the vehicles through which we achieve that.
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Non of us on here, maybe. That said, I don't think many youth give a schidt to be honnest.
Anyway 90% of the adult population will be much better than many other places around the world. The US is already struggling to get more than 75%
 
Manc in London said:
Oh ffs. That basically means my daughter misses the last day of school for consecutive years. They are not even sure the kid who tested positive was positive while at school.
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My wife shares your pain, 3 of mine told to self isolate though they get to go back for the last day. She’s trying to catch up with work in the evening. The inconsistency is frustrating. I’m a teacher, child in my class tested positive last weekend, but PHE & LA said the class doesn’t need to isolate because the test was at the weekend. Another case today from over the weekend and a group have to self isolate, the latest word from them was confused, talking about a negative PCR test may mean a return to school.
 
Manc in London said:
Sad to hear.

Same thing happened with us this morning. We received an email from the school, five minutes before my daughter was due to start her walk to school, stating that a child in class tested positive at the weekend. Due to the short notice, she had no lessons today. Buggered up my day. I was due to go into work as I had a meeting with a director (the exec board now demand in-person meetings). Not a great look for me.

I thought school bubbles were ending on 19 July? If that's the case, then I would have thought our kids would return on that day? Not sure though.
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It turns out that the child who tested positive on the Sunday may have been positive on sports day on the previous Friday. The sports datly that was outside! The whole year 7 cohort, c240 kids, have now been sent home for 10 days.

I guess the teachers from throughout the school are needed to mark GCSE and A Level assessments so very convenient. Never mind the year 7 group who missed their SAT'S and half of their last year at primary school. Yes, I am annoyed.
 
tolmie's hairdoo said:
My 10-year-old daughter told to isolate for ten days today after a girl tested positive in her class.

That is now her fourth time in six months, five for my son since December.

Independent learners well before their time, very proud of their commitment and application.

Must admit, getting end of my tether, as it basically means I also have to isolate as she is too young to be left home alone!!
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My girlfriends daughter's the same. Pain in the backside. Proud of her though as she's got excellent marks despite everything. Though she's recently made friends with a former Utd players son, got a stern telling off she did.
 
BerkshireBlue said:
the answer is 0.1% of the cases so at the moment with 35,000 that equates to 35 deaths.
Basically not many anymore and the percentage is dropping every day, Even half a million cases is only 500 deaths which is still a third of the level it was. Too many idiots quoting case numbers around shitting themselves. At least Javid knows what he's doing
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Also, 113 deaths a day is the average number who die from flu in an average flu season (Jan-Mar). That equates to 113,000 cases of Delta a day.
 
GM Weekly Pop Data after today:~

Borough / Pop Today / 7 days ago / up or down wk to wk/ Testing is % of local population who have tested positive for Covid over past year.

As ever with Pop going up is bad, going down good - the higher the number the better or worse depending on direction moving. The Pop is total cases in past week versus 100,000 POPulation to even out the comparison versus size and expected cases based on numbers living there.



Oldham 640 / 567 / UP 73 Testing positive 12.0%

Rochdale 619 / 495 / UP 124 Testing positive 11.9%

Wigan 561 / 517 / UP 44 Testing positive 11.3%

Salford 555 / 492 / UP 63 Testing positive 11.6%

Trafford 544/ 461 / UP 83 Testing positive 9.2%

Manchester 513 / 518 / DOWN 5 Testing positive 12.3%

Tameside 484 / / 417 / UP 67 Testing positive 10.0%

Stockport 424 / 350 / UP 74 Testing positive 8.9%

Bury 412 / 389 / UP 23 Testing positive 11.3%

Bolton 343 / 301 / UP 42 Testing positive 12.2%



Oldham and Rochdale well up top now.

Wigan, Salford and Trafford all up in the 500s now after some big recent numbers.

Trafford's much better day saw it fall two places which is good after a long awful run,

It is much more used to being down the other end of this table.

Manchester back in the 500s too,

Bury and Stockport both had bad days and Stockport closed the gap whilst both rose taking Bury into the 400s now also, These two are almost up where Bolton was when it was put in special measures in April Shows how bad things are in numbers terms in GM right now.

Rarely has it seen everyone so high.

Even 'best' Bolton keeps rising and is now back where it was 6 weeks ago,


Stockport LOST 2 points on on its overall Pop Score lead over Trafford (who had the best day in GM today out of nowhere) to now only be 189 ahead of Trafford.

Stockport up 66 now on 8976 but Trafford up by 64 - to reach 9165.

Stockport as the sole occupant of the 8000 club. Until tomorrow that is!

Bolton up 50 to 12, 258. The lowest Pop Score rise today. So those measures did help!

Oldham up by 92 - most today - to enter the 12K club alongside Manchester and Bolton. On 12. 016.

Manchester up 69 - now on 12, 341 .

Rochdale up 90 - alongside Oldham as the two worst today - now on 11, 921. Will follow its neighbour into the 12K club possibly tomorrow.

Salford rose by 71 to 11, 642.

Bury up 74 to 11, 293 Allowing Stockport to catch up by on Pop Scores by 8

Wigan up by 82 to 11, 295.


So just Stockport now in the VERY UPPER 8000s - and Trafford a rung above in the 9K club

With Tameside up 68 to top 10K at 10,003. Leaving just Stockport and Trafford now not in five figures.

Stockport is the 8 K club sole occupant today - bit for long but will have 24 hours only of that and join the 9K club tomorrow bar something very odd happening. Though scoring 24 in a day to do that would have been very odd in a different sense as that would be a high daily number for most of GM. But nobody has been that low for weeks now.
 
GM VACCINE UPDATE:




Latest Vaccine Update by Population Percentage for 10 GM boroughs

Borough/ First Dose / Both Doses - TODAY V YESTERDAY


BOLTON 77.3% / 59.8% V 77.2% / 59.7% Up 0.2

BURY 78.7% / 61.2% V 78.6% / 60.7% Up 0.6

MANCHESTER 61.9% / 41.6% V 61.9% / 41.5% Up 0.1

OLDHAM 73.9% / 56.3% V 73.8% / 56.2% Up 0.2

ROCHDALE 74.8% / 57.2% V 74.8% / 57.0% Up 0.2

SALFORD 68.9 % / 47.3% V 68.8% / 47.1% Up 0.3

STOCKPORT 83.2% / 64.6% V 83.2% / 64.4% Up 0.2

TAMESIDE 78.7% / 62.2% V 78.6 / 62.1% Up 0.2

TRAFFORD 80.7% / 62.7% V 80.7/ 62.7% UP Zilch!

WIGAN 82.%1 / 64.0% V 82.1% / 63.9% Up 0.1


Bury did extraordinarily well to manage 0.6% today.

As you see Trafford managed a round ZERO, First time that has happened since I have been doing these lists.

But small rises were common showing it is getting harder to get jabs in arms.

Though I guess many had distractions yesterday!
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Modelling has been released alongside today's announcement.

Makes it very clear we should buckle up for a bumpy ride, and also why Johnson has changed his tune on the need for caution.

Summary

The scale of the resurgence in hospital admissions after 19th July is highly uncertain and depends on unknowable factors including how behaviours change in the coming weeks and months. Many modelled scenarios show a peak in hospital admissions well below that of January 2021, but SPI-M-O cannot rule out a wave of a similar or even larger scale

How fast people's behaviour returns to normal is a key uncertainty; a rapid return to pre-pandemic mixing will bring high, rapid spike, potentially though not necessarily likely above the January peak for hospitalisations. In other words, if we all regard "Freedom day" as actually being "Freedom day" then we're fucked.

If behaviours take longer to return to pre-pandemic levels (and / or if the seasonal effect of transmission is higher), then the peak of the summer resurgence is likely to be lower. This would result in a wave that is broader, or partially shifted to autumn and winter

The good news is

The next peak in deaths will almost certainly be considerably smaller than that of January 2021.

There's gazillions of different sensitivities explored in the report but just for instance, here's total hospital occupancy with different assumptions on behaviour returning to normal. I don't understand why the "Spring 2020 peak" line is lower than the shown peak(!) but it gives a general impression of the uncertainty of the impact of behavioural change. There's no difference in vaccine assumptions between those scenarios.

View attachment 21199


I've not looked at any of the assumptions on vaccine efficacy and takeup, but they're all in there, and I know there are posters who like to run the ruler over them.
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If the trends recently shown by Healdplace are correct, they've totally over egged the pudding again.
 
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BlueAnorak said:
Your showing Hospitalisations I'm talking about deaths.
Also the last point seems to be driving the slope he's describing. Talk about selecting figures to suit your opinion...
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Deaths don’t overwhelm the NHS though.

By disregarding hospitalisations, aren’t you selecting figures to suit your opinion?
 
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