Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Boris speaking live now - 'the worst of the pandemic is behind us' he says IF we follow the advice and be cautious.

At least he s trying to be positive.
 
denislawsbackheel said:
Spanish flu took three years.
The second year was the worst.
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Yes there were three waves I believe. But it was at its height for not much over 2 years.

But my point was it had a meaningful end point. Though I am not sure it ever really vanished. And it was terrible at the time. I am old enough to have had relatives who lived through it and talked about the family members who died (young people like the ones catching Covid now were hit most back then it seems).

It was much like Covid to those at the time devastating families that had already just been devastated by the slaughter of Word War 1. Or the Great War as they called it then as nobody was ever thinking that humanity would be up for a replay.

But even without the amazing options we have now to tackle it there was a start and end point,

Is there really the same optimism this is not just becoming endemic and never ending as it mutates as necessary to thrive?

I would like to know if our future is to have to manage risk indefinitely or is there a genuine possibility this will end in a way that risk is so low it will never need precautions and occasional lockdowns?

I think most people see that as the goal. But is it a credible one? I am starting to wonder as I never expected such a big wave in Summer AFTER we have almost reached vaccine saturation point.
 
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feelymcfeel said:
Recent studies of contemporary analysis suggest that the Spanish Flu was no more aggressive than regular flu, but the aftermath of WW1 was what precipitated such a high death toll.
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Really?
So how come it killed millions in countries untouched by WW1?
 
feelymcfeel said:
Recent studies of contemporary analysis suggest that the Spanish Flu was no more aggressive than regular flu, but the aftermath of WW1 was what precipitated such a high death toll.
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It started on ships crammed full with soldiers being repatriated from the trenches. A bit like Easyjet flights to Spain of the day. But it was most dangerous to those under 25 I understand. Hence a lot of repatriated soldiers got sick and spread it when they got back in the US or all parts of the then British Empire.

There was a documentary out there where hundreds on a ship that took a week or so to get from one point to another died mid sail with no way to tackle it in cramped conditions that just let it rip,

Rather like where we are headed in the next few weeks by inviting such catch covid parties to celebrate freedom day.

That same documentary also explained how many lives were saved in Manchester by the chief medic at the time imposing lockdowns that were not then a known thing (though not new - it is in effect what the villagers at Eyam did hundreds of years before) but that clearly stalled the spread. I had no idea the city was the origin of this tactic in a formalised way. But they had little medical options then of course. So anything that helped was like the vaccine of the day.
 
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Healdplace said:
Yes there were three waves I believe. But it was at its height for not much over 2 years.

But my point was it had a meaningful end point. Though I am not sure it ever really vanished. And it was terrible at the time. I am old enough to have had relatives who lived through it and talked about the family members who died (young people like the ones catching Covid now were hit most back then it seems).

It was much like Covid to those at the time devastating families that had already just been devastated by the slaughter of Word War 1. Or the Great War as they called it then as nobody was ever thinking that humanity would be up for a replay.

But even without the amazing options we have now to tackle it there was a start and end point,

Is there really the same optimism this is not just becoming endemic and never ending as it mutates as necessary to thrive?

I would like to know if our future is to have to manage risk indefinitely or is there a genuine possibility this will end in a way that risk is so low it will never need precautions and occasional lockdowns?

I think most people see that as the goal. But is it a credible one? I am starting to wonder as I never expected such a big wave in Summer AFTER we have almost reached vaccine saturation point.
Click to expand...

read a thoroughly depressing thread on twitter that said if the R of Delta is 6 as reported and the effectiveness of the vaccine in preventing tranmission is 80% as reported, then 98% of the population will need to be vaccinated or infected to achieve HI.

I think next think that makes it really managable is some very effective anti virals that stop it progressing once caught

but i’ve heard next to nothing on those
 
denislawsbackheel said:
Really?
So how come it killed millions in countries untouched by WW1?
Click to expand...

See below.

Healdplace said:
It started on ships crammed full with soldiers being repatriated from the trenches. A bit like Easyjet flights to Spain of the day. But it was most dangerous to those under 25 I understand. Hence a lot of repatriated soldiers got sick and spread it when they got back in the US or all parts of the then British Empire.
Click to expand...
 
Del_Bosque said:
read a thoroughly depressing thread on twitter that said if the R of Delta is 6 as reported and the effectiveness of the vaccine in preventing tranmission is 80% as reported, then 98% of the population will need to be vaccinated or infected to achieve HI.

I think next think that makes it really managable is some very effective anti virals that stop it progressing once caught

but i’ve heard next to nothing on those
Click to expand...
Are we not that far off that figure? I thought something approaching 90% of the adult population now has antibodies through vaccination or infection? I'm talking adult population only of course
 
Healdplace said:
It started on ships crammed full with soldiers being repatriated from the trenches. A bit like Easyjet flights to Spain of the day. But it was most dangerous to those under 25 I understand. Hence a lot of repatriated soldiers got sick and spread it when they got back in the US or all parts of the then British Empire.

There was a documentary out there where hundreds on a ship that took a week or so to get from one point to another died mid sail with no way to tackle it in cramped conditions that just let it rip,

Rather like where we are headed in the next few weeks by inviting such catch covid parties to celebrate freedom day.

That same documentary also explained how many lives were saved in Manchester by the chief medic at the time imposing lockdowns that were not then a known thing but that clearly stalled the spread. I had no idea the city was the origin of this tactic, But they had little medical ways out then of course. So anything that helped was like the vaccine of the day.
Click to expand...
I believe it was first detected in Fort Riley, Kansas, after which it was transported via ship to Europe.
 
Del_Bosque said:
read a thoroughly depressing thread on twitter that said if the R of Delta is 6 as reported and the effectiveness of the vaccine in preventing tranmission is 80% as reported, then 98% of the population will need to be vaccinated or infected to achieve HI.

I think next think that makes it really managable is some very effective anti virals that stop it progressing once caught

but i’ve heard next to nothing on those
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Question is what variant will 'improve' on Delta given how incredibly impressive it has been at taking over once it is seeded. If there is something 'better' than that we are surely going to be in big trouble?
 
Healdplace said:
Question is what variant will 'improve' on Delta given how incredibly impressive it has been at taking over once it is seeded. If there is something 'better' than that we are surely going to be in big trouble?
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In virus terms better is less deadly, so usually mutate to something akin to cold or flu. This is what may have happened to the Spanish flu. It killed who it was gonna kill then faded away to a less deadly flu.
 
Gabriel said:
I believe it was first detected in Fort Riley, Kansas, after which it was transported via ship to Europe.
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I recall that documentary referring to this - but - really we will never know where it originated - just where it first spread fast. The Spanish flu name is misleading as nobody knows - just that it was very virulent like Delta and with no knowledge or ability to stop it ripped through the celebrating younger people who then passed it on across their welcoming families.

We have come a long way in the 103 years since in science and medicine and we would of course now identify a bad variant in some country and ensure it was kept out or as far as possible not allowed to spread.

We would not invite the world to come and meet up and mix and see if we could break the record for Covid case numbers in one day.
 
It's all a bit bleak at the moment.

I too can't see an endgame to all this shit at the moment. The euphoria of the original vaccines although reducing deaths aren't stopping the spread or new variants appearing which is going to carry on until we can stop the spread worldwide.

Although generally a miserable fucker I'm only normally a moaner about minor miscellaneous stuff but this now seems like that light at the end of the tunnel is getting further away again.
 
Elbow beards said:
In virus terms better is less deadly, so usually mutate to something akin to cold or flu. This is what may have happened to the Spanish flu. It killed who it was gonna kill then faded away to a less deadly flu.
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True - except Covid is not flu. We can hope but I am not sure anyone is expecting it to mutate into a less deadly version. It is not trying to kill people, obviously. It is simply we have little defence. Our fault not the virus. But like expecting City to abdicate when 1-0 up in a cup tie versus Altrincham as we would have felt sorry if we scored 15. Not unless Gareth Southgate becomes manager anyway

What we need to know is does multiple vaccinations and / or exposure to each new strain tot up our immunity to a point where we can regard it as a threat no worse than something else out there that we do not constantly think is out to get us and as such brings the world as we knew it to a halt?

May be a while before we know the answers to that one, of course, frustratingly.

We are in far far better place than we were. But do not look that much nearer to this being over in a sense beyond the rhetoric of things like freedom day.
 
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Healdplace said:
Question is what variant will 'improve' on Delta given how incredibly impressive it has been at taking over once it is seeded. If there is something 'better' than that we are surely going to be in big trouble?
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Can I ask how we know that all these positive cases are the new Delta variant? I’m assuming most people who are testing positive are doing so on the PCR kits and I didn’t think it told you what variant it was. Genuine question btw.
 
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