Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Twitter is hilarious. So many rowing in behind independent Sage saying how real life is wrong and the models are actually right!

Don’t get me wrong, I don’t for one second think that it’s over and I agree with @roubaixtuesday and @Healdplace that we need to see a few weeks of data before making any serious judgement. But by god it’s all got a bit tribal hasn’t it?! You’re either a lockdown fanatic or a covid denier judging by this board. Most people just want things to be ok but understand it’s not just going to happen because we want it to, right? Although I do think that some will struggle to make the transition to normality and no matter when the government relaxed all restrictions they would hate it. That’s not a covid issue though that’s a messaging and behaviour issue that the government have been feeding for the last 18 months.
 
davealvers said:
You’re either a lockdown fanatic or a covid denier judging by this board
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To be fair I think there's plenty of sensible here too.

Very hard to explain the very big falls seen these last few days, hence the caution, but very good to see them nonetheless. Best week of data since delta, by a mile.
 
johnnymarrsbarres said:
Glad you’re on the mend.

The whole taste and smell thing is weird. I had what I assume was flu a few years ago (2016). Was really ill for about 10 days. Just as I was starting to feel better I met someone for a drink one night. Had a glass of wine and it tasted like petrol! I thought it was off at first but the other person said it was fine.

Took a further week for my taste buds to return to normal.

Maybe I was patient zero and never knew it. Or I had some other weird virus that wasn’t flu.
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Could be, did you eat bat soup, pangolin sushi or make love to a chimpanzee without a rubber?
 
johnnymarrsbarres said:
This is the point I was making.

I’ve got a phobia of hospitals and medical stuff in general, and particularly needles.

I had a panic attack in the waiting area after my first jab. But it’s got to be done. I see it as a civic duty.

Sorry for having zero time for thick cunts living in the first world who refuse vaccines. There’s people in this world dying in agony without access to even basic medical care let alone literally a menu of vaccines like we do in the western world.

Stupid people dying of stupid…ah well
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Well said mate, we don't realise how lucky we are to have all had the vaccine.
 
Healdplace said:
As I have posted for weeks there did seem a risky strategy at play to race vaccine/herd immunity levels rising together via fast spreading cases amongst the least badly impacted who were saying no to vaccines with the knowledge it would likely not peak hospital numbers too badly in the Summer.

As I have also said day by day as it appeared the peaking in Scotland and North West - the first two into the Delta wave - had become now pretty hard to deny over the past couple of weeks and not just the past few days - because the data in THOSE areas had had enough time for it to show that it has filtered into the hospital numbers now - so is clearly real not test related.

Again as I have kept stressing the NUMBER of tests means less than the positivity rating FROM those tests. That is falling too where cases have been going down - eg Scotland. More evidence it is real not just some lab glitch.

Most expected the other regions to take over that increase from Scotland and NW where the falls are not so much a surprise on the first into a wave first out of it principle - as the other regions clearly were until a few days ago but not at a remarkable upward level.

As I also have suggested (and thats all it is - ie a guess) perhaps the time bought for these other regions before Delta spread there was enough to edge up levels of immunity via added weeks of jabbing to tip the balance and lower their peaks to below expectation.

This MIGHT be what is happening. But it is for now speculation, and just by me not any kind of expert.

And until we see it filtering through to falls in hospital days in those other regions - which ARE currently going up - then it is wise to be cautiously optimistic as that is the most balanced way to view what might be happening.

If it is panning out like that it will be very good news, obviously.

But scientists are cautious and most will wait for finalised data to be sure,

But they will be just as hopeful this is for real and will be sustained.

Only time will tell.
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Thank you for your posts throughout the pandemic
 
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