Coronavirus (2021) thread

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bobbyowenquiff said:
I am a big supporter of vaccination and am double jabbed but you are correct. Being double jabbed doesn't stop you getting Covid and infecting other people. The research has shown that being fully vaccinated prevents around 50 per cent of people getting Covid and reduces the chance of being hospitalised by 95 per cent. That's great and shows it is well worth getting vaccinated but the concept of a passport is clearly flawed if you can still pass on the virus. This policy will just give ammunition to the anti-vaxxers and make people even more polarised than they are now.
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Anti-vaxxers cannot comprehend the numbers behind vaccination and that's the problem. It's true that vaccination doesn't stop you getting COVID in all cases but in many cases it does. If we could of stopped even 20% of transmission in Jan/March last year then the pandemic would never have started. The impact of the vaccines cannot be understated.

It's precisely why at the moment cases remain stable at a time when there are few to no restrictions. In December last year we had to go into lockdown with the exact same number of cases because healthcare was swamped and it was leading to thousands of deaths per day.

Today the same number of cases has resulted in level cases and at best 100-200 deaths per day, a 90% decrease from 9 months ago. That's incredible and it only goes to show how much the vaccines have made an impact. The vaccines are the only thing that allow us to watch city in a stadium or to see our family which is again why it's so important to get vaccinated.

Just look at it like this, the vast majority of infections are in younger people which is the age group that is least vaccinated. The scale then decreases linearly by age, IE, the more vaccinated groups have less infections. If we vaccinate more younger people then we should expect cases to fall even more dramatically. The net result is this ends even more transmission and that means less older people or unvaccinated people will get ill and die.

Vaccine passports are one way to get people vaccinated and to keep venues safe by ending these transmission chains and that's the key.
 
bobbyowenquiff said:
I am a big supporter of vaccination and am double jabbed but you are correct. Being double jabbed doesn't stop you getting Covid and infecting other people. The research has shown that being fully vaccinated prevents around 50 per cent of people getting Covid and reduces the chance of being hospitalised by 95 per cent. That's great and shows it is well worth getting vaccinated but the concept of a passport is clearly flawed if you can still pass on the virus. This policy will just give ammunition to the anti-vaxxers and make people even more polarised than they are now.
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This is a numbers game - it's not about reducing transmission to zero but to a level where it is manageable (both in terms of transmission and the impact on the NHS). It is impossible to eradicate Covid (only one disease in the hostory of mankind has ever been completely eradicated - smallpox) but it is possible to get it to a point where it can be considered acceptable whilst not impacting wider society in terms of restrictions etc. This is the 'living with Covid' that has been talked about and is arguably where we are at now.
 
True_Blue69 said:
Totally agree, but there are also the extremes on the other side who would quite happily vaccinate a pregnant hamster if they read it might help.
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Interested to hear who these "extremes" are.

Is this the MHRA, who approved the vaccine for 12 yos back in June?

Or some other "extremes"?
 
Hard to predict what the cases will be like in a week or so now that all England schools are back. It is almost impossible to think there will be no increase as school age has been one of the biggest age range even catching this when not all mixing together in class.

And we saw a significant jump in Scotland - from around 2000 to around 7000 - so a 3 or 4 or times increase in the weeks after their earlier return.

However, there are other factors. We opened up in many other ways over the past few weeks which will have impacted that too - and England has stayed fairly stable - though numbers have ticked up a bit over the past few days.

How these balance out and how long they stay high as Autumn arrives will be key. England is much bigger than Scotland so a 3 times rise here would take 25K cases to 75K and 80 - 90K in the whole UK.

As raw numbers these will be of minimal concern as the younger ones mostly catching it likely will nearly all not get very sick. But some will and some spread to their more vulnerable family is inevitable who will need help - so the hospital numbers are crucial.

In Scotland in that period of rising cases patients and ventilated patients have doubled.

In England that would mean taking around 6000 to around 12,000 and pushing 15,000 in UK hospitals.

That is under half where we were last Winter but well above where we have been.

And as Winter arrives and flu strikes and other Winter diseases the pressures will mount unless the schools uptick is short lived.

We have to watch carefully what happens in Scotland as they have the head start and likely reveal what will happen - but with much bigger numbers - in England. But Scotland does seem to have fairly quickly flattened and IF they start to fall significantly then we can be hopeful the England school impact will not get out of control and require stricter measures.

The next two or three weeks are going to be vital. The hospital data will take a week or so to start to be impacted by any cases rise so we really will not see that change drastically until next week at the earliest.

And that hospital data is the thing to watch more than the headlines saying cases rise from 37K to 57K in a week - or whatever.
 
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WALES DATA

THIS IS FOR SATURDAY & SUNDAY

CANNOT COMPARE WITH LAST WEEK AS NOTHING WAS REPORTED DUE TO BANK HOLIDAY _ BUT 3872 WERE REPORTED THE NEXT DAY AND 3328 THE DAY AFTER WITH 6 DEATHS IN TOTAL WHICH WILL INCLUDE THE SAME TWO DAYS PLUS POSSIBLY TWO OTHERS

8 Deaths

5161 Cases - highest ever in Wales but at 2580 per day not far off the 2389 from Friday.

12.2% positivity - was 10.4% Friday
 
DMA's said:
I can’t believe people actually react this way to somebody dying. What the fuck has happened to this world. He has a family for fuck sake, yes he made a huge mistake but that doesn’t mean we should be fucking celebrating the fact he died saying it makes your day etc.

There is now three children without a dad and despite what he wrongly believed I still feel compassion for his family.

Posts like yours truly sicken me.
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Pricks like this have caused more people to die of covid than necessary and maybe their death will cause a few of their followers to think twice. Obviously, "makes my day" was an exaggeration.
That doesn't mean that I don't feel compassion for his family. (I only read wat was posted and nothing that was posted mentioned he had a family).
 
WEEKEND ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS

SURRISINGLY GOOD NEWS HERE

SAT:- 91 WITH 22 NORTH WEST - Was 85 with 10 NW last week & 75 with 17 NW week before

SUN 26 WITH 4 NORTH WEST - Was 31 with 4 NW last week & 10 with 1 NW week before

TODAY 12 WITH 1 NORTH WEST - Was 20 with 1 NW last week & 18 with 4 NW week before


So weekend total: This week 129 - last week was 136 & week before 103 week before

By regions (Day by Day - Sat + Sun + Today) :

EAST 6 + 3 + 4 = 13

LONDON 11 + 0 + 0 = 11

MIDLANDS 24 + 10 + 6 = 40

NE & YORKSHIRE 20 + 0 + 0 = 20

NORTH WEST 22 + 4 + 1 = 27

SOUTH EAST 0 + 9 + 0 = 9

SOUTH WEST 8 + 0 + 1 = 9
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS - MORE DETAILS


BY AGE:-

SAT 0 - 19 (1) , 20 - 39 (2), 40 - 59 (8), 60 - 79 (45), 80 PLUS (35)

SUN 20 - 39 (1), 40 - 59 (4), 60 - 79 (10), 80 PLUS (11)

TODAY 0 - 19 (1) 40 - 59 (1), 60 - 79 (4), 80 PLUS (6)


TOTAL 0 - 19 (2), 20 - 39 (3) 40 - 59 (13), 60 - 79 (59) , 80 PLUS 52)


NOTE 5 MORE UNDER 40 DIED THIS WEEKEND AND TWO OF THEM 19 OR UNDER. FOR THOSE SAYING THE RISK TO SCHOOLCHILDREN IS MINIMAL. YES IT IS BUT IT IS CLEARLY NOT ZERO.
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS

NORTH WEST TRUSTS

Bolton 1. East Lancashire 5, Lancaster 1, Liverpool 5, Manchester 4, Morecambe 1, Pennine Acute 2, Salford 1, St Helens 1,Southport 1, Tameside 3, Warrington 2
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS

Things can change as the week goes on and weekend data is always low and tomorrow will be a big catch up.

But at the moment the week to week comparison of death numbers are DOWN for first time in a while.

The last 4 days of totals at 5 days is:- 69 - 73 - 77 - 62 = 281

The same numbers last week were:- 78 - 71 - 82 - 57 = 288

Not a big difference and tomorrow may change things but this is the first time these numbers have not risen, let alone fell, in 4 or 5 weeks.
 
SCOTLAND DATA

SADLY NO GOOD NEWS HERE AT ALL

0 deaths - was 0 last week - always 0 on Mondays due to registration closures

7065 - was 3893 last week - DOUBLES IN WEEK

14.5% positivity - was 14.1% last week - THOUGH THIS IS UP A LOT SO MORE TESTS TODAY

771 patients - was 719 yesterday & 551 last week

71 Ventilated ICU - was 61 yesterday & 52 last week

THIS HOSPITAL DATA IS NOWSTARTING TO LOOK A LITTLE CONCERNING

IF THIS HAPPENS IN ENGLAND THE NUMBERS WILL GROW MUCH BIGGER THAN IN SCOTLAND DUE TO THE POPULATION LEVELS

AND THE HESITATION OVER OFFERING VACCINES TO SCHOOL AGES MAY BE REVERSED - THOUGH BY THEN TOO LATE.

HOWEVER WE COULD DO WITH KNOWING HOW MANY OF THESE PATIENTS ARE UNDER 18. I SUSPECT NOT AS MANY AS WE FEAR. IF SO THAT WILL IMPACT THE DECISION ON VACCINATING THE YOUNG
 
NORTHERN IRELAND DATA

CASES UP BUT HUGE SCHOOL TESTING FROM THE WEEKLY NUMBERS

9 deaths - was 6 last week

1764 cases - was 1259 last week

7.3% positivity - was 8.1% last week (lots of testing this week so positivity very similar)

7 DAY WEEKLY CASES 10, 024 - WAS 11, 886 LAST WEEK

134 CARE HOME OUTBREAKS - WAS 134 LAST WEEK

407 Patients - Was 409 Friday & 452 last week

36 Ventilated - was 38 Friday & 32 last week

AS YOU SEE THE HOSPITAL DATA IS BETTER THAN THE CASES INFER - PROBABLY AS SO MANY CASES ARE CHILDREN WHO WILL NOT GO INTO HOSPITAL
 
DMA's said:
I can’t believe people actually react this way to somebody dying. What the fuck has happened to this world. He has a family for fuck sake, yes he made a huge mistake but that doesn’t mean we should be fucking celebrating the fact he died saying it makes your day etc.

There is now three children without a dad and despite what he wrongly believed I still feel compassion for his family.

Posts like yours truly sicken me.
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a lot of toss pots on bluemoon these days im afraid,some posters need the ban hammer out
 
NORTHERN IRELAND WEEKLY CASES BY AGE

0 - 19 (3552) 35.4%

20 - 39 2911) 29.1%

40 - 59 (2330) 23.2%

60 - 79 (947) 9.5%

80 PLUS (283) 2.8%


AS YOU CAN SEE THE SCHOOL AGES ARE NOW BACK AS EASILY THE MOST TESTING POSITIVE.

AND THE OLDER AGES HAVE EDGES DOWN A FRACTION.

WHY CASES ARE NOT THE REAL ISSUE AND HOW MANY END UP IN HOSPITAL IS MORE VITAL
 
So the total deaths today are 29 with England out of hospital to come.

Last week at this stage it was 26 (though Wales was missing).

That became 48 later on all settings.
 
And the three nations cases total with England still to come are 13, 990 - which I think is another new record.

Last week (no Wales data though remember) the number was 5152 - so we are over 8000 up before we start with England!

England later added 21, 324 to total 26, 476.

Yesterday England added 27, 022. To the total of 37,011.

So it seems unlikely we will stay below 40,000 today.
 
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