Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Healdplace]

ZOE APP NEWS

TODAY'S UPDATE

NUMBERS STILL GOING UP AND SETTING NEW RECORDS BUT HINTING AT A SLOWDOWN

Predicted cases are

UP TO 66, 033 FROM 65, 774 - a rise of of 259 after rises of 1008, 1442, 902, 237,1389, 2670, 2416 in the days before.

HIGHEST NUMBER ZOE HAS EVER RECORDED

It WAS 58, 126 last week - a RISE week to week of 7907 - after rises of 10, 064, 9732, 12, 390, 12, 171, 14, 240 and 14, 496 in past few days. So looking to be flattening off.




Ongoing symptomatic cases UP too again-


FROM 809, 078 TO 823, 155 a rise of 14, 077 after rises of 16, 345, 18, 178, 15, 434, 14, 819, 17, 407, 18, 305 on previous days. Way above any point we have been before. And sobering to think pushing ONE MILLION people in the UK have Covid right now. BUT the lowest rise in past week is hopeful.

IT WAS 708, 590 last week. BIG weekly RISE of 100, 488 following rises of 138, 573, 126, 432 110, 908,
94, 757, 74, 938, 61, 132 in previous days.

SO AGAIN THE FIRST DROP IN THE WEEK TO WEEK RISE IN THE PAST WEEK OF HUGE RISES

DEFINITELY A MORE HOPEFUL LOOK THAT NUMBERS MAY BE STARTING TO PEAK


There is always a lag to the change in ongoing cases after a rise or fall in daily case numbers as ongoing cases persist and are not just counted on the day of first report

 

[grunge]

It is airborne and it’s not “rare”.

The experts initially believed that it was droplet transmission that caused all cases, now the opposite is true. Not sure why you think that’s remotely controversial.

I never said virus size had changed, it was always small enough to penetrate all but an N99 mask. But Delta is far more transmissible and requires a much smaller viral load to cause infection.

So to repeat, someone asked why so few are still wearing masks, my answer, which I stand by, is that it’s because they’re fairly useless (at protecting the wearer).

You said.

almost useless against Delta which is airborne and not just spread via droplet.

Clearly stating Detla has made the virus airbone, which is hasn't. Nothing has changed. At most some places are changing there wording on advice to mention it.

Even in your own links it shows its "rare" in terms of the scope of transmission.

The agency added that the term “airborne” has a specific medical meaning that applies to diseases such as measles, which transmit predominantly through the air and across long distances. “For covid-19,” WHO added, “the virus predominantly spreads through close, or direct, contact, or possibly contaminated surfaces. That is why it is not called an airborne virus.”

In other words, the agency is currently of the opinion that viral transmission by aerosols, while possible for covid-19, is not the main route by which SARS-CoV-2 spreads.

the simple fact that the Virus hasn't changed shows that masks are a significant mitigating factor in the spread of Covid19 as the majority of cases come from Droplets which masks do help stop. here is tons of evidence for it.

 

[SWP's back]

Clearly stating Detla has made the virus airbone

It does absolutely nothing of the sort. Don’t blame me for your poor comprehension.

 

[SWP's back]

as the majority of cases come from Droplets which masks do help stop.

Also not true, read the Bloomberg link and you’re misquoting or misunderstanding this sentence “the virus predominantly spreads through close, or direct, contact, or possibly contaminated surfaces.”

droplet - ie “contaminated surfaces” is 3rd of 3 and follows the word “possibly”.

Close or direct contact is exactly how airborne pathogens spread.

Weird hill to die on but carry on if you must.

 

[SWP's back]

Some more links:

Two studies suggest that newer variants of the coronavirus are better at traveling through the air. (Published 2021)

www.nytimes.com

“
Newer variants of the coronavirus like Alpha and Delta are highly contagious, infecting far more people than the original virus. Two new studies offer a possible explanation: The virus is evolving to spread more efficiently through air.

The realization that the coronavirus is airborne indoors transformed efforts to contain the pandemic last year, igniting fiery debates about masks, social distancing and ventilation in public spaces.

Most researchers now agree that the coronavirus is mostly transmitted through large droplets that quickly sink to the floor and through much smaller ones, called aerosols, that can float over longer distances indoors and settle directly into the lungs, where the virus is most harmful.

The new studies don’t fundamentally change that view. But the findings signal the need for better masks in some situations, and indicate that the virus is changing in ways that make it more formidable.

“This is not an Armageddon scenario,” said Vincent Munster, a virologist at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, who led one of the new studies. “It is like a modification of the virus to more efficient transmission, which is something I think we all kind of expected, and we now see it happening in real time.”

Is the Coronavirus Getting Better at Airborne Transmission? (Published 2021)

The Alpha variant traveled more efficiently in small droplets, two new studies found. The Delta variant may have continued this evolution.

www.nytimes.com

 

[grunge]

It does absolutely nothing of the sort.

It really does. If you had said "Covid" was airborne then that's one thing. you said "Delta". meaning the Delta variant is different to other variants, you may not have meant it that way, but thats what it says.

Also not true, read the Bloomberg link.

I don't think that link says what you think it says, there is nothing in there that says the majority of transmission comes from Airbone, just that some does and that overhauling air filtration systems could help.

Even the expert they are quoting as being the person who pressured the WHO to acknowledge Aerosol transmission states

Morawska said she hopes the attention that the pandemic has drawn to face masks and the risks associated with inhaling someone else’s exhaled breath will be a catalyst for cleaner indoor air.

simple fact is, the majority of transmission is from droplets and masks are a proven mitigating factor, Not a blocker, just a mitigation factor.

Anyways. If you go back through the Covid threads you'll find I was probably the 1st on here to mention the airborne side of it from old Dr Campbell videos where he mentioned it happening on a bus in China.

and im too busy to bother with the discussion to be honest.

 

[Healdplace]

ZOE APP DATA

TODAYS DATA

REGIONS:-

MORE RISES BUT SOME SLOWING DOWN IN REGIONS LIKE THE NORTH WEST



North West is still third in the upper watch zone and its rise was a lot lress than yesterday.


NORTH WEST UP to 1075 / 1389 FROM 1066 / 1379


UP TOP:-


THERE ARE SIX NOW IN THE HIGHEST WATCH ZONE


WALES STILL FIRST but DOWN quite a lot today on 1107 / 1537 FROM 1153 / 1590. Matching real case data today too and now hopes of being dethroned by the MIdlands or North West behind.

EAST MIDLANDS stlll in second place but also DOWN a touch on 1121 / 1486 FROM 1129 / 1494 Though Wales leadership is under threat most from here still.

Though NW now in third. And still rose today unlike the two above - though a bit further to go to catch WAles - but unless it too starts to fall might soon head for the unwanted top spot.

YORKSHIRE also falls - leaving the North West look even more isolated. Yorkshire is definitely starting to turn it round and increasing the gap behind NW now in fourth DOWN on 984 / 1328 FROM 995 / 1339

WEST MIDLANDS rises into fifth, unsurprisingly given recent real case numbers and UP biggest of anyone near the top today on 971 / 1314 FROM 956 / 1296 Quite likely to catch Yorkshire at this rate and possibly even North West as neither are far ahead.

NORTH EAST falls to sixth but still in the higher watch zone and slightly DOWN too on 887 / 1398 FROM 893 / 1407 FROM 911 / 1427

SO ONLY WEST MIDLANDS AND NORTH WEST DID NOT FALL ON ZOE TODAY IN THE UPPER WATCH ZONE. THOUGH NW RISE WAS MODEST


THERE ARE TWO ZONES BELOW THE ABOVE TOP WATCH ZONE NOW.


ALL OF THE SOUTHERN REGIONS TOGETHER FORM THE SECOND WATCH ZONE.




EAST in seventh UP quite a bit onto 831 / 1061 FROM 793 / 1017

LONDON is now eighth in UK also UP but just a little akin to NW on 754 / 966 FROM 748 / 960 FROM 734 / 942

SOUTH EAST is now the ninth region but UP similarly little on 758 / 919 FROM 752 / 913

SOUTH WEST FALLS well into tenth and lowest England region on 724 / 938 FROM 743 / 959.



HOWEVER IN THE LOWEST WATCH ZONE WE FIND BOTH NATIONS NORTH OF ENGLAND AND WALES.



SCOTLAND - not top today in eleventh- and UP slightly like the NW to 567 / 838 FROM 562 / 831

AND IN THE LEAD AS BEST IN THE UK ON ZOE BY:-

NORTHERN IRELAND UP on 302 / 1197 FROM 278 / 1137 - well clear of the rest. As its real daily cases suggest it is.

 

[Toney’s bookie]

No reason to obsess over anything, but any reason no one wants to wear masks in the shops? Seems plain daft, but maybe it'd have to go ballistic before people changed their minds.

Because we’re experiencing what is termed a ‘social ending’ to the pandemic. A pandemic can end either via a medical or social ending:

• A medical end could be where vaccine or an effective treatment is developed – this would be the most desirable option. Think of polio – an epidemic, not a pandemic – which came to a medical end with a vaccine.
• Infection and death rates plummet – also considered a medical end. That’s how the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918 ended – those infected either died or developed immunity.
• People simply get tired of living in fear, and learn to live in a world with the disease. This is considered a social ending, which is not an actual end since the disease itself doesn’t go away. In this situation the disease may continue to spread, which can delay the medical end.

This is an interesting read. You can see a good example of what it’s talking about in this very thread to be fair https://www.theverge.com/22445906/social-end-pandemic-covid-adjustment-death-vibes

 

[SWP's back]

It really does. If you had said "Covid" was airborne then that's one thing. you said "Delta". meaning the Delta variant is different to other variants, you may not have meant it that way, but thats what it says.



I don't think that link says what you think it says, there is nothing in there that says the majority of transmission comes from Airbone, just that some does and that overhauling air filtration systems could help.

Even the expert they are quoting as being the person who pressured the WHO to acknowledge Aerosol transmission states



simple fact is, the majority of transmission is from droplets and masks are a proven mitigating factor, Not a blocker, just a mitigation factor.

Anyways. If you go back through the Covid threads you'll find I was probably the 1st on here to mention the airborne side of it from old Dr Campbell videos where he mentioned it happening on a bus in China.

and im too busy to bother with the discussion to be honest.

Then read the two NYT stories and you won’t need to argue with me any longer.

They were literally the articles I’d read a couple of days ago that made me post my post which you took umbrage with and I stand by that post.

 

[grunge]

Also not true, read the Bloomberg link and you’re misquoting or misunderstanding this sentence “the virus predominantly spreads through close, or direct, contact, or possibly contaminated surfaces.”

droplet - ie “contaminated surfaces” is 3rd of 3 and follows the word “possibly”.

Close or direct contact is exactly how airborne pathogens spread.

Weird hill to die on but carry on if you must.

Sorry but you seem to be misunderstanding what Droplet transmission means, and I think this is where the confusions is. Droplet transmission is not contaminated surfaces transmission ( although it does cause contaminated surfaces ) Droplet transmission is larger droplets of spittle etc that can travel 2 meters and be breathed in or get onto mucus membranes before they fall onto a surface. Being larger droplets they have more virus in them meaning higher viral load when you do get infected from them. they last in the air a few mins at most. A mask can help remove say 50% of those large droplets from being able to travel those 2 meters as they get caught by the masks.

Once they are on a surface they are classed as surface transmission. Surface transmission has indeed been reduced to very low transmission rates.

Aerosol or proper airborne transmission are droplets so small they remain in the atmosphere for hours at a time.

You are mixing Droplet and airborne into 1 group, they are not, they are 2 very distinct modes of transmission. Droplet is the main transmission vector.